December 2023

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The only change I have really seen that is bad and probably was expected or logical is models have sort of lost how fast the change from 12/3-12/6 or so happened but that might be just the fact the air mass gets poisoned somewhat and ensembles/op runs 5 days ago probably rushed the change a bit or underestimated the time it might take to flush out the moderated pac air 

PAC trended worse in that first week of Dec than previous runs…it was already a hostile PAC but it went even more hostile. You have a solidly +EPO and a deep western trough with it. This isn’t a massive shock since you have MJO trying to force its way into the bad phases…it never reaches there in high amplitude but even weak bad phase is going to be working against us. The fact anyone in New England still has a shot at some snow during that is all due to the NAO block. 
 

PAC def becomes less hostile though after the 4th/5th or so. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PAC trended worse in that first week of Dec than previous runs…it was already a hostile PAC but it went even more hostile. You have a solidly +EPO and a deep western trough with it. This isn’t a massive shock since you have MJO trying to force its way into the bad phases…it never reaches there in high amplitude but even weak bad phase is going to be working against us. The fact anyone in New England still has a shot at some snow during that is all due to the NAO block. 
 

PAC def becomes less hostile though after the 4th/5th or so. 

Yep. We’d be torching without it. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. We’d be torching without it. 

Irony is in that ENSO thread where bluewave was showing how more recent blocks were south (therefore not helping us as much), we need this upcoming block to be a little more south to ideally keep us more in the snow game during the hostile PAC phase. A lot of these runs have it too far north and east for us.

 

But it’s probably in a very good spot once the PAC goes a little less hostile. It also starts migrating SW with time as it retrogrades. 

[George001]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are in an EL Nino

 

Yeah idk what the whole Nina background state nonsense is about. All guidance has the southern jet strengthening in early December. That doesn’t happen in Ninas, this is a strong El Niño pattern.

[George001]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are we talking about a Nina background state during a borderline super Nino?

I swear, it doesn't snow last year and people are just saying random shit at this point. there is no such thing as a "Nina background state"

Yeah the modeled jet stream configuration in early December is typical for stronger ninos. 

[Damage In Tolland]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It seems like we have a stronger relative SE ridge. Last Winter the N. Pacific ridge was extending into AK and the GOA a lot, and I was thinking "well maybe that's just an extended -PNA" and that a AK/GOA trough wouldn't really hurt us, or it could favor a trough. Now we have a slight +epo and it seems to be killing our pattern completely. I just think it's a case where 65/35 of the globe is warm, and we have a stronger relative SE ridge. The Pacific pattern on models isn't really that strong, especially compared to -nao. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Irony is in that ENSO thread where bluewave was showing how more recent blocks were south (therefore not helping us as much), we need this upcoming block to be a little more south to ideally keep us more in the snow game during the hostile PAC phase. A lot of these runs have it too far north and east for us.

 

But it’s probably in a very good spot once the PAC goes a little less hostile. It also starts migrating SW with time as it retrogrades. 

It’s a good pattern to lay down some nice pack in Canada and down into NNE in the early season. I like seeing that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are we talking about a Nina background state during a borderline super Nino?

I swear, it doesn't snow last year and people are just saying random shit at this point. there is no such thing as a "Nina background state"

He is referring to the residual la Nina atmospheric momentum,  which does exist, but I disagree with him about how it will manifest.....its keeping el Nino in check.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Yeah idk what the whole Nina background state nonsense is about. All guidance has the southern jet strengthening in early December. That doesn’t happen in Ninas, this is a strong El Niño pattern.

It's not nonsense. The application of it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Those who ready my work this month will know what I am saying....its the several year stretch of cool ENSO prevalence working in tandem with a warming climate that has reduced the strength of the Pacific dipole that fosters the development of el Nino and displaced the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the course or development of this event. This is what has lead to the dysfunctional warm ENSO paradigm that is evidenced by the huge spread between ONI and RONI/MEI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Expecting the residual cool ENSO atmospheric momentum to manifest as another very la Nina like pattern with a big se ridge is every bit as reductive as viewing the ONI and the SST distribution earlier this fall and expecting a super, canonical el Nino response this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

PAC trended worse in that first week of Dec than previous runs…it was already a hostile PAC but it went even more hostile. You have a solidly +EPO and a deep western trough with it. This isn’t a massive shock since you have MJO trying to force its way into the bad phases…it never reaches there in high amplitude but even weak bad phase is going to be working against us. The fact anyone in New England still has a shot at some snow during that is all due to the NAO block. 
 

