December 2023

[dryslot]

Last in the series of s/w trying to amplify into a cold air mass, That's probably the one to look for.

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's funny, none of the Mets in our area are biting on a wintry solution. But one of them did mention there's a possibility of a mix, but right now saying that one system looks like it's going to go to the north and one to the south of us. They don't want to talk about any possibilities of snow until it's a definite. Here's to hoping, but we'll have other opportunities. I'm sure. It's still very early

No one knows yet. If we get a wound up system interior CT will snow. If the high keeps nosing and pressing even a lighter event could happen . My guess if it happens in SNE .. it will be an elevation event.

[iceman1]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup..

whats new same old thing 

[iceman1]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're all in agreement snow will be a tall task during the first two weeks of the month in SNE.

and the last 2 weeks and Jan and so on 

[ORH_wxman]

That’s close to something big on GFS for 12/6. Meanwhile, the Canadian actually likes 12/5 for SNE. Models still trying to figure out the shortwave mess. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Cranky on it 

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1729866859980451870?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s close to something big on GFS for 12/6. Meanwhile, the Canadian actually likes 12/5 for SNE. Models still trying to figure out the shortwave mess. 

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

Fwiw, I’d root for more of a GFS look as I think it’s a much tougher lift to get any part of that 12/4-5 impulse as significant snow in SNE. 
 

It’s probably better to use that system to drive down a better antecedent airmass in its wake and set the stage for the follow up wave to amplify into that airmass. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic. 

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. 

The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, I’d root for more of a GFS look as I think it’s a much tougher lift to get any part of that 12/4-5 impulse as significant snow in SNE. 
 

It’s probably better to use that system to drive down a better antecedent airmass in its wake and set the stage for the follow up wave to amplify into that airmass. 

Agreed, was just thinking that to myself. Use that first system to sort of lay the framework for the second system. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. 

The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

The type of setup where we may not have a great idea until just 2-3 days out. This is definitely a setup where you want to pay close attention to the upper-levels and not just focus on MSLP charts. 

[WinterWolf]

Bottom line…it’s interesting, and all you can ask for at the moment.  We track. 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

and the last 2 weeks and Jan and so on 

What a ridiculous post. Sad. 

[Lava Rock]

this would suck if verified

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

this would suck if verified

Yup. Good thing it’s at hour 312. 
 

[dryslot]

12z Euro still likes 12/4 for CNE/NNE and into SNE, Pretty cold run actually, Advisory snow for some and warning snow for others.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro still likes 12/4 for CNE/NNE and into SNE, Pretty cold run actually, Advisory snow for some and warning snow for others.

Latitude.

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

this would suck if verified

Why would you post hr 312 GFS op run panel for 12/12?   lol

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Latitude.

Favored, At this time of year.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Favored, for snow totals in winter

FYP

[WxWatcher007]

That would be a fun Monday even down here.

[CoastalWx]

Just saw the good stuff roll in, not sure why it was delayed. Yeah that would be interesting.

[ORH_wxman]

That was a legit hit on the euro even for SNE. Not biting yet but there’s a nice little Hudson Bay block that forms and really holds that high in place. 

[mreaves]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh pretty please, with sugar on top?

 

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why would you post hr 312 GFS op run panel for 12/12?   lol

To be fair, Tip posted the 372 hour last night.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Normally we’d be pumped at a 126-132 solution on the euro but this thing  has been changing every run so it’s prob gonna be a couple more cycles before confidence is high  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Told y’all. She hard come 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Normally we’d be pumped at a 126-132 solution on the euro but this thing  has been changing every run so it’s prob gonna be a couple more cycles before confidence is high  

 

Yeah, some members are like this while others focus later in week. Hopefully it means we have a couple of opportunities and maybe get something.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

To be fair, Tip posted the 372 hour last night.

A met vs a weenie?    lol, I'm sure Tip had sound reasoning for posting it.

[bwt3650]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Told y’all. She hard come 

Don't know what that means, but I think you're all in.  Love to see it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Normally we’d be pumped at a 126-132 solution on the euro but this thing  has been changing every run so it’s prob gonna be a couple more cycles before confidence is high  

 

That’s how you run an early season snowstorm down here. Thread the needle