Severe Threats: Winter 2023-2024

[Chinook]

double rotation

[Chinook]

significant debris shown south and east of Springfield Tennessee

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yikes...

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Chinook]

I think we have big debris at Hendersonville

[Chinook]

tornado video from Hendersonville

[Chinook]

tornado hit something that exploded with fire. It's most likely the start of the Hendersonville-Gallatin tornado, before Hendersonville near I-65 in the Nashville metro area.

[Chinook]

STP  around the start of the event

[CheeselandSkies]

17 hours ago, Chinook said:

STP  around the start of the event

That'll do it.

[Chinook]

There have been several surveyed EF-1 to EF-3 tornadoes. I believe some news sources say 6 fatalities in Tennessee. The SPC web site says 62 injured at Woodlawn Tennessee. A lot more preliminary tornado reports on the SPC list are not showing any type of EF indicator

 

[mayjawintastawm]

It seems like the period between 11/20 and 12/15 has become particularly scary for TN and NC the last 20-30 years in terms of nighttime strong tornadoes. Do we have data to back that up? I remember driving from RDU to western NC for school a little before the turn of the millennium late at night right after Thanksgiving, and encountering some really scary weather. The pattern seems to have continued.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

It seems like the period between 11/20 and 12/15 has become particularly scary for TN and NC the last 20-30 years in terms of nighttime strong tornadoes. Do we have data to back that up? I remember driving from RDU to western NC for school a little before the turn of the millennium late at night right after Thanksgiving, and encountering some really scary weather. The pattern seems to have continued.

Yes.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

[mayjawintastawm]

18 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Yes.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

Thanks. That describes the spatial changes but not as much the late Fall trend. Maybe not enough tornadoes to show up as a signal with STP or numbers of reports of strong tornadoes, but it sure seems different.

[It's Always Sunny]

Saturday evening into Sunday morning (Christmas Eve) looking dicey for some severe potential across central-eastern TX/OK. My mind immediately goes to December 26, 2015. Super scary and sad day across the DFW Metroplex. 

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks like things (EN and apparently MJO also really going into play now) are going to get very interesting convective-wise for most of Gulf Coast region late this week and/or early next week. SPC already discussing the next two (robust forecasted) mid-upper lows/troughs of interest in their Day 4 - 8 outlook New Years Monday.

Globals also were showing Cold mid-level temps (500Mb near -30 C & 700Mb near -10 C) widely around the lows with widespread ample DL shear (50 - 60 kts generally but some areas near 100 kts) ahead of the second Low, with Monday's (8th) generally tracking further south through TX than the first one this Friday (5th).

Will definitely be interesting to see how things evolve with these next 2 highlighted incoming Lows this week.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Hatched tornado Monday I-10 corridor from BTR to KECP.  The worst looks to be Mississippi and Alabama after midnight. South Alabama sounding below

 

[Chinook]

tornado threat for a good amount of the Gulf Coast

 

[andyhb]

00z high res guidance is not painting a pretty picture for the central Gulf Coast tomorrow night. Incredible shear with 70-80 kt LL flow and the potential for embedded supercells. It’s going to be hard to keep that warm sector offshore with gale/storm force southerlies trying to advect moisture north.

[Stx_Thunder]

2 in. diameter hail reported a short while ago near coast in/around Lake Charles, LA @ NWS office:

[Sydney Claridge]

Tornado confirmed near Coldspring, TX, per tornado warning text and KHOU livestream.

EDIT: spotter-confirmed.

[Stx_Thunder]

Spotter confirmed about 2.50 in. diameter hail not too far east of San Antonio, near Belmont, TX:

-----------

Also, Hurricane force Non-thunderstorm wind gust reported around Brownsville in Deep South TX at the airport:

[Chinook]

wow, the STP value is huge in SE Texas, with a couple of tornado warnings and a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings. Things are starting to get going.

[southmdwatcher]

MLCAPE values of 2k to 3200 in SE Texas onshore and lurking just offshore from Louisiana is a large area of MLCAPE of around 2000 j/kg.

[Chinook]

tornado warning W of New Orleans. For right now TMSY short-range radar has it but KLIX doesn't!

