December 2023

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Threading the needle this early on in marginal conditions can be a daunting task.

Which is why I’m not surprised that the euro OP is probably ghe best case lol

[weatherwiz]

Alot of similarities, but also some striking differences between the euro and gfs at 120 hr. 

[Greg]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Alot of similarities, but also some striking differences between the euro and gfs at 120 hr. 

Exactly what I was pointing out in another post not to mention the CMC running cold which gives some pause also.

[ineedsnow]

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS still focusing on different shortwave. It uses the 12/3 shortwave to bring rain even into NNE and then behind it gets colder to set the stage for 12/5-6 sort of like the 12z…except it fails to amplify as much as 12z so it’s nothing. 

[SnowGoose69]

I am wondering if the Euro/EPS is going to out perform the GFS/GEFS/GEPS this winter...the tendency in the past has always been El Nino stay away from the GEFS and GFS, La Nina it often can school the Euro

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am wondering if the Euro/EPS is going to out perform the GFS/GEFS/GEPS this winter...the tendency in the past has always been El Nino stay away from the GEFS and GFS, La Nina it often can school the Euro

Not familiar with that as spoken here, but ... I have opined in this forum several times over the recent years that it seemed the pattern was placating the GFS biases at time - so yeah ...that's interesting.  To wit, we just spent 4 years or whatever in Nina.   Even though the Nina was at times having trouble coupling up ..but that's another debate.

Anyway, it seems when the flow type is fast/progressive, the GFS does tend to better scoring just based upon my own observations.  I don't know if that is really more identifiable in versions. NCEP's been implementing new ones like Fez candies... 

[dendrite]

Nothing scientific here, but I think they tinker with these models so much now that it’s difficult to analyze year to year trends.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nothing scientific here, but I think they tinker with these models so much now that it’s difficult to analyze year to year trends.

Beyond frustration at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nothing scientific here, but I think they tinker with these models so much now that it’s difficult to analyze year to year trends.

Yeah I feel like updates are way more frequent than years ago. I used to keep up with the updates without much effort back then and the biases were better catalogued.

Even accounting for having a much busier life outside of weather now, it’s really hard to keep up with the changes even doing searches for 15-30 minutes. 

[ineedsnow]

Weird how the Euro is on its own for early next week 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Weird how the Euro is on its own for early next week 

That’s Poundmetown 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s Poundmetown 

Weird how GFS and Canadian are so different.  Euro is very warm for CT maybe NE and NW hills cash in verbatim on Euro.  6z GFS has the wednesday snower again as a CT special.. I feel like we miss on both as both are weak shredded messes and rain showers for most. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s Poundmetown 

It’s wrongmetown

[ORH_wxman]

00z EPS are pretty skimpy for SNE. There’s a few decent members but definitely a lot less than the 12z run which isn’t a surprise when looking at the warmth of 00z OP run. 
 

06z GFS was another continuity break. Goes back to the Dec 6th idea which would be a colder look…but that idea has the least cross-model support and even the 06z GEFS aren’t that enthused. 
 

I think we’re gonna want to see some colder solutions on the 12z runs today to realistically entertain plowable snow in SNE. 

[Modfan2]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z EPS are pretty skimpy for SNE. There’s a few decent members but definitely a lot less than the 12z run which isn’t a surprise when looking at the warmth of 00z OP run. 
 

06z GFS was another continuity break. Goes back to the Dec 6th idea which would be a colder look…but that idea has the least cross-model support and even the 06z GEFS aren’t that enthused. 
 

I think we’re gonna want to see some colder solutions on the 12z runs today to realistically entertain plowable snow in SNE. 

Never mind plowable snow would just like to see a coating here to start the season

[WinterWolf]

There was a time when if the Euro was on its own with a snow event out at 4 days, we’d feel pretty confident the others would cave to the Euro.  How I miss those days. 
 

Not anymore. The Euro will cave the other way this time I’m sure. I mean, we still don’t have a consensus on which wave yet?  So I feel theEuro will fold. As Modfan said, let’s just get a coating and I’d be happy too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would consider first flakes a win, but even that seems dubious. Next two weeks are gravy.

[mahk_webstah]

Seems like prospects for significant up here have gone down but uncertainty with all the shortwaves so any cycle could bring a surprise.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've referred to these types of systems as 'busted raviolis' in the past.  I think I even half commiserated in one of those winter outlook threads that this type of system structure would be a risk.  The flow is fast and is pancaking in latitude so wave spacing/management in guidance and to a great deal in reality, ends up in neggie interference.

Anyway, I'd give it today's cycles.  I don't think data sparseness is nearly as problematic as it was about 12 years ago, a point in time when assimilation techniques appeared to improve.  But, the entire wave mechanical mass of everything passing east of 90W, from Sunday thru Tuesday, is still out over the open expanse of the eastern Pac.

