40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 Poorly Forecast Sunday-Monday Storm Here are the final snowfall amounts from the storm that began on Sunday and ended early this morning. Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call: The forecast across the elevated far interior was fairly accurate, however, the snowfall was significantly over forecast across the densely coastal plane of the eastern and souther portions of the region. More specifically, 1-3" fell where 2-5" was forecast along the immediate coast of eastern Mass. And 4-7" was forecast instead of the 2-5" that fell across interior Eastern Mass, throughout the route 128 and 495 belts. The gradient was also sharper than forecast across southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, the cape islands., where little to no snowfall accumulated rather than the 1-3" forecast. The primary reason for the forecasting failure is that the precipitation never grew heavy enough to overcome very marginal temperatures. This was an issue that was flagged on much of guidance prior to the event, as evidenced by fairly weak lift that was not colocated within the favored snow growth region in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is between approximately 12 and -18C. As it turned out this bette lift did in fact materialize, but it further north across central New Hampshire, where several inches did fall last night. Final Grade: D 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Poorly Forecast Sunday-Monday Storm Here are the final snowfall amounts from the storm that began on Sunday and ended early this morning. Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call: The forecast across the elevated far interior was fairly accurate, however, the snowfall was significantly over forecast across the densely coastal plane of the eastern and souther portions of the region. More specifically, 1-3" fell where 2-5" was forecast along the immediate coast of eastern Mass. And 4-7" was forecast instead of the 2-5" that fell across interior Eastern Mass, throughout the route 128 and 495 belts. The gradient was also sharper than forecast across southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, the cape islands., where little to no snowfall accumulated rather than the 1-3" forecast. The primary reason for the forecasting failure is that the precipitation never grew heavy enough to overcome very marginal temperatures. This was an issue that was flagged on much of guidance prior to the event, as evidenced by fairly weak lift that was not colocated within the favored snow growth region in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is between approximately 12 and -18C. As it turned out this bette lift did in fact materialize, but it further north across central New Hampshire, where several inches did fall last night. Final Grade: D Outside of the elevations above 600' or so, those W MA totals are too high on the NWS BOX map. I drove all over the valley today and the I-91/CTRV corridor barely had more than an inch otg between Brattleboro and Springfield. Not at all giving you shit for busting because I liked your maps and I like your forecasts in general. I'm just saying that the NWS forecasts and the totals they are posting, for this storm, are a bit overdone for the lower elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Author Share Posted February 1 January 2024 Forecast Review & February Preview January Forecast a Modest Success Here is a review of the January forecast Narrative from November 11th: January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". Lets begin with a review of the behavior of the major teleconnections and an analysis of the forecast. The NAO was volatile and essentially neural for the month. The behavior of the AO can be characterized as very similar with volatile behavior that averaged essentially neutral in the aggregate. The polar domain evolved largely as forecast. Finally, the PNA, while averaging slightly positive during the month of February, belies the true nature of the pattern. First of all, the one negative interlude diring month coicided with the arctic outbreak, thus ensuring that it loaded west. Additionally, the +PNA periods were largely biased to the west. This synoptic nuance was much like January 2023 in the sense that having the lower heights concentrated just off of the west coast actually reenforced deeper negative anomalies along the west in what was more representative to a RNA (-PNA) pattern. This is evident in the monthly composite below. Note the ridge positioned off of the west coast, with the deep negative anomalies over the western CONUS as a response. This is in comparison to the forecast H5 composite for the month January, which had slightly lower over the east than reality due to the Pacific ridge, presumably as a result of residual cool ENSO GLAAM and a very warm western Pacific. The result was that the month was slightly milder than forecast across the forecast region. Temperatures were expected to finish the month anywhere from near normal to about +2F over New England and near normal to as much as 2F below average over the mid Atlantic. However, New England finished more like +1 to +3F and the mid Atlantic near normal to +1F. This modest positive departure from forecast temp anomalies is in large part because of the mid month arctic outbreak loading west as a direct result of the aforementioned low Western CONUS heights. While this was a theme in the analog package, it was more pronounced than forecast. The forecast precipitation composite was heavily flawed, as January 2024 has been one of the wetter months of January on record along much of the east coast. But it was stipulated in the forecast that this was likely to be the case. "It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". And it indeed was an issue. This is likely due to an active sub tropical jet working in concert with a a great deal of mass flux, as evidenced by the volatility of the major teleconnections. Overall the narrative for the month of January was largely accurate. The snowfall distribution for the month was indeed heavily weighted towards the interior, as forecast, in large part due to the major storm that occurred January 6-7th. Additionally, there was in fact a major volar vortex disruption as forecast (SSW), however, it occured 9 days outside of the specified 12/25-1/8 window, on January 17 per Judah Cohen. Although the first of two identified seasonal windows for a major east coast snow storm looks to pass unceremoniously (1/22-2/5), the period did not want for opportunity. The first threat, which technically occurred just prior to the onset of the period around January 20, was simply not afforded enough wave space for the follow up polar vortex lobe to amplify. However, the potential did not go unnoticed by CIPS, which flagged matches to the days leading up to the Great Blizzard of 1978 (a January & February analog) and the Blizzard of January 1996 (residual cool ENSO GLAAM) as viable synoptic analogs. And the second round of potential within this window is set to occur on around February 5th. February 2024 Preview The previously referenced 1/22 to 2/5 storm window is likely to conclude with tremendous additional unrealized potential, as the combination of a southward displaced OMEGA block and a Pacific short wave acting as a kicker will ensure that a powerful southern stream shortwave can not amplify on the east coast to any degree. Thus the month of February is destined to begin just as January ended, with a large degree of unrealized potential. But the question of whether or not that will remain common theme during the month is much more nebulous. Quiet Start to February 2024 May be Misleading February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The world of weather can often be quite deceiving, as evidenced on a monthly level by near record levels of precipitation in the absence of extreme warmth resulting in so little snowfall along the east coast to date. There can also be deception on a seasonal level, as Mother Nature can often be quite coy about what may stand between the general public and the highly coveted a reunion with spring. And there continue to be numerous signs, as there have in past El Niño seasons, that there answer just maybe plenty. This was strongly implied last fall: The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic. Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: The general thesis for this month continues to be well supported. Although perhaps the forecast departures of -2 to -4F over the mid Atlantic and near normal to +2 over New England will ultimately prove too cool yet again. Time will tell- But what does remain clear is that the apparent quiet first half of the month seems reflected not only in the forecast analog package: But also by latest guidance. The frustration will then mount for fans of winter, as a reinvigoration of the Pacific jet leads to another warm up next week, despite the eventual return of high latitude blocking. This is illustrated via the ensemble mean as simply a stochastic reaction to the breakdown of the current OMEGA block. The ridge weakens as is translates eastward and over the forecast area, as more energy simultaneously crashes heights to the west as part of a Rosby wave train reaction. This warm up will be ephemeral in nature, as the MJO is forecast by both the GFS and European suites to decrease in amplitude as it enters phase 8 by mid month. This is congruent with tropical forcing moving into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean and weakening before potentially reemerging in the Maritime continent to induce a warm up either very late in the month of February or early in March. This coincides with the reconfiguration of the Pacific in a potent Aleutian low regime with a powerful western CONUS ridge. 00z EPS: 00z GEFS: 00z GEPS: The reinvigoration of high latitude blocking/weakening polar vortex will this time potentially be team with the reconfigured Pacific to culminate in a period of cross polar flow and a great deal of storminess. In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Final Call High Impact-Short Duration Winter Storm on Tuesday Expect High Volume of Cancellations There have been major changes to the forecast since First Call issued on Thursday, which is not unexpected given that long of a lead time. It now appears as though this storm system will have a severe, and multifaceted impact on the region during an interval of time focused on mid day Tuesday. Brief blizzard conditions and near white out possible in the most prolific banding, Synoptic Overview: Previously it had appeared as though the storm system slated for Tuesday would be primarily an issue for the hills of Worcester county and the Berkshires, since the northern stream energy that would supply the cold air and reinvigorate the storm system looked to feed in too late, after the system had passed. However, while the bulk of the northern energy still looks to phase in after the system has moved towards the Canadian Maritimes, it now looks as though the approaching northern stream disturbance will force the approaching southern stream system just far enough to the south to still produce a major snowfall across the area despite a marginally cold airmass. The approach of the northern stream energy will induce redevelopment of the southern stream disturbance along the east coast just as the very warm airmass from this weekend is replaced with more seasonable air. While it will ultimately be cold enough for snowfall even to the coast after perhaps an initial period of rain, the marginal airmass will act to limit accumulations to a degree. