Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Got a line ripping right over the Metroplex. Not severe thus far, but frequent lightning and loud cracks of thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 hours ago, cheese007 said: Surprised to see a D1 hatched ENH centered on the ArkLaTex this morning. Then I saw it was Broyles and it made more sense. Still worth watching I guess... SPC AC 110558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where convective initiation is expected during the mid evening. Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period. As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet, conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms. Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined with low LCL heights and strong low-level shear should be favorable for supercells embedded in the line, and with the more discrete cells that develop ahead of the line. Some forecast soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km across the northern part of the warm sector. Although the large-hail threat should remain isolated, the steep mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a significant-hail threat. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible a few hours after cells initiation, as the storms mature. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 400 m2/s2 in and just north of the Shreveport vicinity. This is also expected to support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. Any supercell that can persist and become dominant may be able to produce a significant tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also likely develop along the line of storms, with the greatest potential located across Ark-La-Tex, where an Enhanced risk has been introduced. ...East Texas/Louisiana... Further south into east Texas and Louisiana, storm coverage is expected to be more isolated from the late evening into the overnight period. In this area, to the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability is not expected to be as strong. Also, lift may not be quite as concentrated. For this reason, supercell development is expected to remain more isolated. Any cell that can become organized and sustained could produce isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. The severe threat should more isolated with southward extent, with only a marginal severe threat expected near in the coastal sections of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/11/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1111Z (5:11AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Seems Broyles might have gotten this one right. Pretty impressive MULIs (over -10) and Mid-Level Lapse Rates (over 8 C/KM) right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Got a line ripping right over the Metroplex. Not severe thus far, but frequent lightning and loud cracks of thunder. Yeah it picked up real quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Might have to watch that part of the line along I-20 / I-30 headed towards downtown. Looking pretty beefy on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It was amazing watching that line blow up from nothing to near severe in less than 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 There were multiple (so far unofficial) reports of sub-severe hail across Dallas and Collin Counties per Twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 DPs are in the 70s now here on TX coast. More than what models had been depicting during the past days. Severe storm instability and shear parameters (including sufficient mixed-layer CAPE) are looking fairly good for the southern half of TX where SPC has been expanding MRGL risk in D1 & D2 outlooks. Latest globals and especially CAM runs during today have been showing some pretty strong/organized storms (possible MCS) popping up in STX near the Rio Grande (southwest of San Antonio & Laredo) this evening and progressing fairly rapidly east/northeast. 18Z GFS showing some robust development even in western TX also this evening. ----- Already seeing some fairly major thunder going on now over northwestern Mexico (southwest of El Paso which is not too common there) on the southern quadrant of that next incoming shortwave that's got a fairly well-defined circulation on visible satellite over Arizona right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0085.html * A few reports of hail up to 2" diameter in discussion area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Not surprised SPC put out a Slight Risk yesterday now for primarily severe hail over TX Rio Grande plains/western hill country region for Friday - early Saturday period. CAMs want to output some formidable CAPE up to 1K (for the time of year) Friday evening from around Laredo, all the way north/west of San Antonio. But I don't think that'll happen unless the incoming trough tomorrow night does turns out to be more negatively-tilted. Convective tops looking to generally be no more than 30 Kft also which is fairly shallow. Though above 60 F surface DPs will likely be achievable in most of that region ahead of the dryline/cold front (seeing current values right now). Fairly cold mid-level temps and likely steep LRs will probably be in place again. GFS/Euro also showing 700Mb temps right around 0 C and even colder than - 15 C 500Mb temps to San Antonio by around midnight Friday night. Especially if 500Mb heights dropping < 570 further south ahead of the cold front (unusually interesting) indeed happens, and LFQ of incoming, strengthening jet streak potentially providing enhanced lift for more thunder activity further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Cells ahead of the main line around Victoria forecast by 3km NAM. Shear isn't impressive above the LFC, but >8C lapse rates (and a TT over 60 because of that), there could be some decent hailers. Later, around San Antonio, a suggestion of embedded cells in the line which might also mean some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Oh, hey. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 536 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 TXC207-030015- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240203T0015Z/ Haskell TX- 536 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY... At 535 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Rule, moving northeast at 20 mph. At 5:31 PM law enforcement reported a rope tornado about 5 miles east of Sagerton. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Haskell around 540 PM CST. Stamford around 555 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Tornado Warning TXC021-149-030530- /O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.240203T0452Z-240203T0530Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Bastrop County in south central Texas... Northwestern Fayette County in south central Texas... * Until 1130 PM CST. * At 1052 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Cistern, or 11 miles southwest of Smithville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Bastrop and northwestern Fayette Counties, including the following locations... Plum, Togo, Kovar, Elm Grove, Colony, West Point, Winchester, and Kirtley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2988 9686 2974 9725 2990 9735 3010 9704 3003 9702 3006 9697 TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 240DEG 15KT 2986 9723 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ RUNYEN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 We've got three slight risks, starting today (tonight) for Texas. Here is what may be happening at 12z(6:00AM central) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Sam Houston State University and the large Texas correctional complex in the warning, BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 940 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas... Southeastern Walker County in southeastern Texas... * Until 1015 AM CST. * At 940 AM CST, a tornado producing storm was located over Huntsville State Park, or near Huntsville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic storm will be near... Eastern Huntsville and Huntsville State Park around 945 AM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Oakhurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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