[Chinook]

There are always way more reports on the SPC database a couple of days after things happen. There was a significant amount of severe thunderstorm winds and also non-thunderstorm 50mph+ winds in the last two days. Tornadoes were in fact somewhat numerous, but perhaps short lived, and I have no idea if a bunch of these were EF0 or worse.

 

[cheese007]

Surprised to see a D1 hatched ENH centered on the ArkLaTex this morning. Then I saw it was Broyles and it made more sense.  Still worth watching I guess...

SPC AC 110558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE ARK-LA-TEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and
   isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the
   Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also
   expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and
   Louisiana.

   ...Ark-La-Tex...
   An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward
   through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains
   this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot
   mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose
   of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture
   will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose
   of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In
   response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across
   southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where
   convective initiation is expected during the mid evening.
   Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the
   late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to
   severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest
   Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period.
   As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet,
   conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms.

   Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface
   dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state
   line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the
   northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift
   associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined with
   low LCL heights and strong low-level shear should be favorable for
   supercells embedded in the line, and with the more discrete cells
   that develop ahead of the line. Some forecast soundings suggest that
   700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km across the northern part
   of the warm sector. Although the large-hail threat should remain
   isolated, the steep mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a
   significant-hail threat. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
   diameter will be possible a few hours after cells initiation, as the
   storms mature. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
   forecast to peak near 400 m2/s2 in and just north of the Shreveport
   vicinity. This is also expected to support a tornado threat with the
   more intense supercells. Any supercell that can persist and become
   dominant may be able to produce a significant tornado or two. A
   wind-damage threat will also likely develop along the line of
   storms, with the greatest potential located across Ark-La-Tex, where
   an Enhanced risk has been introduced.

   ...East Texas/Louisiana...
   Further south into east Texas and Louisiana, storm coverage is
   expected to be more isolated from the late evening into the
   overnight period. In this area, to the south of the mid-level jet
   axis, instability is not expected to be as strong. Also, lift may
   not be quite as concentrated. For this reason, supercell development
   is expected to remain more isolated. Any cell that can become
   organized and sustained could produce isolated large hail, wind
   damage and a tornado or two. The severe threat should more isolated
   with southward extent, with only a marginal severe threat expected
   near in the coastal sections of southeast Texas and southern
   Louisiana.

   ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/11/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1111Z (5:11AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Stx_Thunder]

On 1/10/2024 at 6:30 PM, Chinook said:

There are always way more reports on the SPC database a couple of days after things happen. There was a significant amount of severe thunderstorm winds and also non-thunderstorm 50mph+ winds in the last two days. Tornadoes were in fact somewhat numerous, but perhaps short lived, and I have no idea if a bunch of these were EF0 or worse.

There were Lots of significant, non-convective wind reports from TX panhandle all the way east to around Georgia on Monday, watching it on iWeathernet. A lot of those were also AON severe limits.

Also, can't forget the 74 MPH non-convective hurricane force gust in Brownsville, TX, that I noted in my previous post, as that is not a common thing down there to note as well.

But also, looking at the updated LSRs for Monday, there was apparently some baseball hailstones in the mix as well further east of San Antonio (closer to the coast) early Monday afternoon, with the cold front.

-----
I looked at basic historical wx event data for January on Austin/San Antonio NWS page, and the only thing I found that came to that maximum of large hail (3 in. diameter) in that timeframe between Jan 1 - 15, was back in 2017. But, that was west of San Antonio (where it's much more common from supercells).

There was also softball hail events back in 2002 of December 23rd. But, even that was also further north/west away from this past Monday's large hail event further south right around the I-10 corridor between San Antonio - Houston.

I'd also wonder about the 2.00 in. diameter reported hail near coast in Lake Charles, LA on Monday too. But I haven't looked up historical data there.

All of this is already making me wonder a very good amount now about this upcoming severe season. It's possible that even February may also turn out to be quite interesting this year (the way things have been going lately the past few weeks also).

[Chinook]

Day-2 convective outlook changed significantly to reduce the enhanced risk area

Quote

...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts, some
   potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible across
   parts of the Southeast and into the Carolinas Friday through Friday
   evening. Highest chance of severe wind gusts is over northern and
   central Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Friday morning.

 

[Chinook]

is this as bad as it's going to get?

[Chinook]

rare tornado watch away from the Gulf of Mexico at night in January

[Chinook]

this is actually pretty amazing