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Precipitation should move into all of southern New England by the AM commute on Tuesday, perhaps as a mix or even rain along the south coast, southeastern Mass and cape cod and islands. The precipitation will quickly become heavy as any mixed precipitation or rain transitions to snow with the height of the storm being around midday. The heaviest banding should focus underneath the strongest lift, just to the north of the track of the 700mb low pressure area. With locally up to 18" possible over the higher terrain of this zone, over the south-central Worcester hills, as well as the hills of northeastern and northwestern Connecticut. In addition to the heavy snowfall and near blizzard conditions possible at times, the 1:45pm high tide cycle will be accompanied by coastal flooding on east-facing beaches, as gale forced winds batter the coastline. Then the snow and wind should taper off during the evening commute on Tuesday, which should be essentially non-existent, anyway. FINAL CALL: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Thoughts on "The Great Forecasting Debacle of 2024" Why The Forecast Failed The good news is that yesterday's storm was indeed short duration, as forecast, since it never even materialized for a significant portion of the region. And the most heavily populated portion at that, so needless to say it did not have the "high impact" that was forecast. However, it did for a portion of the region to the south, as illustrated below. But obviously this is in sharp contrast to the forecast, which called for a high impact over most of the region. The forecast largely verified over the southern half of the area, as the max amount of 15.5" was reported in Farmington, CT. But clearly the entire system evolved approximately 50 miles to the south of the forecast track, as evidenced by the very light amounts to the north. And its much easier to see why that was the case in hindsight than it was to forecast it. Northern Stream Kept Southern Stream at Bay The forecast for a major storm system across the area was predicated one the notion that the northern stream would begin to interact with the southern stream system just as it traversed the area. But the reality was that the northern disturbance remained separate until it they both bypassed the region, yet close enough for the northern energy to deflect the southern disturbance, which was responsible for the storm, a bit further to the south. This had two important ramifications that greatly reduced snowfall across the area. 1) The northern steam system remained discrete enough to avoid any phasing until east of the region, which consequently prevented it from gaining the latitude that results from the merging with the northern steam a one subsumes the other. This is why the snowfall shield was displaced about 50 miles to the south of forecast and it was not apparent that this would be the case until Monday afternoon. 2) The weaker precipitation as a result of the storm remaining to the south was the result of more meager atmospheric dynamics, which also meant a decreased ability for snowfall to overcome what was a marginal airmass near the east coast of Mass. This is why the snowfall forecast actually verified over the cape and islands, where the precipitation was as heavy as forecast. However, it meany hardly any snowfall accumulation at all across the Boston metropolitan area instead of the 8-12" and 6-10" range that was forecast. FINAL GRADE: F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thoughts on "The Great Forecasting Debacle of 2024" Why The Forecast Failed The good news is that yesterday's storm was indeed short duration, as forecast, since it never even materialized for a significant portion of the region. And the most heavily populated portion at that, so needless to say it did not have the "high impact" that was forecast. However, it did for a portion of the region to the south, as illustrated below. But obviously this is in sharp contrast to the forecast, which called for a high impact over most of the region. The forecast largely verified over the southern half of the area, as the max amount of 15.5" was reported in Farmington, CT. But clearly the entire system evolved approximately 50 miles to the south of the forecast track, as evidenced by the very light amounts to the north. And its much easier to see why that was the case in hindsight than it was to forecast it. Northern Stream Kept Southern Stream at Bay The forecast for a major storm system across the area was predicated one the notion that the northern stream would begin to interact with the southern stream system just as it traversed the area. But the reality was that the northern disturbance remained separate until it they both bypassed the region, yet close enough for the northern energy to deflect the southern disturbance, which was responsible for the storm, a bit further to the south. This had two important ramifications that greatly reduced snowfall across the area. 1) The northern steam system remained discrete enough to avoid any phasing until east of the region, which consequently prevented it from gaining the latitude that results from the merging with the northern steam a one subsumes the other. This is why the snowfall shield was displaced about 50 miles to the south of forecast and it was not apparent that this would be the case until Monday afternoon. 2) The weaker precipitation as a result of the storm remaining to the south was the result of more meager atmospheric dynamics, which also meant a decreased ability for snowfall to overcome what was a marginal airmass near the east coast of Mass. This is why the snowfall forecast actually verified over the cape and islands, where the precipitation was as heavy as forecast. However, it meany hardly any snowfall accumulation at all across the Boston metropolitan area instead of the 8-12" and 6-10" range that was forecast. FINAL GRADE: F Good write up thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 A Decade of Reflections on My Recovery from Alcoholism Overcoming & Accepting Losses to Reframe the Narrative of Your Life If I am being truthful with myself, which is one of the first things you learn to do in recovery, I am honestly not sure of the exact date that I consumed my last drink. From what I can recall, I made the consious committment with a promise to my ailing father late in the winter of 2014, approximately one week before learning that he would be placed on Hospice care. I approximate this date as February 20th, 2014. However, I technically relpased in July 2014, just four months following the death of my father on March 5, 2014. While tecnically this validated the presumption of literally everyone around me that the death of my dad would in fact have this impact on me. I can legitimately say that in all honestly it actually had the opposite impact on my life in the most profound manner imaginable.The truth is that I hadn't realized that the jello-shot that I ingested that summer night had alcohol in it. Thus I had remained true to my conviction and acted in accordance with the higher power that my father now representes, which to me is the very essence of my sobriety. As far as I am concerned, today, February 20th, 2024, makes 10 years of sobriety for me. And it is this past decade worth of evolution and metamorphis that has completely reshaped the lens throuugh which I view life. And consequently the narrative with which I identify. But that change did not happen abruptly. It was the most arduous and excruciating of journeys imaginable to arrive at the most wonderful and gratifying destination that is self-actualzation. My Love of Weather isn't the Only Reason that the Middle Name of all of My Children Represent Seasons. This Hangs in My Office as a Reminder of the Perserverence & Resilinece it Takes to Carry on Afrer Reaching "Rock Bottom" Rule #1: In order to accept losses one needs to be truthful Addiction is synonymous with loss. Loss of health. Loss of job. Loss of relationships. Loss of both the trust of others and trust in one self. What all of this culminates in is the loss of integrity, personal conviction and self-esteem. In some cases even the loss of life. It is impossible to value others when you do not value yourself. This descent into moral/spiritual and physical decay is insidious because it entails a decreased level of consciousness, as sort of a protective defense mechanism of the psyche that makes it easier to accept as the personal degradation continues. This is reflected by the ease with which we make decsions that are not in accordance with our conscious, which results in internal conflict and strife that contributes to the obliteration of our sense of self. Thus making it easier to continue making poor decisions. Treating others with respect is virtually impossible when we do not value ourselves and through our actions have forged pathways in the brain that predispose us to making impulsive decisions with a decreased level of consciousness. In order to put this into proper context, cessation of the substance is the "easy" part; then the real work of dealing with all of this psychological carnage can begin. And given that there is a radius of impact at play, there is also a great amount of damage inflicted to loved ones, as well. This makes earning back the trust of others a long and deliberate process, but not at all impossible in most cases. Once the drinking/drug use stops, a funny thing happens in that you escape that distorted and diseased sense of reality that developed as a protective measure to justify and perpetuate the substance use. It becomes possible to view life obvectively, and while it very well may not be very asthetically pleasing in the immediate aftermath of addicton, you can begin to garner an accurate assessment of what needs to be done and in so doing redevelop trust in yourself. Over time you become accustomed to doing whatever it is that you feel is right again, which is often congruent with treating others in a respectful manner. Acceptance of relaity in early recovery is tremendously difficult because it requires a truthful personal inventory of the state of one's life. This entailed my acceptance of the fact that I was 32 years old, single and still living with my mother, which in and of itself is fine. However, in my case, it also meant that I needed to, for the first time in my life, accept the reality that I had failed to avail myself of a multitude of opportunities and relatively plentiful resources out of fear. Fear of failure and fear or judegement. Fear of my father's mortality. Fear of the day-to-day grind of being a functioning adult. These are all normal emotions that instead of becoming more adept at managing with the passage of time, one develop a proclivity for short term relief via substance use, which begins to breed dependency that infects our bodies, and spreads throughout our sense of self and psycyhe like cancer. And as the disease progresses, not only is our ability to assess life in decline, but so is our ability manage it all while the issues that necessitate management continue to mount. The reality is that you can chose to drive blind folded, but the vehcile of life can not be stopped. In hindsight, the choice of whether to drive with the benefit of sight is your's to make. Ten years ago today, on February 20th 2014, for the first time many years, I chose to remove the blind fold and actually have a fighting chance at navigating life. It was time to face the reality that my father's opportunity to see me make something of myself had come and gone and all I had to show for it was a second OUI conviction. And I only had myself to blame. I have a lifetime to live with that. It was time to face just how far I had fallen behind my peers. It was time to face the fact that my crude attempt at freezing time by blacking-out muiltiple times per week did nothing of the sort, and only left me further behind and less equipped to deal with its passage. The cruelest irony of all was that these were all fears that actually fostered my dependency on alcohol, and