Winter 2023-24 Forecast

[stormy]

Congratulations on being gloriously positive!

I assume IAD at 43 is a max..  I am usually similar to Dulles.  That's  right in line with my max. of 40 for Augusta.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Congratulations on being gloriously positive!

I assume IAD at 43 is a max..  I am usually similar to Dulles.  That's  right in line with my max. of 40 for Augusta.

Watch this, and remember what I have been sayin all year. We need to keep the faith! You guys are overdue, and THIS IS THE WINTER! Even Cosgrove has repeatedly emphasized this winter fits the 2009-2010 analog.

 

 

Also, this Billy Joel track says it all! I used to blast this puppy on my headphones while I jebwalked all the way from Dale Blvd to Woodbridge via Minnieville Rd as it was in those days, circa 1987, 2 lanes, in a driving snowstorm!

 

[stormy]

13 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Watch this, and remember what I have been sayin all year. We need to keep the faith! You guys are overdue, and THIS IS THE WINTER! Even Cosgrove has repeatedly emphasized this winter fits the 2009-2010 analog.

 

 

Also, this Billy Joel track says it all! I used to blast this puppy on my headphones while I jebwalked all the way from Dale Blvd to Woodbridge via Minnieville Rd as it was in those days, circa 1987, 2 lanes, in a driving snowstorm!

 

Wow!!!  That was an hilarious blast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Miss Pixee]

Saw this posted on twitter though I'm not familiar with this gentleman. Relevant to the current pattern or just gas?

 

[GramaxRefugee]

8 hours ago, Pixee said:

Saw this posted on twitter though I'm not familiar with this gentleman. Relevant to the current pattern or just gas?

 

I think that chart is wrong for 1987, when we only had 31".

Eta : I get closer to 24 than 26, so the basic idea is true. Interesting.

[psuhoffman]

On 11/17/2023 at 2:25 PM, Pixee said:

Saw this posted on twitter though I'm not familiar with this gentleman. Relevant to the current pattern or just gas?

 

 

On 11/17/2023 at 10:38 PM, GramaxRefugee said:

I think that chart is wrong for 1987, when we only had 31".

Eta : I get closer to 24 than 26, so the basic idea is true. Interesting.

Not sure what happened with his numbers for 1987 but the gist of that chart is accurate and this did factor into my seasonal expectations.  Note almost all of those years made it into my analogs, either as a primary or a historical season I mentioned for reference.  Furthermore, there is a pretty good explanation for the duds.  1998 went full super nino, the north pac low went ape, displaced further east and directed the pac firehose right into the CONUS and obliterated any and all cold from all of N American.  I highly doubt that happens here given the much weaker enso forcing we are seeing.  

 

1977 and 1969 I would take my chances on a repeat again and again.  Both featured a solid 6 week period with a damn near perfect h5 pattern.  In the case of 1977 it was just frigid arctic cold but dry.  In the case of 1969 several coastal storms failed to reach potential for our area.  There were some secondary jumps, close misses...just back luck.   Is it possible things could go down that way again, sure, but given a repeat of the same general patterns I would expect better results most likely.  This was just one more supporting piece of evidence why I went big on my winter forecast.  

[87storms]

On 11/20/2023 at 9:33 AM, psuhoffman said:

 

Not sure what happened with his numbers for 1987 but the gist of that chart is accurate and this did factor into my seasonal expectations.  Note almost all of those years made it into my analogs, either as a primary or a historical season I mentioned for reference.  Furthermore, there is a pretty good explanation for the duds.  1998 went full super nino, the north pac low went ape, displaced further east and directed the pac firehose right into the CONUS and obliterated any and all cold from all of N American.  I highly doubt that happens here given the much weaker enso forcing we are seeing.  

 

1977 and 1969 I would take my chances on a repeat again and again.  Both featured a solid 6 week period with a damn near perfect h5 pattern.  In the case of 1977 it was just frigid arctic cold but dry.  In the case of 1969 several coastal storms failed to reach potential for our area.  There were some secondary jumps, close misses...just back luck.   Is it possible things could go down that way again, sure, but given a repeat of the same general patterns I would expect better results most likely.  This was just one more supporting piece of evidence why I went big on my winter forecast.  