PAC def becomes less hostile though after the 4th/5th or so. 

Fine with me...I was saying I felt like this overtrended and would adjust back some. Makes sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning.

Lets do that this month.

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning.

Lets do that this month.

I think that was 12/10/92 but yes.  Tip’s rendition of the rain/snow line crashing SE observed on campus at UMASS Lowell was a masterpiece.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

I think that was 12/10/92 but yes.  Tip’s rendition of the rain/snow line crashing SE observed on campus at UMASS Lowell was a masterpiece.

It lasted a few days....wasn't a one day affair.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning.

Lets do that this month.

 Nitpick but it was 12/11-12/12, 1992

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 Nitpick but it was 12/11-12/12, 1992

It didn't last more than 1 day?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It didn't last more than 1 day?

It was a 40 hour storm roughly. From maybe dawn hours on Friday 12/11 to late Saturday evening 12/12…some areas may have started slightly earlier or ended a little later but 99% of the impactful parts of the storm were on 12/11 and 12/12. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a 40 hour storm roughly. From maybe dawn hours on Friday 12/11 to late Saturday evening 12/12…some areas may have started slightly earlier or ended a little later but 99% of the impactful parts of the storm were on 12/11 and 12/12. 

Okay, my bad.

Thanks.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, my bad.

Thanks.

You were correct that it lasted more than one day…it just happened to be almost all of 12/11-12/12 so we can mostly leave 12/10 and 12/13 out of it for up here anyway. Further south, it was a bigger deal on 12/10 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a 40 hour storm roughly. From maybe dawn hours on Friday 12/11 to late Saturday evening 12/12…some areas may have started slightly earlier or ended a little later but 99% of the impactful parts of the storm were on 12/11 and 12/12. 

We need more 40-hour storms.

[weathafella]

I remember rain increasing in intensity Friday morning and heavy wain and wind all night with a rapid flip to snow around 7AM Saturday continuing into Saturday night.  I also recall milder wx for a while after that storm passed.  Inauguration Day 1993 for Clinton’s first term was very warm here-60+.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I remember rain increasing in intensity Friday morning and heavy wain and wind all night with a rapid flip to snow around 7AM Saturday continuing into Saturday night.  I also recall milder wx for a while after that storm passed.  Inauguration Day 1993 for Clinton’s first term was very warm here-60+.

I flipped around 1AM in Wilmington 

[Torch Tiger]

looks dire into mid-month for many

[Lava Rock]

looks dire into mid-month for many

How'd those 70s work out for Thanksgiving

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

looks dire into mid-month for many

December 12 is still too early IMO...if there is nothing imminent by Christmas, then that maybe a bit eye opening. 

[weathafella]

The Pacific doesn't look good really until near mid December.   Oh we'll get some cold shots but timing is everything probably until around 12/15.   GEFS appear to have taken a step back tonight not surprisingly.   MJO progs have been less favorable until post 12/5-7 and by the time we get the atmospheric response we're nearing mid month.   Remember folks, this year is about one day later than the earliest possible Thanksgiving.   So it's quite early still and mid December is nearly 3 weeks away.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

The Pacific doesn't look good really until near mid December.   Oh we'll get some cold shots but timing is everything probably until around 12/15.   GEFS appear to have taken a step back tonight not surprisingly.   MJO progs have been less favorable until post 12/5-7 and by the time we get the atmospheric response we're nearing mid month.   Remember folks, this year is about one day later than the earliest possible Thanksgiving.   So it's quite early still and mid December is nearly 3 weeks away.

Shocking. It's warm, cold and repeat. Impossible to sustain any western ridging under this pattern. 

Pacific looks like crap yet again 

[Greg]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning.

Lets do that this month.

I don't think the coastal devestation reached quite 78 magnitude with 3-4 consecutive high tides but it was close. but Boston reported a peak tide of 9.35 ft (2.85 m), which was 1.05 ft (0.32 m) less than the record set in 1978.