as insidious and cunning as alcoholism is, it only ensured that they came about rather than me from them. . Rule #2: Its not what has happened that defines you. Its what is happening and what is going to happen. My Late Father Actually Typed This Out In A desperate Plea to End My Rumination Over the Past And Allow Me to Focus on My Future. The Rest is History and Ten Years Later It Remains Framed in My Office Today there is a certain duality to my recovery in that I am able to compartamentalize the past in order remain mindful of it without being consumed by it. This allows me to also be present in the moment in order to focus on the current and future welfare of myself and my family. But this was not always the case. My late father spent the better part of the last year of his life pleading with me and desperately trying to will me out of the spiraling abyss of rumination that had consumed my life. There he lay dying and all he could concern himself with was me and whether or not I would be okay and ever begin laughing again like I used to. There I was so mired in self-aborption and pity that I never did take the time the make that one weekend excrusion to Cooperstown to see the MLB Hall of Fame that he always wanted. Sure, I ended up asking while he was bed-ridden in Hospice care even though I knew it was too late. We mutually settled on a postponement until after a recovery that we both knew would never come. A) One of the primary reasons I drank was to escape the reality of his mortality. The reason I was so ill-prepard to face his mortality was that I drank. C) The primary reason that I no longer drink is my ultimate ability to accept his mortality. If there were every a crude schematic for "dummies" as to the progression of the recovery from alcholism, this is it. Trigger-consequence for mal adaptive response-insight and acceptance. Following the passing of my father, gradually the preoccupation with missed opportunity, failure to accrue potential perceived wealth and failed relationships began to subside and I was able to realize the opportunity that laid before me. For the first time in my life, I had to incur consequences without having them removed. I had a job I hated, I lost my driver's license for over a year a mere 20 days following the death of my father and yet another relationship was over. But as I finally began to slow the seemingly endless cycle of self-pity and rumination, both the present and future began to come into better focus. I could appreciate the fact that owning my behavior, accepting responsibility and emerging from this turmoil without being propped up by my father posed a unique and novel opportunity for me begin to more independently carve out a life and begin to respect myself again. This Momento Hanging in my office is Symbolic of the Mindset that it Takes to End the Cycle of Rumination & Fully Commit to Recovery The time being single allowed me to focus within as opposed to my previous aversion to doing so. And actually develop a plan for my life that included going back to school to get my MSW and ultimately leaving the job that I hated so much. The key to ending misery is taking action to do something abouty your misery. Go figure- Taking action early on in recovery represents a crucial vehicle for the shift in perspective from one that laments life to one that sees the potential of life. When I had reached that low point in my existence, I had never felt so different from the father that I respected so much and was convinced that I was that "apple that fell so hopelessly very far from the tree". But over time I began to enjoy life again and it wasn't until many years later, aided by a greatly enhanced breadth of perspective, that I could appreciate just how much like my father I really was. He had become the man that he was by coming from a family of very limited means and overcoming adversity. And for the first time in my life, I had also perservered in the face of tremendous adversity. It is these qualities that he had so desperately tried to will into me and unseccesfully instill in me, that I was ultimately able to develop through perserverence. What he failed to tech me in life he instilled in death. The reality is that it sometimes takes a hole as gigantic as the one seared by the throes of addiction for the beam of enlightment to shine through. No one has given me my sobriety. I have earned it. Recovery from addiction affords people with a unique opportunity and breadth of perspective that can only be gleaned through enduring that unique hell at rock bottom and having the strength and resiliency to rebuiild oneself from the gorund up. There is a reason that the most compelling of movie scripts always feature a period of tension and doubt through which the main characters ultimately perservere. Anyone in recovery has the opporunity to write that script as long as they still have a pulse and air in their lungs. Its crucial to always remember that you hold the pen to the script for the narrative of your life and that is a temendous power. But in order to take advantage of that, it is imperative to both let go and accept the past so that all energy can be allocated towards the present and the future. "Accepting and letting go" of the past simply implies that rumination comes to an end and relaity is accepted, however, this does not prohibit the ability to remain mindful of lessons learned and therein lays the duaility of recovery. This is a delicate balance that is always refined over a lifetime and what makes maintaining this even more challening is the changes to the brain that take place during extended periods of addiction. Rule #3: You don't need to teach an old dog new tricks. But rather news ways of doing the same tricks. I recently had a psychotherapy client lament to me in session that "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". What he was referring to was a certain rigidity regarding thought patterns and proclivities that have been forged over a lifetime that were causing issues in his life. As a recovering alcoholic, my mind immediately drew a parallel to my own personal journey through recovery and the personality traits and thought patterns that rendered my susecpitble to it. My response to him was "you do not have to teach an old dog new tricks". I then proceeded to reframe his thought pattern using a strength-based perspective that could potentially be advantageious for him, as opposed to self-defeating. This is a perspective that is directly applicable to those recovering from addiction. There is no cure for addiction; this is why we are always "recovering" and never "recovered". The key is, much like I articulated to my client, to view the trait(s) as a strength and seek outlets to utilize those obsessive tendnecies constructively instead of deconstructively. Accept them as being a part of you because they are. In lieu of drinking, I rellocated that energy towards my passion for sports and became involved in fantasy baseball. I channeled that obsessive proclivity into starting a blog amd earning my LICSW, where I focused on my passion for meteorology much more extensively and utilized my own personal exerience to assit others in empowering themselves. I immersed myself in exercise much more intensely and refined my weight training program. Addiction and the obsessive prolcivities that drive and accompany it can not be cured, but they can be harnassed and rechanneled towards productive outlets to provide the structure necessary to continue on the road to recovery and overall enhanced quality of life. Conclusions There are a few folks in my network who are mindful of my 10 year anniversary and the question of how large of a sobriety chip is awarded for 10 years has been posed. My answer is invariably four pretty damn large ones that epitoize everything that was made possible by my sobriety and the changes that were made along with it: Its no coincidence that I was never able to remain faithful in any relationship until after I stopped drinking. I didn't respect myself enough to maintain the level consciousness necessary to remain faithful to myself, so there was just no way I could remain faithful to anyone else. But through my sobriety I now have the self-respect to honor myself and my family by treating my wife they way that I would like my own daughter to be treate done day. And four years ago on our first wedding anniversary, my wife suprised me with that elusive trip to Cooperstown that my father never made it to. The reality is that while my past no longer detracts from my present and future, it still provides some tearful excursions along the way during personal times of relfection, which keep me grounded. The passage of time and collection of experiences has afforded me a certain serenity through which I no longer torment myself over what has happened and instead celebreate what is happening and what is going to happen. I can accept that I just wasn't meant to figure things out until after my father passed because if I were, I would have. And I am confident that if he knew the impact that his loss would have on me, then he would without hesitation have made the sacrafice of never having met his grandchildren and his beautiful daughter-in-law. Hell, knowing what I know now, he never really met me, or at least this version of me that he would have liked to know. I'm from perfect and am still learning to naviagte the issue of loss. I still struggle with the loss of a dear friend just his past year. However, the difference is that today I have both my sobriety and my family, so I have a fighting chance- 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A Decade of Reflections on My Recovery from Alcoholism Overcoming & Accepting Losses to Reframe the Narrative of Your Life If I am being truthful with myself, which is one of the first things you learn to do in recovery, I am honestly not sure of the exact date that I consumed my last drink. From what I can recall, I made the consious committment with a promise to my ailing father late in the winter of 2014, approximately one week before learning that he would be placed on Hospice care. I approximate this date as February 20th, 2014. However, I technically relpased in July 2014, just four months following the death of my father on March 5, 2014. While tecnically this validated the presumption of literally everyone around me that the death of my dad would in fact have this impact on me. I can legitimately say that in all honestly it actually had the opposite impact on my life in the most profound manner imaginable.The truth is that I hadn't realized that the jello-shot that I ingested that summer night had alcohol in it. Thus I had remained true to my conviction and acted in accordance with the higher power that my father now representes, which to me is the very essence of my sobriety. As far as I am concerned, today, February 20th, 2024, makes 10 years of sobriety for me. And it is this past decade worth of evolution and metamorphis that has completely reshaped the lens throuugh which I view life. And consequently the narrative with which I identify. But that change did not happen abruptly. It was the most arduous and excruciating of journeys imaginable to arrive at the most wonderful and gratifying destination that is self-actualzation. My Love of Weather isn't the Only Reason that the Middle Name of all of My Children Represent Seasons. This Hangs in My Office as a Reminder of the Perserverence & Resilinece it Takes to Carry on Afrer Reaching "Rock Bottom" Rule #1: In order to accept losses one needs to be truthful Addiction is synonymous with loss. Loss of health. Loss of job. Loss of relationships. Loss of both the trust of others and trust in one self. What all of this culminates in is the loss of integrity, personal conviction and self-esteem. In some cases even the loss of life. It is impossible to value others when you do not value yourself. This