December 2023

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Another 15-30" winter like last and you'll be hoping for a 09-10 

[Layman]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:38 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Unless something miraculous pops up next week.. it’s cold and dry well into first week of December. Just pure wx boredom continues 

 

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m expecting a snowy December 

Whether it's weather in general, or just New England, I love how quickly it can all change.  No need to wait a week, a mere 48 hours is all it takes! 

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Bunch of mountain men trying to hang themselves from moose antlers up in The County.

You had to bring up that one again.  Most frustrating winter in my memory, for many reasons, but worse up north - the idea that BWI could have 7" more snow than CAR was mind-blowing.  Also, CAR's temp for Jan-April must be at least one SD beyond that for any other year.  That period in 2010 was 8.7° AN while 2nd mildest (2021) was 5.3° AN. 
 

This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook.

 

The Farmington co-op averaged 104% of average for those 6 winters, but 4 of the 6 were BN with 3 at the edge of ratter territory.  The 173% of 1968-69 (their snowiest of 130) skews the average.

 

[weatherwiz]

I can’t wait until we get Storm after storm…1 storm a week for 6-7 weeks straight. 

[mreaves]

36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

You had to bring up that one again.  Most frustrating winter in my memory, for many reasons, but worse up north - the idea that BWI could have 7" more snow than CAR was mind-blowing

As soon as I saw that map posted I knew @tamarackwould be tossing his laptop into the wood-stove in a rage. I’m with him though. Particularly that storm that pounded NYC while we got some sloppy snow and then rain was infuriating.  

[Torch Tiger]

wow... going to need a SNE panic thread if true. Concerns

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow... going to need a SNE panic thread if true. Concerns

Way too early 

[tamarack]

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

As soon as I saw that map posted I knew @tamarackwould be tossing his laptop into the wood-stove in a rage. I’m with him though. Particularly that storm that pounded NYC while we got some sloppy snow and then rain was infuriating.  

It's a desktop and thus would not fit.  

Sloppiest 10"+ event I ever hope to try getting off the driveway - 4:1 mashed potato globs that landed with splats, mixed with 1.14" of 33-36° RA, this after 3 whiffed KUs.  And we were a mere 5° from repeating what had happened on the exact same dates in 1969.  (Farmington had 43" from that one.)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

36 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow... going to need a SNE panic thread if true. Concerns

We know it’s going to be dung at least through mid month here, that’s climo anyway.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow... going to need a SNE panic thread if true. Concerns

Nah.... Anything this early in Southern New England, especially Connecticut Rhode Island. Southeast Massachusetts is a gift. So no panic button here. I will tell you not to worry about it as you seem really concerned.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Nah.... Anything this early in Southern New England, especially Connecticut Rhode Island. Southeast Massachusetts is a gift. So no panic button here. I will tell you not to worry about it as you seem really concerned.

Even I consider any significant December snowfall as gravy...the larger implication is what it means for the balance of the winter, thereafter. 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I can’t wait until we get Storm after storm…1 storm a week for 6-7 weeks straight. 

So basically the 384 GFS verifies

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

You had to bring up that one again.  Most frustrating winter in my memory, for many reasons, but worse up north - the idea that BWI could have 7" more snow than CAR was mind-blowing.  Also, CAR's temp for Jan-April must be at least one SD beyond that for any other year.  That period in 2010 was 8.7° AN while 2nd mildest (2021) was 5.3° AN. 
 

This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook.

 

The Farmington co-op averaged 104% of average for those 6 winters, but 4 of the 6 were BN with 3 at the edge of ratter territory.  The 173% of 1968-69 (their snowiest of 130) skews the average.

 

After more than 50 years of observing for us, Dennis and his wife have now both passed. As is the story with many of our coops, I'm not sure whether they can be replaced. I certainly wouldn't expect any observations this winter.

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

After more than 50 years of observing for us, Dennis and his wife have now both passed. As is the story with many of our coops, I'm not sure whether they can be replaced. I certainly wouldn't expect any observations this winter.

Four century-plus co-ops winked out in the past 15 years - Bridgton (though 2 separate co-ops for different periods), Lewiston, Gardiner (only Maine co-op I've found with data for 3/1888) and Farmington most recently, in October 2022.

[brooklynwx99]

all major ensembles still look great and are in agreement

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a more NNE look to start December. Any chance down here probably waits until after first week. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a more NNE look to start December. Any chance down here probably waits until after first week. 

It’s got an interior , elevated look to it Dec 1 on if timed right 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s got an interior , elevated look to it Dec 1 on if timed right 

Move 100 miles north and maybe.  When you’re above 850 with SE LLVL winds you aren’t snowing or icing.  But your day will come by late in the week of 12/4.

[weathafella]

Incidentally even well into the first week of December our normal max for most in sne is >40.  Heck, today’s normal high at BOS is 48.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Incidentally even well into the first week of December our normal max for most in sne is >40.  Heck, today’s normal high at BOS is 48.

Yeah, people love to rush things. I think you can safely punt at least the next 2 weeks, probably 3 in most of SNE unless we get a perfect setup. Even very good won’t cut it this early 

[Snowcrazed71]

59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all major ensembles still look great and are in agreement

So compared to last year at this time when we thought that December was going to be a snowy one, although we did get the cold, does this pattern from all three ensembles look better than it did last year at this time? Not sure if anybody has the ensembles from around this time last year?

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even I consider any significant December snowfall as gravy...the larger implication is what it means for the balance of the winter, thereafter. 

100%

Avoiding another torch month and being in the ballpark of normal is a big win IMO. 

I think an advisory snow event or two that gets me on the board by Christmas would be my benchmark for a good Dec, but really a decent wintry progression with the broader pattern and hope on NYD that mid-January will start winter in earnest is what I need to see. 

[brooklynwx99]

i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

100%

Avoiding another torch month and being in the ballpark of normal is a big win IMO. 

I think an advisory snow event or two that gets me on the board by Christmas would be my benchmark for a good Dec, but really a decent wintry progression with the broader pattern and hope on NYD that mid-January will start winter in earnest is what I need to see. 

A winter like 2011-12 would be nice, not a blockbuster but frequent snows and a good pack.

[NorEastermass128]

14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

A winter like 2011-12 would be nice, not a blockbuster but frequent snows and a good pack.

I think you’re misremembering. 11-12 was a dumpster fire. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think you’re misremembering. 11-12 was a dumpster fire. 

Not if you like Morch and 50% of your seasonal snow before Thanksgiving. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

A winter like 2011-12 would be nice, not a blockbuster but frequent snows and a good pack.

You thinking of '13-'14?

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think you’re misremembering. 11-12 was a dumpster fire. 

I usually do misremember, but I remember a winter back around then where we got zonked in January and has a nice pack that lasted all through a cold February. Even though Feb was cold we didn't get much but had a storm that gave us some snow changing to rain and froze so I could walk on top of the deep pack. It was the year I got my pup and I'd have to look up the year I got her. I got her in the summer and it was a great winter, thought she was an omen.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tou thinking of '13-'14?

Might be, snow started on Jan 12 and we had 3-4 good size storms that built up the pack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I usually do misremember, but I remember a winter back around then where we got zonked in January and has a nice pack that lasted all through a cold February. Even though Feb was cold we didn't get much but had a storm that gave us some snow changing to rain and froze so I could walk on top of the deep pack. It was the year I got my pup and I'd have to look up the year I got her. I got her in the summer and it was a great winter, thought she was an omen.

2010-2011...it was a blockbuster.