Winter 2023-24 Forecast

[psuhoffman]

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

[NorthArlington101]

Jeez, I assumed this was going the opposite way. Glad to have you onboard!

[LeesburgWx]

32” in DC & 43” at IAD 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

32” in DC & 43” at IAD 

I took the average of my analogs and adjusted down slightly to account for warming.  The numbers are what they are.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Jeez, I assumed this was going the opposite way. Glad to have you onboard!

Everyone assumes I am pessimistic and usually go low.  But the truth is I simply post a lot of snowfall data, and because our snowfall data has been so awful lately it makes me look like I hate on snow...but its just the numbers.  And...I've been wrong 4 times in the last 13 years with my seasonal guess, and 3/4 if was because I predicted too much snow.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Bro 32" seasonal total at DCA? I'm going with 9" in the CWG contest. Holy ****

[NorthArlington101]

Everyone assumes I am pessimistic and usually go low.  But the truth is I simply post a lot of snowfall data, and because our snowfall data has been so awful lately it makes me look like I hate on snow...but its just the numbers.  And...I've been wrong 4 times in the last 13 years with my seasonal guess, and 3/4 if was because I predicted too much snow.  

Pessimism is a no-brainer with the warmer winters of late… but hope you are right and we go big instead of going home this time. Thanks for the time and effort you put into this (and every post here).

[WxUSAF]

Wooo baby

[Chris78]

Go big or go home.

I like it.

[clskinsfan]

[Maestrobjwa]

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I took the average of my analogs and adjusted down slightly to account for warming.  The numbers are what they are.  

With one of the analogs being the highest in the POR, (2010) I would be tempted to remove the highest and lowest before averaging. (Unfortunately, that would leave only 2 years) Just a thought.

 

ETA: I did the average by this method and it came out 21.8" vs 35.0". Hmmm

[Terpeast]

I hope you're right @psuhoffman! 

You're a bit more bullish than I am, tbh. I hedged a bit downward because I think we'll see some SW troughing episodes (pac base state) that'll "steal" a couple of our chances. Also, one thing I did differently was to include 57-58 and 65-66 (as well as 76-77) but by warming them up a few degrees and thus reducing their snowfall totals, and that dragged down my overall snowfall prediction for the area.

But I understand your trepidation and I have the same thing, especially after the recent MEI value came in way low. 

Agreed that it's good we're not going super nino, though.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

Very nice write up bro!!!!!

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

Good work man ! 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

With one of the analogs being the highest in the POR, (2010) I would be tempted to remove the highest and lowest before averaging. (Unfortunately, that would leave only 2 years) Just a thought.

 

ETA: I did the average by this method and it came out 21.8" vs 35.0". Hmmm

Except you would be excluding the best analog from a set of 4.  Also if you remove 2010 and 2005 the avg at DCA is 35” so it fails to really alter the equation. Lastly…is 2010 really the outlier or is 2005?  1987,2003,2010 all have more in common than 2005. And imo 2005 underperformed. Almost every threat that winter failed to meet its potential.  
 

This is all preference. Nothing wrong with your method just defending why I didn’t go that route. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I hope you're right @psuhoffman! 

You're a bit more bullish than I am, tbh. I hedged a bit downward because I think we'll see some SW troughing episodes (pac base state) that'll "steal" a couple of our chances. Also, one thing I did differently was to include 57-58 and 65-66 (as well as 76-77) but by warming them up a few degrees and thus reducing their snowfall totals, and that dragged down my overall snowfall prediction for the area.

But I understand your trepidation and I have the same thing, especially after the recent MEI value came in way low. 

Agreed that it's good we're not going super nino, though.

I definitely am worried about the pac base state. And you may be right about a muted in between result. But I guess I went all or nothing. What my data indicated is either the Nino is able to initiate the longwave pattern we need and it’s a blockbuster year or it fails to and it’s a lame below avg year.  But the better analogs skewed in favor of a blockbuster. 
 

There are exceptions like 2019 but it really did fail to initiate a favorable pattern and DC just got incredibly lucky that one fairly odd weak storm in a mediocre pattern maxed out for them. If we replay that winter 10 times I bet it ends up below avg snow 7/10 times. 

I did adjust the averages down about 10% to account for warming. The reason I didn’t go further was if you stratify the seasonal data by enso state, nino is the one category where we’ve seen no statistical regression in our snowfall. So far a true Nino pattern has been the one thing impervious to warming’s negative impact on snowfall. I suspect so far the increase in available moisture and baroclinic instability are offsetting the warming given a perfect storm track and the Nino longwave pattern muting the Pacs ability to flood in a puke airmass.  That’s probably living on borrowed time but Im gambling we haven’t reached the cliff yet.  

[wxmvpete]

It's a bold forecast, but given the highly unusual atmospheric and oceanic factors at play, you'd think highly unusual events should transpire. That's why I totally get the "all or nothing" type seasonal forecasts I've been seeing.

Also, I moved closer to Manchester late last winter and already saw how much that elevation matters. I live right at 1,000ft. Hoping to reap some of the rewards of that added elevation for my first full winter in northeast Carroll County. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

It's a bold forecast, but given the highly unusual atmospheric and oceanic factors at play, you'd think highly unusual events should transpire. That's why I totally get the "all or nothing" type seasonal forecasts I've been seeing.

Also, I moved closer to Manchester late last winter and already saw how much that elevation matters. I live right at 1,000ft. Hoping to reap some of the rewards of that added elevation for my first full winter in northeast Carroll County. 