descent into moral/spiritual and physical decay is insidious because it entails a decreased level of consciousness, as sort of a protective defense mechanism of the psyche that makes it easier to accept as the personal degradation continues. This is reflected by the ease with which we make decsions that are not in accordance with our conscious, which results in internal conflict and strife that contributes to the obliteration of our sense of self. Thus making it easier to continue making poor decisions. Treating others with respect is virtually impossible when we do not value ourselves and through our actions have forged pathways in the brain that predispose us to making impulsive decisions with a decreased level of consciousness. In order to put this into proper context, cessation of the substance is the "easy" part; then the real work of dealing with all of this psychological carnage can begin. And given that there is a radius of impact at play, there is also a great amount of damage inflicted to loved ones, as well. This makes earning back the trust of others a long and deliberate process, but not at all impossible in most cases. Once the drinking/drug use stops, a funny thing happens in that you escape that distorted and diseased sense of reality that developed as a protective measure to justify and perpetuate the substance use. It becomes possible to view life obvectively, and while it very well may not be very asthetically pleasing in the immediate aftermath of addicton, you can begin to garner an accurate assessment of what needs to be done and in so doing redevelop trust in yourself. Over time you become accustomed to doing whatever it is that you feel is right again, which is often congruent with treating others in a respectful manner. Acceptance of relaity in early recovery is tremendously difficult because it requires a truthful personal inventory of the state of one's life. This entailed my acceptance of the fact that I was 32 years old, single and still living with my mother, which in and of itself is fine. However, in my case, it also meant that I needed to, for the first time in my life, accept the reality that I had failed to avail myself of a multitude of opporunities and relatively plentiful resources out of fear. Fear of failure and fear or judegement. Fear of my father's mortality. Fear of the day-to-day grind of being a functioning adult. These are all normal empotions that instead of becoming more adept at managing with the passage of time, one develop a proclivity for short term relief via substance use, which begins to breed dependency that infects our bodies, and spreads throughout our sense of self and psycyhe like cancer. And as the disease progresses, not only is our ability to assess life in decline, but so is our ability manage it all while the issues that necessitate management continue to mount. The reality is that you can chose to drive blind folded, but the vehcile of life can not be stopped. In hindsight, the choice of whether to drive with the benefit of sight is your's to make. Ten years ago today, on February 20th 2014, for the first time many years, I chose to remove the blind fold and actually have a fighting chance at navigating life. It was time to face the reality that my father's opportunity to see me make something of myself had come and gone and all I had to show for it was a second OUI conviction. And I only had myself to blame. I have a lifetime to live with that. It was time to face just how far I had fallen behind my peers. It was time to face the fact that my crude attempt at freezing time by blacking-out muiltiple times per week did nothing of the sort, and only left me further behind and less equipped to deal with its passage. The cruelest irony of all was that these were all fears that actually fostered my dependency on alcohol, and as insidious and cunning as alcoholism is, it only ensured that they came about rather than me from them. . Rule #2: Its not what has happened that defines you. Its what is happening and what is going to happen. My Late Father Actually Typed This Out In A desperate Plea to End My Rumination Over the Past And Allow Me to Focus on My Future. The Rest is History and Ten Years Later It Remains Framed in My Office Today there is a certain duality to my recovery in that I am able to compartamentalize the past in order remain mindful of it without being consumed by it. This allows me to also be present in the moment in order to focus on the current and future welfare of myself and my family. But this was not always the case. My late father spent the better part of the last year of his life pleading with me and desperately trying to will me out of the spiraling abyss of rumination that had consumed my life. There he lay dying and all he could concern himself with was me and whether or not I would be okay and ever begin laughing again like I used to. There I was so mired in self-aborption and pity that I never did take the time the make that one weekend excrusion to Cooperstown to see the MLB Hall of Fame that he always wanted. Sure, I ended up asking while he was bed-ridden in Hospice care even though I knew it was too late. We mutually settled on a postponement until after a recovery that we both knew would never come. A) One of the primary reasons I drank was to escape the reality of his mortality. The reason I was so ill-prepard to face his mortality was that I drank. C) The primary reason that I no longer drink is my ultimate ability to accept his mortality. If there were every a crude schematic for "dummies" as to the progression of the recovery from alcholism, this is it. Trigger-consequence for mal adaptive response-insight and acceptance. Following the passing of my father, gradually the preoccupation with missed opportunity, failure to accrue potential perceived wealth and failed relationships began to subside and I was able to realize the opportunity that laid before me. For the first time in my life, I had to incur consequences without having them removed. I had a job I hated, I lost my driver's license for over a year a mere 20 days following the death of my father and yet another relationship was over. But as I finally began to slow the seemingly endless cycle of self-pity and rumination, both the present and future began to come into better focus. I could appreiate the fact that owning my behavior, accepting responbsibility and emerging from this turmoil without being propped up by my father posed a unique and novel opportunity for me begin to more independently carve out a life and begin to respect myself again. The time being single allowed me to focus within as opposed to my previous aversion to doing so. And actually develop a plan for my life that included going back to school to get my MSW and ultimately leaving the job that I hated so much. The key to ending misery is taking action to do something abouty your misery. Go figure- Taking action early on in recovery represents a crucial vehicle for the shift in perspective from one that laments life to one that sees the potential of life. When I had reached that low point in my existence, I had never felt so different from the father that I respected so much and was convinced that I was that "apple that fell so hopelessly very far from the tree". But over time I began to enjoy life again and it wasn't until many years later, aided by a greatly enhanced breadth of perspective, that I could appreciate just how much like my father I really was. He had become the man that he was by coming from a family of very limited means and overcoming adversity. And for the first time in my life, I had also perservered in the face of tremendous adversity. It is these qualities that he had so desperately tried to will into me and unseccesfully instill in me, that I was ultimately able to develop through perserverence. What he failed to tech me in life he instilled in death. The reality is that it sometimes takes a hole as gigantic as the one seared by the throes of addiction for the beam of enlightment to shine through. No one has given me my sobriety. I have earned it. Recovery from addiction affords people with a unique opportunity and breadth of perspective that can only be gleaned through enduring that unique hell at rock bottom and having the strength and resiliency to rebuiild oneself from the gorund up. There is a reason that the most compelling of movie scripts always feature a period of tension and doubt through which the main characters ultimately perservere. Anyone in recovery has the opporunity to write that script as long as they still have a pulse and air in their lungs. Its crucial to always remember that you hold the pen to the script for the narrative of your life and that is a temendous power. But in order to take advantage of that, it is imperative to both let go and accept the past so that all energy can be allocated towards the present and the future. "Accepting and letting go" of the past simply implies that rumination comes to an end and relaity is accepted, however, this does not prohibit the ability to remain mindful of lessons learned and therein lays the duaility of recovery. This is a delicate balance that is always refined over a lifetime and what makes maintaining this even more challening is the changes to the brain that take place during extended periods of addiction. Rule #3: You don't need to teach an old dog new tricks. But rather news ways of doing the same tricks. I recently had a psychotherapy client lament to me in session that "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". What he was referring to was a certain rigidity regarding thought patterns and proclivities that have been forged over a lifetime that were causing issues in his life. As a recovering alcoholic, my mind immediately drew a parallel to my own personal journey through recovery and the personality traits and thought patterns that rendered my susecpitble to it. My response to him was "you do not have to teach an old dog new tricks". I then proceeded to reframe his thought pattern using a strength-based perspective that could potentially be advantageious for him, as opposed to self-defeating. This is a perspective that is directly applicable to those recovering from addiction. There is no cure for addiction; this is why we are always "recovering" and never "recovered". The key is, much like I articulated to my client, to view the trait(s) as a strength and seek outlets to utilize those obsessive tendnecies constructively instead of deconstructively. Accept them as being a part of you because they are. In lieu of drinking, I rellocated that energy towards my passion for sports and became involved in fantasy baseball. I channeled that obsessive proclivity into starting a blog amd earning my LICSW, where I focused on my passion for meteorology much more extensively and utilized my own personal exerience to assit others in empowering themselves. I immersed myself in exercise much more intensely and refined my weight training program. Addiction and the obsessive prolcivities that drive and accompany it can not be cured, but they can be harnassed and rechanneled towards productive outlets to provide the structure necessary to continue on the road to recovery and overall enhanced quality of life. Conclusions There are a few folks in my network who are mindful of my 10 year anniversary and the question of how large of a sobriety chip is awarded for 10 years has been posed. My answer is invariably four pretty damn large ones that epitoize everything that was made possible by my sobriety and the changes that were made along with it: Its no coincidence that I was never able to remain faithful in any relationship until after I stopped drinking. I didn't respect myself enough to maintain the level consciousness necessary to remain faithful to myself, so there was just no way I could remain faithful to anyone else. But through my sobriety I now have the