I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.   Key Factors I included in my forecast Analogs I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having