The other aspect is that the Euro may have the right idea with the lead wave being more dominant, but the inconsistencies with the thermal layout from run to run is unusual for that guidance at this range.  Probably means something bad as far as 'wanting' a noel experience ( lol ), but ... the last two days have been on and off with it.

 

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There was a time when if the Euro was on its own with a snow event out at 4 days, we’d feel pretty confident the others would cave to the Euro.  How I miss those days. 
 

Not anymore. The Euro will cave the other way this time I’m sure. I mean, we still don’t have a consensus on which wave yet?  So I feel theEuro will fold. As Modfan said, let’s just get a coating and I’d be happy too. 

Euro already folded at 00z. It only had that solution yesterday that showed snow 126-132 hours out. 
 

Even in the old days that would’ve been a tough lift from that range. It’s wheelhouse was a bit closer than that. 
 

This one is still likely to change a few times but we’re probably going to want to see a colder trend at 12z to realistically get much of this forum back in the game outside of far NNE.  CNE doesn’t need too much shift colder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro already folded at 00z. It only had that solution yesterday that showed snow 126-132 hours out. 
 

Even in the old days that would’ve been a tough lift from that range. It’s wheelhouse was a bit closer than that. 
 

This one is still likely to change a few times but we’re probably going to want to see a colder trend at 12z to realistically get much of this forum back in the game outside of far NNE.  CNE doesn’t need too much shift colder. 

About 96 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.0       0.3      0.0         2.0      1.0      1.4            3.0      2.3      3.3

Hot off of the presses, Donny Ballgame goes normal at Beantown for December.....I think even I am about +1 lol

[Typhoon Tip]

It's still an interesting solution - to me - between 102 and 108+ hours, guys.

There's a clear ptype gradient happening between between 102 and ~105 hrs, to where Orange Ma is over to moderate S while large aggregated IP bombs are cutting into HFD.  and those aspects are spanning a short distance along a collapse E/S.   By 108 hours ( again ,.. talking about the Euro solution), flipping to snow at FIT with IP at ORH.  The system wanes to probably light snow for most NW of PVD by 114 hours upon exit.

It's really just placement of the low.  The 12z run yesterday had the surface features moving farther S of the latter 00z run by a couple hundred miles. Should that bump even half way back S on this next run, these aspects above likely will split the difference.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s pretty difficult for a lot of SNE right through the first couple weeks of December. Add in the warming background state and you really need nearly a perfect setup. 
 

Just not seeing it on guidance right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll also add ... the 108 hr sensible weather differences between the Euro, vs the world, are huge.  Should one or the other win along roughly a NW CT to S NH axis, than the other would have clearly busted for D 4.5   

Probably reality will manifest somewhere in between all this mess, but it'll be interesting to see if what transpires leans more one way or the other.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha... probably more damning than not but I did find one piece of legislature that 'sort of' supports the Euro agenda...

The NAVGEM,

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's still an interesting solution - to me - between 102 and 108+ hours, guys.

There's a clear ptype gradient happening between between 102 and ~105 hrs, to where Orange Ma is is over to moderate S while large aggregated IP bombs are cutting into HFD.  and those aspects are spanning a short distance along a collapse E/S.   By 108 hours ( again ,.. talking about the Euro solution), flipping to snow at FIT with IP at ORH.  The system wanes to probably light snow for most NW of PVD by 114 hours upon exit.

It's really just placement of the low.  The 12z run yesterday had the surface features moving farther S of the latter 00z run by a couple hundred miles. Should that bump even half way back S on this next run, these aspects above likely will split the difference.

Hoping for something my last snowpiles are almost gone at the end of the driveway.. I wanted to try and keep them until April lol

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro already folded at 00z. It only had that solution yesterday that showed snow 126-132 hours out. 
 

Even in the old days that would’ve been a tough lift from that range. It’s wheelhouse was a bit closer than that. 
 

This one is still likely to change a few times but we’re probably going to want to see a colder trend at 12z to realistically get much of this forum back in the game outside of far NNE.  CNE doesn’t need too much shift colder. 

Ehh…it’s still pretty close to the 4 day window was my point, especially if it didn’t fold at 0z.(didn’t realize it had already folded lol)It isn’t anything special anymore, and hasn’t been for quite a while. So disappointing how they ruined that model. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hoping for something my last snowpiles are almost gone at the end of the driveway.. I wanted to try and keep them until April lol

You know ... I arrived home from Thanks Giving week travels and there was no sign it had ever snowed - assuming Ayer was in the snowing region.

Because I was away in the mid Atlantic ... I have yet to see it actually snowing yet this year. I suppose that it's only a little late for Novie 30 in the broader statistical sense, but It's still kind of amusing for me personally.