self-respect to honor myself and my family by treating my wife they way that I would like my own daughter to be treate done day. And four years ago on our first wedding anniversary, my wife suprised me with that elusive trip to Cooperstown that my father never made it to. The reality is that while my past no longer detracts from my present and future, it still provides some tearful excursions along the way during personal times of relfection, which keep me grounded. The passage of time and collection of experiences has afforded me a certain serenity through which I no longer torment myself over what has happened and instead celebreate what is happening and what is going to happen. I can accept that I just wasn't meant to figure things out until after my father passed because if I were, I would have. And I am confident that if he knew the impact that his loss would have on me, then he would without hesitation have made the sacrafice of never having met his grandchildren and his beautiful daughter-in-law. Hell, knowing what I know now, he never really met me, or at least this version of me that he would have liked to know. I'm from perfect and am still learning to naviagte the issue of loss. I still struggle with the loss of a dear friend just his past year. However, the difference is that today I have both my sobriety and my family, so I have a fighting chance- Ray, Thanks for sharing. You are stronger than you think, you are blessed, a home, a career , and a beautiful family. Wether you believe or not, have faith, and my father once told me many years ago,"a little prayer never hurts" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A Decade of Reflections on My Recovery from Alcoholism Overcoming & Accepting Losses to Reframe the Narrative of Your Life If I am being truthful with myself, which is one of the first things you learn to do in recovery, I am honestly not sure of the exact date that I consumed my last drink. From what I can recall, I made the consious committment with a promise to my ailing father late in the winter of 2014, approximately one week before learning that he would be placed on Hospice care. I approximate this date as February 20th, 2014. However, I technically relpased in July 2014, just four months following the death of my father on March 5, 2014. While tecnically this validated the presumption of literally everyone around me that the death of my dad would in fact have this impact on me. I can legitimately say that in all honestly it actually had the opposite impact on my life in the most profound manner imaginable.The truth is that I hadn't realized that the jello-shot that I ingested that summer night had alcohol in it. Thus I had remained true to my conviction and acted in accordance with the higher power that my father now representes, which to me is the very essence of my sobriety. As far as I am concerned, today, February 20th, 2024, makes 10 years of sobriety for me. And it is this past decade worth of evolution and metamorphis that has completely reshaped the lens throuugh which I view life. And consequently the narrative with which I identify. But that change did not happen abruptly. It was the most arduous and excruciating of journeys imaginable to arrive at the most wonderful and gratifying destination that is self-actualzation. My Love of Weather isn't the Only Reason that the Middle Name of all of My Children Represent Seasons. This Hangs in My Office as a Reminder of the Perserverence & Resilinece it Takes to Carry on Afrer Reaching "Rock Bottom" Rule #1: In order to accept losses one needs to be truthful Addiction is synonymous with loss. Loss of health. Loss of job. Loss of relationships. Loss of both the trust of others and trust in one self. What all of this culminates in is the loss of integrity, personal conviction and self-esteem. In some cases even the loss of life. It is impossible to value others when you do not value yourself. This descent into moral/spiritual and physical decay is insidious because it entails a decreased level of consciousness, as sort of a protective defense mechanism of the psyche that makes it easier to accept as the personal degradation continues. This is reflected by the ease with which we make decsions that are not in accordance with our conscious, which results in internal conflict and strife that contributes to the obliteration of our sense of self. Thus making it easier to continue making poor decisions. Treating others with respect is virtually impossible when we do not value ourselves and through our actions have forged pathways in the brain that predispose us to making impulsive decisions with a decreased level of consciousness. In order to put this into proper context, cessation of the substance is the "easy" part; then the real work of dealing with all of this psychological carnage can begin. And given that there is a radius of impact at play, there is also a great amount of damage inflicted to loved ones, as well. This makes earning back the trust of others a long and deliberate process, but not at all impossible in most cases. Once the drinking/drug use stops, a funny thing happens in that you escape that distorted and diseased sense of reality that developed as a protective measure to justify and perpetuate the substance use. It becomes possible to view life obvectively, and while it very well may not be very asthetically pleasing in the immediate aftermath of addicton, you can begin to garner an accurate assessment of what needs to be done and in so doing redevelop trust in yourself. Over time you become accustomed to doing whatever it is that you feel is right again, which is often congruent with treating others in a respectful manner. Acceptance of relaity in early recovery is tremendously difficult because it requires a truthful personal inventory of the state of one's life. This entailed my acceptance of the fact that I was 32 years old, single and still living with my mother, which in and of itself is fine. However, in my case, it also meant that I needed to, for the first time in my life, accept the reality that I had failed to avail myself of a multitude of opportunities and relatively plentiful resources out of fear. Fear of failure and fear or judegement. Fear of my father's mortality. Fear of the day-to-day grind of being a functioning adult. These are all normal emotions that instead of becoming more adept at managing with the passage of time, one develop a proclivity for short term relief via substance use, which begins to breed dependency that infects our bodies, and spreads throughout our sense of self and psycyhe like cancer. And as the disease progresses, not only is our ability to assess life in decline, but so is our ability manage it all while the issues that necessitate management continue to mount. The reality is that you can chose to drive blind folded, but the vehcile of life can not be stopped. In hindsight, the choice of whether to drive with the benefit of sight is your's to make. Ten years ago today, on February 20th 2014, for the first time many years, I chose to remove the blind fold and actually have a fighting chance at navigating life. It was time to face the reality that my father's opportunity to see me make something of myself had come and gone and all I had to show for it was a second OUI conviction. And I only had myself to blame. I have a lifetime to live with that. It was time to face just how far I had fallen behind my peers. It was time to face the fact that my crude attempt at freezing time by blacking-out muiltiple times per week did nothing of the sort, and only left me further behind and less equipped to deal with its passage. The cruelest irony of all was that these were all fears that actually fostered my dependency on alcohol, and as insidious and cunning as alcoholism is, it only ensured that they came about rather than me from them. . Rule #2: Its not what has happened that defines you. Its what is happening and what is going to happen. My Late Father Actually Typed This Out In A desperate Plea to End My Rumination Over the Past And Allow Me to Focus on My Future. The Rest is History and Ten Years Later It Remains Framed in My Office Today there is a certain duality to my recovery in that I am able to compartamentalize the past in order remain mindful of it without being consumed by it. This allows me to also be present in the moment in order to focus on the current and future welfare of myself and my family. But this was not always the case. My late father spent the better part of the last year of his life pleading with me and desperately trying to will me out of the spiraling abyss of rumination that had consumed my life. There he lay dying and all he could concern himself with was me and whether or not I would be okay and ever begin laughing again like I used to. There I was so mired in self-aborption and pity that I never did take the time the make that one weekend excrusion to Cooperstown to see the MLB Hall of Fame that he always wanted. Sure, I ended up asking while he was bed-ridden in Hospice care even though I knew it was too late. We mutually settled on a postponement until after a recovery that we both knew would never come. A) One of the primary reasons I drank was to escape the reality of his mortality. The reason I was so ill-prepard to face his mortality was that I drank. C) The primary reason that I no longer drink is my ultimate ability to accept his mortality. If there were every a crude schematic for "dummies" as to the progression of the recovery from alcholism, this is it. Trigger-consequence for mal adaptive response-insight and acceptance. Following the passing of my father, gradually the preoccupation with missed opportunity, failure to accrue potential perceived wealth and failed relationships began to subside and I was able to realize the opportunity that laid before me. For the first time in my life, I had to incur consequences without having them removed. I had a job I hated, I lost my driver's license for over a year a mere 20 days following the death of my father and yet another relationship was over. But as I finally began to slow the seemingly endless cycle of self-pity and rumination, both the present and future began to come into better focus. I could appreciate the fact that owning my behavior, accepting responsibility and emerging from this turmoil without being propped up by my father posed a unique and novel opportunity for me begin to more independently carve out a life and begin to respect myself again. This Momento Hanging in my office is Symbolic of the Mindset that it Takes to End the Cycle of Rumination & Fully Commit to Recovery The time being single allowed me to focus within as opposed to my previous aversion to doing so. And actually develop a plan for my life that included going back to school to get my MSW and ultimately leaving the job that I hated so much. The key to ending misery is taking action to do something abouty your misery. Go figure- Taking action early on in recovery represents a crucial vehicle for the shift in perspective from one that laments life to one that sees the potential of life. When I had reached that low point in my existence, I had never felt so different from the father that I respected so much and was convinced that I was that "apple that fell so hopelessly very far from the tree". But over time I began to enjoy life again and it wasn't until many years later, aided by a greatly enhanced breadth of perspective, that I could appreciate just how much like my father I really was. He had become the man that he was by coming from a family of very limited means and overcoming adversity. And for the first time in my life, I had also perservered in the face of tremendous adversity. It is these qualities that he had so desperately tried to will into me and unseccesfully instill in me, that I was ultimately able to develop through perserverence. What he failed to tech me in life