I think the big question for the cities is whether we're heading towards being the new Richmond or if CC hasn't impacted the region enough to make a notable difference.  I could picture a middle ground where some of the storms in our STJ boom years become mixers, which ultimately will keep snowfall accumulations down.  We'll still get clean snowstorms from start to finish, but it's hard to believe given the change in SSTs/UHI/whatever/etc. that there won't be any impacts to the snowfall totals.  With that said, if CC does increase the amount of precip we get, then any one well-timed storm could cancel out a couple of the minor events that produce pingers and tree glazers instead of hiding grass blades.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I think the big question for the cities is whether we're heading towards being the new Richmond or if CC hasn't impacted the region enough to make a notable difference.  I could picture a middle ground where some of the storms in our STJ boom years become mixers, which ultimately will keep snowfall accumulations down.  We'll still get clean snowstorms from start to finish, but it's hard to believe given the change in SSTs/UHI/whatever/etc. that there won't be any impacts to the snowfall totals.  With that said, if CC does increase the amount of precip we get, then any one well-timed storm could cancel out a couple of the minor events that produce pingers and tree glazers instead of hiding grass blades.

Or they could juice snowfall totals if just cold enough. 

[87storms]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Or they could juice snowfall totals if just cold enough. 

True, but we haven't really been good at scoring minor events the last few years.  This year could be a pretty good litmus test to see what we're really working with as far as whether we get clippers, how far south the storms track, how soon the changeover occurs, etc.  Last year was too much of a dud to really take seriously.

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

True, but we haven't really been good at scoring minor events the last few years.  This year could be a pretty good litmus test to see what we're really working with as far as whether we get clippers, how far south the storms track, how soon the changeover occurs, etc.  Last year was too much of a dud to really take seriously.

Yeah we’re losing the marginal events no question about that. 

[stormy]

58 minutes ago, 87storms said:

True, but we haven't really been good at scoring minor events the last few years.  This year could be a pretty good litmus test to see what we're really working with as far as whether we get clippers, how far south the storms track, how soon the changeover occurs, etc.  Last year was too much of a dud to really take seriously.

Sounds like 1957................................. Wow, that was 66 years ago!

[87storms]

Yeah we’re losing the marginal events no question about that. 

Yea, and the whole argument is so silly, too. Even if the warmer temps are temporary, it’s still going to have an impact on marginal snow towns like ours (on average). It ain’t rocket science lol. I’m just hoping we can get the typical 2-3 significant snowstorms.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah we’re losing the marginal events no question about that. 

IMO, marginal events are a thing of the past south of 40N.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, marginal events are a thing of the past south of 40N.

I'm wondering if the apparent extinction of the Alberta Clipper is a microcosm of this.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm wondering if the apparent extinction of the Alberta Clipper is a microcosm of this.

Hard to get clippers when the Pacific overwhelms everything.

[Roger Smith]

I am relatively optimistic for your chances too. All signs point to a strong ridge near the west coast and frequent outbreaks of very cold air from north-central Canada. Offshore water temperatures are high and seem likely to stay warm as Labrador current is unusually weak. This does play into the all or nothing paradigm in case this Atlantic warmth forces a high amplitude upper pattern and ideal snow production runs further inland, but I get the feeling the cold air will be battling with the warm ocean in the region between DC and the gulf stream; this sets up the question of whether storms will tuck near coast or progress faster east; in the faster option a series of 2-5 inch falls could be expected, which is still an improvement over most of the winters recently. I would say a good chance of at least one larger snowfall event and that to occur in February. I have entered predictions for snowfall in contest and I believe they are a bit lower than yours but only by a few inches. So I hope your optimism is rewarded. I believe it could also be colder than 1991-2020 average by 1-3 F deg with Dec and Feb favored over Jan where there could be a reversal for a while. 

Another factor worth keeping in mind is lunar declination is at its absolute max range of 29 deg (an 18.6-year cycle) that research associates with powerful storm development, blocking, and unusual upper air patterns. Since a normal upper air pattern is a killer for marginal regions to see snow, I like this variation. Year to year variability can also be high at this point in the lunar declination cycle; so the fact that last winter was so warm and snow free could be part one of a flip-flop that is typical of high dec winters, and it applies to seasons as well as year to year. This is why I think one out of three months could be a lot warmer, let's say mid-January could be milder without taking away snow potential from other intervals. 

Two best chances for a big snowfall event appear to be around 27-29 Dec and 5-10 Feb. 

[WEATHER53]

We do get these winters snd it’s a good call.  
Can name a lot of big snow winters including the last 15 years and especially last 50.