It makes a huge difference in marginal events. What general area are you?  I’m just northwest of town on top of Dug Hill Ridge. 

[wxmvpete]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It makes a huge difference in marginal events. What general area are you?  I’m just northwest of town on top of Dug Hill Ridge. 

I am just west of Snydersburg and about a mile east of MD-27. I refer to it as living in the middle of the triangle that Manchester, Westminster, and Hampstead create. I noticed those marginal events a couple times late last winter already. Interested to see how I fare this winter compared to my immediate family (they are near Manassas and Chantilly, VA). 

[Twilly05]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I definitely am worried about the pac base state. And you may be right about a muted in between result. But I guess I went all or nothing. What my data indicated is either the Nino is able to initiate the longwave pattern we need and it’s a blockbuster year or it fails to and it’s a lame below avg year.  But the better analogs skewed in favor of a blockbuster. 
 

There are exceptions like 2019 but it really did fail to initiate a favorable pattern and DC just got incredibly lucky that one fairly odd weak storm in a mediocre pattern maxed out for them. If we replay that winter 10 times I bet it ends up below avg snow 7/10 times. 

I did adjust the averages down about 10% to account for warming. The reason I didn’t go further was if you stratify the seasonal data by enso state, nino is the one category where we’ve seen no statistical regression in our snowfall. So far a true Nino pattern has been the one thing impervious to warming’s negative impact on snowfall. I suspect so far the increase in available moisture and baroclinic instability are offsetting the warming given a perfect storm track and the Nino longwave pattern muting the Pacs ability to flood in a puke airmass.  That’s probably living on borrowed time but Im gambling we haven’t reached the cliff yet.  

Thanks for putting in the work. Well reasoned. Hope you are right. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

Key Factors I included in my forecast

Analogs

I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

ENSO

IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

QBO

We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

Honorable mentions....

2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

Solar

We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

Intangibles

Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

1) Current Pacific Cycle

2) The warmer climate overall

3) Hunga Tonga

All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

The Forecast 

After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 

DCA: 32"

BWI: 42"

IAD: 43"

Manchester MD: 56"

I'm surprised you didn't get a weenie from the usual suspect over that outlook. 

[Ji]

the good thing is maybe you will have a snow bias this winter to nudge your forecast to verify. Thanks man for the detailed forecast. Dougs #1 was 65-66 but he couldnt find a SST map lol. He said 09-10 was his #1 but something(Cant remember) happened this fall and it fell. Maybe it was the drought

[stormtracker]

I just warned psu for posting porn.

[Scraff]

It’s getting late on a Tuesday night. Just catching up here like on DVR. Caps win (watched on DVR) Wine wins (starting drinking it before the Caps game on DVR). And PSU wins! Well we hope anyway. My DVR doesn’t go out  to March 2024.  Let’s go winter!!! 
 

ETA: Help—Does anyone know how to program a BetaMax? 

[WEATHER53]

Decent winters, and better, analogs have shown up and you have them also.!!
 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

the good thing is maybe you will have a snow bias this winter to nudge your forecast to verify. Thanks man for the detailed forecast. Dougs #1 was 65-66 but he couldnt find a SST map lol. He said 09-10 was his #1 but something(Cant remember) happened this fall and it fell. Maybe it was the drought

65-66 would have been very high on my list had I included older data. As it was I felt I had enough to get the gist without needing to go way back. Including 1958 and 1966 wouldn’t have changed the forecast significantly. 

[osfan24]

Nice! I was fearful when I opened this thread.

One question I have for you is how you think we get to those totals? Is it one big storm and then a few smaller ones like, say, 1995-1996 and 2002-2003, or is it more like 2013-2014 when it was just a parade of small to medium storms with basically wall-to-wall winter, very cold temps, and snow on the ground the entire time, or is it 2015-2016 where we get one massive storm and it is otherwise a shutout? Given the expected pattern, I'm going to guess you think we get hit with a big one and then some smaller storms.

[Ji]

2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Nice! I was fearful when I opened this thread.

One question I have for you is how you think we get to those totals? Is it one big storm and then a few smaller ones like, say, 1995-1996 and 2002-2003, or is it more like 2013-2014 when it was just a parade of small to medium storms with basically wall-to-wall winter, very cold temps, and snow on the ground the entire time, or is it 2015-2016 where we get one massive storm and it is otherwise a shutout? Given the expected pattern, I'm going to guess you think we get hit with a big one and then some smaller storms.

Most El Ninos that have produced have been because of the big one. We havent had that many recently but obviously those years you mentioned all had the big one. 65-66 had a big one. 57-58....i think its why we like Ninos so much. The HECS potential

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Nice! I was fearful when I opened this thread.

One question I have for you is how you think we get to those totals? Is it one big storm and then a few smaller ones like, say, 1995-1996 and 2002-2003, or is it more like 2013-2014 when it was just a parade of small to medium storms with basically wall-to-wall winter, very cold temps, and snow on the ground the entire time, or is it 2015-2016 where we get one massive storm and it is otherwise a shutout? Given the expected pattern, I'm going to guess you think we get hit with a big one and then some smaller storms.

I do think the odds of a big hit are increased this year...but it's unlikely to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2016.  This is not behaving like a super nino.  I am hesitant to drill down too much into details though, snow can be a bit fluky to begin with... but my expectation is several snow events with 1 or 2 being significant.  We can get to my numbers either though getting lucky with a couple extra moderate hits...or one of the hits being a HECS level event.  Either is acceptable.  I could also bust high if we get unlucky and none reach max potential and we have a few close misses.