he instilled in death. The reality is that it sometimes takes a hole as gigantic as the one seared by the throes of addiction for the beam of enlightment to shine through. No one has given me my sobriety. I have earned it. Recovery from addiction affords people with a unique opportunity and breadth of perspective that can only be gleaned through enduring that unique hell at rock bottom and having the strength and resiliency to rebuiild oneself from the gorund up. There is a reason that the most compelling of movie scripts always feature a period of tension and doubt through which the main characters ultimately perservere. Anyone in recovery has the opporunity to write that script as long as they still have a pulse and air in their lungs. Its crucial to always remember that you hold the pen to the script for the narrative of your life and that is a temendous power. But in order to take advantage of that, it is imperative to both let go and accept the past so that all energy can be allocated towards the present and the future. "Accepting and letting go" of the past simply implies that rumination comes to an end and relaity is accepted, however, this does not prohibit the ability to remain mindful of lessons learned and therein lays the duaility of recovery. This is a delicate balance that is always refined over a lifetime and what makes maintaining this even more challening is the changes to the brain that take place during extended periods of addiction. Rule #3: You don't need to teach an old dog new tricks. But rather news ways of doing the same tricks. I recently had a psychotherapy client lament to me in session that "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". What he was referring to was a certain rigidity regarding thought patterns and proclivities that have been forged over a lifetime that were causing issues in his life. As a recovering alcoholic, my mind immediately drew a parallel to my own personal journey through recovery and the personality traits and thought patterns that rendered my susecpitble to it. My response to him was "you do not have to teach an old dog new tricks". I then proceeded to reframe his thought pattern using a strength-based perspective that could potentially be advantageious for him, as opposed to self-defeating. This is a perspective that is directly applicable to those recovering from addiction. There is no cure for addiction; this is why we are always "recovering" and never "recovered". The key is, much like I articulated to my client, to view the trait(s) as a strength and seek outlets to utilize those obsessive tendnecies constructively instead of deconstructively. Accept them as being a part of you because they are. In lieu of drinking, I rellocated that energy towards my passion for sports and became involved in fantasy baseball. I channeled that obsessive proclivity into starting a blog amd earning my LICSW, where I focused on my passion for meteorology much more extensively and utilized my own personal exerience to assit others in empowering themselves. I immersed myself in exercise much more intensely and refined my weight training program. Addiction and the obsessive prolcivities that drive and accompany it can not be cured, but they can be harnassed and rechanneled towards productive outlets to provide the structure necessary to continue on the road to recovery and overall enhanced quality of life. Conclusions There are a few folks in my network who are mindful of my 10 year anniversary and the question of how large of a sobriety chip is awarded for 10 years has been posed. My answer is invariably four pretty damn large ones that epitoize everything that was made possible by my sobriety and the changes that were made along with it: Its no coincidence that I was never able to remain faithful in any relationship until after I stopped drinking. I didn't respect myself enough to maintain the level consciousness necessary to remain faithful to myself, so there was just no way I could remain faithful to anyone else. But through my sobriety I now have the self-respect to honor myself and my family by treating my wife they way that I would like my own daughter to be treate done day. And four years ago on our first wedding anniversary, my wife suprised me with that elusive trip to Cooperstown that my father never made it to. The reality is that while my past no longer detracts from my present and future, it still provides some tearful excursions along the way during personal times of relfection, which keep me grounded. The passage of time and collection of experiences has afforded me a certain serenity through which I no longer torment myself over what has happened and instead celebreate what is happening and what is going to happen. I can accept that I just wasn't meant to figure things out until after my father passed because if I were, I would have. And I am confident that if he knew the impact that his loss would have on me, then he would without hesitation have made the sacrafice of never having met his grandchildren and his beautiful daughter-in-law. Hell, knowing what I know now, he never really met me, or at least this version of me that he would have liked to know. I'm from perfect and am still learning to naviagte the issue of loss. I still struggle with the loss of a dear friend just his past year. However, the difference is that today I have both my sobriety and my family, so I have a fighting chance- Thanks for sharing. I too am in recovery. We are passionate people. As you stated a big part of recovery is learning redirect that passion in positive ways. You do a great job of that with your seasonal forecasts which I enjoy every year. Congratulations on 10 years, that’s an amazing accomplishment! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Congrats dude and well written. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 Much Milder Than Anticipated February Likely Signals End of Winter 2024 Western Pacific Plays Key Role in Very Warm February Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite: Which was reasonably well supported by guidance at the close of the month. But one key difference that is noted between the forecast charts above and what actually verified are the very low heights in the general vicinity of the Bering Sea. This is indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, which is a cousin of the East Pacific Oscillation that is frequently referenced here on Eastern Mass Weather. This is likely the primary reason why the the MJO spent much less time in phase 8 than forecast, which resulted in a much warmer northeastern CONUS than expected and significantly less high latitude blocking. Note the similarity between the +WPO loading map above with not only the previously posted February 2024 H5 chart, but also the pattern favored during phase 3 of the MJO during a warm ENSO month of February. This makes sense since the MJO is emerging in phase 3 after a very truncated passage through phase 8. Forecasts from Latter January were for the MJO to Spend Upwards of One Week in Phase 8 This is the proverbial "smoking gun" for the failed February forecasts and the reason why the forecast for normal to -2F February departures across the region: Ended up more in the vicinity of +3 to +5F range. The pattern did in fact turn cold with an opportunity for a major winter storm as advertised during the mid month flirtation with MJO phase 8, however, it only lasted one week due to the rapid translation of the MJO into the neutral circle. And once again the storm potential went unrealized. This is reflected by the drier than average monthly precipitation departure. This was not at all inconsistent with the precipitation anomaly forecast composite. 1991-2020: However, the very warm temperatures departures combined with the relative dearth of precipitation illustrated above to ensure much below average snowfall across most of the region. While the colder interlude of mid February was much shorter in duration and less remarkable than forecast, the warmer transition marked by a precipitous decline in the PNA near month's end in accordance with the emergence of the MJO into the Maritime continent appears right on schedule. Mild Month of March Spells an Early End to Winter March 2024 Outlook March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016 Here is the forecast H5 composite for the month of March: Versus Current Guidance: Monthly temperature departures should range from +2 to +4 across New England and the mid Atlantic. And this also has some support from the CFS guidance: Precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above normal across New England and near normal to slightly below average precipitation cross the mid Atlantic. The forecast philosophy is that the MJO should spend the vast majority of the month passing through the Maritime continent, with mild temperatures and significant snows confined to mostly northern New England. The first major test for this postulation should come during the second week of the month. Very Mild & Tranquil Start to March Before Storminess Week Two The first week of March is highly likely to be mild and quiet, as very low heights build into the west courtesy of a deep RNA, which will trigger the development of a strong ridge over the northeast CONUS. However, the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th. Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston). However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 Well Forecast Month of March Overall Very Mild & Nearly Snowless Month Here is the 500mb forecast composite for the month of March. Versus what has actually transpired. Overall a very solid 500mb forecast with a bit more blocking than expected over Greenland and Alaska than expected. The impact of the higher heights in the vicinity of Alaska (more negative EPO) was to focus the warmest anomalies slightly further to the east than suggested in the forecast composite. Be that as it may, the higher end of forecast departure range of between 2-4F above average over the forecast area verified. While monthly precipitation was expected to be somewhat above average across the region: It verified well above average and ever more anomalous than anticipated likely at least in part due to the positive monthly PNA. While this was significantly more excessive than the forecast composite implied, it was congruent with the primary analog of March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Final Call for Messy Mid-Week Storm Primarily Rain & Sleet for the Region There have been no significant changes from the First Call issued on Monday with respect to the major storm system poised to impact the region from Wednesday into perhaps Thursday evening. There still looks to be a mixed bag of precipitation from roughly the Mass pike points northward and primarily rainfall to the south of the Mass pike. Synoptic Evolution: Two pieces of energy are ejecting over the northern and southern sides respectively of the Rex Block situated over the western CONUS and will continue to congeal for the balance of the day and into tonight. Ordinarily the meeting of energy so far to the west would entail a significant likelihood of the resultant low pressure area tracking inland. But since the energy is going to coalesce beneath the strong -NAO block to the north and be forced to the ENE it will exit the coast in the general vicinity of southern New England. However, given that the system will become so powerful over the midwest, it will still advect warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere to the north and into the region as the system makes its approach. And while it will eventually transfer energy to the coast, the system begins to lose strength beforehand. This will make it extremely difficult to maintain heavy enough precipitation for a long enough period of time to overcome what will be a marginally cold enough atmospheric column for snowfall across the region. This is apparent in the sounding for Lawrence, MA, which depicts the several hour window past midnight during which light to moderate snowfall accumulations may occur. This is also reflected by the fleeting period of maximum forcing, which traverses the area quickly prior to mid level dry air advecting in. Thus problematic time period will be after midnight and predawn early Thursday, which may negatively impact the morning commute, especially points north of route 2. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light Rain will begin to break out Wednesday afternoon and evening. The lower levels of the atmosphere will become colder due to evaporational cooling working in conjunction with the loss of solar heating. However, warm air aloft will mean sleet as opposed to snowfall across northern areas initially during the evening. But the developing coastal storm should draw down enough cold air for the precipitation to transition to snowfall across northern areas as the heaviest burst moves in after midnight, especially given the absence of solar heating given that this will occur nocturnally. The precipitation should become more banded prior during the morning as the heaviest lift progresses north of the forecast area and drier mid level air is drawn in by the developing coastal low. Much of the precipitation that falls during the day on Thursday will be banded and of varying intensity, which coupled with the incoming April solar irradiance will greatly limit any additional snow and sleet accumulations inland. Snow and rain showers will linger into the day on Friday as the storm system well be very slow to exit the region as blizzard conditions persist across northern New England. In summary, the storm system is expected to grow very powerful so far to the west that it will advect in some warmer mid level air that will cause precipitation to begin as sleet and rain. There will then be competing forces, as dynamics will begin to be wane as the primary weakens only to be reinvigorated by the development of a secondary coastal system during the day on Thursday. However, given that the system will be impacting the forecast area during this time of transition, the dynamics necessary to overcome initial mid level warmth and April level of incoming solar irradiance during the day will be insufficient for an extended period of snowfall. Instead, expect light to perhaps moderate accumulations of snowfall during the predawn hours of Thursday AM, before drier mid level air causes precipitation to become more banded in nature by dawn on Thursday, which will struggle to accumulate during the daytime this late in the season. Final Call: First Call ( Issued Monday April 1 @ 1030AM): General Threat Assessment (Issued Saturday March 30 @ 6PM): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 Long Duration Nor' Easter Very Well Forecast Here is the Final Call for the major, long duration nor' easter that continues to intermittently effect the area even into this weekend. Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area. The only minor issues with the forecast being that the general 4-8" area over southern Vermont would have been better served to reflect 5-10". And the the 5-10" area over southern New Hampshire should have been more widespread, as opposed to being relegated to the higher terrain of the Monadnocks. But others this was a very skillful forecast that was honed a few days out in a what was a uniquely complex and multifaceted storm system. Final Grade: A- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 Winter 2023-2024 Outlook Largely A Failure A Case of Misinterpreted Implications of West Pacific Warmth Warmer than Expected December 2023 Using history as a guide, Eastern Mass Weather explained in the Winter Outlook why the convective forcing pattern in association with el Nino that had become established throughout the fall was unlikely to change during the winter. This ultimately proved correct. As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which coincides approximately with MJO phase 7. This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter. Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño: The December composite of robust El Niño events per meteorologist Eric Webb: And the pattern across the North America throughout the Holiday period: However, the magnitude of the warmth during the month was much great than forecast. Here is the 500mb verification and associated temperature anomaly map for the month of December. Versus the December analog composite portraying the anticipated +1 to +3 forecast temp departures across the forecast area for the month of December. Clearly the December analog derived forecast was not warm enough, as many regional departures finished several degrees above average. Here is the precipitation forecast, which underestimated regional precipitation as another consequence of the intense Pacific jet: Versus reality: Overall the month was milder than anticipated in large part due to just how overwhelmingly prominent that Pacific jet remained in conjunction with a strongly positve NAO, as southern New England saw little to no snowfall regionwide. "While the month should finish slightly mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events". But the devil is in the details with respect to the evolution of the hemispheric pattern and how it impacted temperatures across the CONUS. The AO averaged essentially neutral with a slight negative bias at -.22: The NAO, however, was decidedly positive at 1.94. The PNA actually averaged more robustly positive (1.94) than anticipated. Which belies the overall configuration of a Pacific basin that was poised to deliver a very mild flow of air throughout the central and eastern portion country for the majority of winter 2023-2024. Indeed, the pattern that emerged in December was indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, which is a cousin of the East Pacific Oscillation that is frequently referenced here on Eastern Mass Weather. Note the very pronounced strip of positive heights to the northwest of Hawaii during the month of December that were very characteristic of strongly positive Western Pacific Oscillation. The December H5 anomaly map above is fairly similar to the +WPO wintertime composite as it pertains to the aforementoned features. This should come as no suprise given that the month of December registered a a strongly positive WPO value of1.21 WPO value, which would become a reoccuring theme throughout the balance of winter 2023-2024. January Forecast a Modest Success Here is a review of the January forecast Narrative from November 11th: January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". Lets begin with a review of the behavior of the major teleconnections and an analysis of the forecast. The NAO was volatile and essentially neural for the month at +.21 The behavior of the AO can be characterized as very similar with volatile behavior that averaged essentially neutral in the aggregate (-.21). Thus the polar domain evolved largely as forecast. Finally, the PNA, while averaging slightly positive during the month of February at .45, belies the true nature of the pattern. First of all, the mid-month the arctic outbreak coincided with the one interlude of RNA, thus ensuring that the cold initially loaded west and only later translated east in a somewhat modified version. Additionally, the +PNA periods were largely biased to the west. This synoptic nuance was much like January 2023 in the sense that having the lower heights concentrated just off of the west coast actually reenforced deeper negative anomalies along the west in what was more representative to a RNA (-PNA) pattern. This is evident in the monthly H5 anomaly chart below. Note the ridge positioned off of the west coast, with the deep negative anomalies over the western CONUS in response. This is in comparison to the forecast H5 composite for the month January, which had slightly lower over the east than reality due to the Pacific ridge, presumably as a result of residual cool ENSO GLAAM and a very warm western Pacific. The result was that the month was slightly milder than forecast across the forecast region. Temperatures were expected to finish the month anywhere from near normal to about +2F over New England and near normal to as much as 2F below average over the mid Atlantic. However, New England finished more like +1 to +3F and the mid Atlantic near normal to +1F. This modest positive departure from forecast temp anomalies is in large part because of the mid month arctic outbreak loading west as a direct result of the aforementioned low Western CONUS heights. While this was a theme in the analog package, it was more pronounced than forecast. The forecast precipitation composite was heavily flawed, as January 2024 has been one of the wetter months of January on record along much of the east coast. But it was stipulated in the forecast that this was likely to be the case. "It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability". And it indeed was an issue. This is likely due to an active sub tropical jet working in concert with a a great deal of mass flux, as evidenced by the volatility of the major teleconnections. Overall the narrative for the month of January was largely accurate. The snowfall distribution for the month was indeed heavily weighted towards the interior, as forecast, in large part due to the major storm that occurred January 6-7th. Additionally, there was in fact a major volar vortex disruption as forecast (SSW), however, it occurred 9 days outside of the specified 12/25-1/8 window, on January 17 per Judah Cohen. Although the first of two identified seasonal windows for a major east coast snow storm looks to pass unceremoniously (1/22-2/5), the period did not want for opportunity. The first threat, which technically occurred just prior to the onset of the period around January 20, was simply not afforded enough wave space for the follow up polar vortex lobe to amplify. However, the potential did not go unnoticed by CIPS, which flagged matches to the days leading up to the Great Blizzard of 1978 (a January & February analog) and the Blizzard of January 1996 (residual cool ENSO GLAAM) as viable synoptic analogs. And the second round of potential within this window is set to occur on around February 5th. Western Pacific Again Plays Key Role in Much Warm Than Forcecast February Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite: Which was reasonably well supported by guidance at the close of the month. But one key difference that is noted between the forecast charts above and what actually verified are the very low heights in the general vicinity of the Bering Sea that also showed up during the month of December. While the extreme +WPO had moderatred during January (.67) it was stronger than ever during February, registering a mean monthly value of 1.56. Much like the month of December, the February mean 500mb chart is indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation. This is likely the primary reason why the the MJO spent much less time in phase 8 than forecast, which resulted in a much warmer northeastern CONUS than expected and significantly less high latitude blocking. The mean February AO value was .64 and the NAO value a strongly positive 1.09. Note the similarity between the +WPO loading map above with not only the previously posted February 2024 H5 chart, but also the pattern favored during phase 3 of the MJO during a warm ENSO month of February. This makes sense since the MJO is emerging in phase 3 after a very truncated passage through phase 8. Forecasts from Latter January were for the MJO to Spend Upwards of One Week in Phase 8 This was the proverbial "smoking gun" for the failed February forecast and the reason why the predicted range of normal to -2F February departures across the region verified so much warmer: Ended up more in the vicinity of the +4 to +5F range. Note the strong similarities to the +WPO loading pattern in terms of temperature anomalies during the DF period. The pattern did in fact turn cold with an opportunity for a major winter storm as advertised during the mid month flirtation with MJO phase 8, however, it only lasted one week due to the rapid translation of the MJO into the neutral circle. And once again the storm potential went unrealized. This is reflected by the drier than average monthly precipitation departure. This was not at all inconsistent with the precipitation anomaly forecast composite. 1991-2020: However, the very warm temperatures departures combined with the relative dearth of precipitation illustrated above to ensure much below average snowfall across most of the region. While the colder interlude of mid February was much shorter in duration and less remarkable than forecast, the warmer transition marked by a precipitous decline in the PNA near month's end was in accordance with the emergence of the MJO into the Maritime continent appears right on schedule. This acted to largely neutralize the monthly value at .09. Overall Very Mild & Nearly Snowless Month of March Well Forecast Here is the 500mb forecast composite for the month of March. Versus what has actually transpired. Overall a very solid 500mb forecast with a bit more blocking than expected over Greenland and Alaska. -.61 Mean AO for March & -.21 NAO The impact of the higher heights in the vicinity of Alaska as reflected by the modestly negative monthly EPO value of -.47 was to focus the warmest anomalies slightly further to the east than suggested in the forecast composite. Be that as it may, the higher end of forecast departure range of between 2-4F above average over the forecast area verified. While monthly precipitation was expected to be somewhat above average across the region: It verified well above average and ever more anomalous than anticipated likely at least in part due to the positive monthly PNA value of .45. While this was significantly more excessive than the forecast composite implied, it was congruent with the primary analog of March 2010. December-March 2022-2023 Composite Verification & Summarization Here is the DM 500mb anomaly forecast composite that was issued last November, as measured against the 1951-2010 climo period. Versus the actual DM 2023-2024 500mb anomaly chart. The general hemispheric configuration was portrayed with a reasonable degree of accuracy along with the expectation for a mild winter. However, these slight variances attributable to the west Pacific, as annotated below, were enough to ensure a historically warm winter as opposed to the mild season with more modest positive temperature departures that was predicted. This was very apparent when considering the DM temperature anomaly forecast composite measured against the 1951-2010 climo period. And the DM 2023-2024 observed temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 climo. Finally, the precipitation anomalies were generally consistent with the forecast. However, the positive departures across the northeast were more extreme than anticipated, which is likely at least partially attributed to the record degree of warmth in both the ambient atmosphere and latent heat stored in the oceans around the globe. This may have played a role in the more extreme negative departures over the Ohio River basin, as well. Technical Discussion of Winter 2023-2024 The primary postulation of this past season's outlook was integrated into the title of "Winter '23-'23 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity". The implication of this was that there would continue to be a weaker expression of El Nino throughout the hemisphere relative to the robust ONI as a direct result of a more meager thermal gradient between the east and west Pacific SSTs attributable to the ongoing Western Pacific Warm Pool. This diminished SST gradient would lend itself to a weaker pressure dipole between the west and east Pacific. . ASO 2023 Pacific Pressure Anomalies Resulting in more subdued Westerly Wind Bursts. ASO 2023 Pacific Basin Zonal Wind Anomalies That are characteristic of a tamer and modified version of the Walker Cycle in which the gradients are muted by a warmer west Pacific basin in the wake of the recent prolonged stretch of cool ENSO amid an overall warmer climate. Typical Mature Warm ENSO Walker Cycle It was argued that a metric such as the ONI, which is entirely predicated upon SST, is ill equipped to detect that the Walker Cycle is out of sync with and thus inhibiting the growth of el Nino because this reality is masked by the fact that the entire Pacific basin is a sea of warmth. Thus the archaic ONI belies the true modest intensity of this el Nino, which is of insufficient capacity to fully alter the former cool ENSO regime. As a result, the convective forcing has continued to reside further west than would conventionally be expected, closer to the western PAC maritime continent. This despite the very high anomalies over the fairly small Eastern ENSO regions. This all proved correct, as the RONI reached an OND peak of 1.49 and the MEI maxed out at a ND peak of 1.1, both substantially weaker than the SST derived peak ONI NDJ value of 2.0. Additionally, the forcing during winter 2023-2024 was indeed pinned near the dateline in classic Modoki fashion. This is in fact displaced to the west relative to expectation considering this was a basin-wide event that failed to even translate as far to the west as modeled, as it it peaked with .3 on the El Niño Modoki Index as opposed to the forecast range of .6 to .8. However, the Eastern Mass Weather supposition that this westward displaced forcing and more meager expression of El Niño throughout the hemisphere would translate into a pattern favorable for more extended periods of colder weather and snowfall throughout the northeast than is typical of such a robust basin-wide event was incorrect. Although the seasonal forcing was very similar to that of the Modoki dataset as forecast, the resultant DM mean 500mb anomaly pattern was drastically different. Note how much more reminiscent the pattern this past season was of the eastern-based canonical data set, despite the westward extension of the SST anomaly pattern and especially the convective forcing. This is likely due to the very prevalent +WPO last winter. Which is also a common feature among the east-based composite, as the mean DM WPO value of that dataset is .40. Furthermore, 4/5 members of that composite featured a +WPO in the DM seasonal mean and 3/5 were decidedly positive at greater than .60. This particular extra tropical oscillation became a very prominent driver last season since it was biased so extreme in one direction (1.10 DM seasonal mean) and the influence of ENSO was partially negated by a warmer west Pacific basin in the wake of the recent prolonged stretch of cool ENSO amid an ever-warming climate. December-March 2022-2023 Teleconnection Forecast Verification Although the peak ONI of El Niño was slightly stronger than the anticipated range of 1.7 to 1.9, it was also significantly more east based than forecast (.3 EMI as opposed to -6 to .8 forecast range) and relatively weakly coupled with the atmosphere as a byproduct of the intense West Pacific warm pool acting to engage the influence of the warm ENSO event. This rendered the nearly ideal placement of the mean tropical convection less pervasive and allowed the West Pacific, which was configured in a manner that was very hostile for northeast US cold and snow, to be the most prominent hemispheric driver. This is likely at least partially why the polar domain featured less blocking than forecast, as both the AO (forecast biased .20 negative) and especially the NAO (forecast biased .66 negative) averaged significantly more positive than expected. As a result of the largely unfavorable polar domain as a potential consequence of a hostile West Pacific, the fact that the EPO region averaged slightly more negatively than expected (-.04 DM as opposed to .30-.60 DM forecast) was largely made irrelevant due to cold once again loading across the western CONUS, which has been a very prevalent trend over the past several seasons. There is a definitive tendency for -PDO warm ENSO seasons to feature a significant snowfall minimum throughout southern New England and the decision to not weight this more heavily into the forecast was rendered even more regrettable by underestimation of the strength of the DM negative PDO by .91. Ironically enough, the PNA forecast range of -.35 to -.65 erred by just about the same amount in the opposite direction, as the actual DM mean reading of .55 was biased negatively. However, this was rendered a moot point given the highly anomalous DM 1.10 WPO. Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative Below is the verification for ENSO, as well as the various teleconnections over the past several years Index Value Seasons Verified Mean Forecast Error Forecast Bias Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0/8 Seasons .61 Biased Positive 5/8 Seasons Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) 1/8 Seasons .31 Biased Negative 4/8 Seasons ENSO 8/10 .002 too cold .35 EMI Biased cold 2/10 Seasons Biased west 3/6 Seasons (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) 3/8 Seasons .36 Biased Positive 4/8 Seasons Arctic Oscillation (AO) 1/8 Seasons 1.00 Biased Negative 6/8 Seasons North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 1/8 Seasons .77 Biased Negative 6/8 Seasons The aforementioned relationship between -PDO warm ENSO events and a pronounced snowfall minimum in the vicinity of southern New England and the northern Mid Atlantic was indeed very pronounced this past season, as snowfall forecast errors were largest in these areas. December-March 2023-2024 Snowfall Outlook Verification City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 42-52" 9.8" 328.6% NewYork, NY(Central Park) 25-35" 7.5" 233.3% Philadelphia, PA 27-37" 11.2" 141.1% Baltimore, MD 25-35" 11.3" 121.2% Washington, DC 20-30" 8.0" 150% Albany, NY 70-80" 31.8" 120.1% Hartford, CT 47-57" 24.6" 91.1% Providence, RI 30-40" 18.3" 63.9% Worcester, MA 75-85" 39.5" 90% Tolland, CT 65-75" 32.05" 102.8% Methuen, MA 65-75" 34.25" 90% Hyannis, MA 20-30" 8.5" 135.3% Burlington, VT 85-95" 60.8" 39.8% Portland, ME 65-75" 38" 71.1% Concord, NH 70-80" 55.5" 26.1% Snowfall was over forecast by as. much as 328.6% in Boston and 233.3% in Central Park. Errors were considerably less across interior southern New England, generally ranging from 90% to 102.8% and comparable to this over the mid Atlantic. The most accurate forecast was over the interior of northern New England, where very warm temperatures and a general dearth of high. latitude blocking were least prohibitive. Errors were as low as 39.8% in Burlington, VT and 26.1% in Concord, NH. How This Snowfall Forecast Compares To Past Efforts The mean snowfall forecasting error for the 2023-2024 winter season throughout the 15 select Mid Atlantic and northeast locations was 120.3%. This was the 7th most accurate forecast amongst the ten forecast seasons in terms of mean forecasting error. Only the 2022-2023 (900.6%) and 2019-2020 (678.3%) efforts fared worse. The seasonal forecast ranges verified in none of the cities and was closest in Concord, NH and Burlington, VT, with errors of 26.1% and 39.8%, respectively. The horrific results throughout southern New England and into the northern mid Atlantic region are the primary reason why this forecast struggled, where snowfall was over forecast by a ghastly 328.6% in Boston, MA and 233.3% in the Central Park station within New York City. The mean forecasting error with respect to the ten seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows: 2023-2024: 120.3% 2022-2023: 900.6% 2021-2022: 36.2% 2020-2021: 14.1% 2019-2020: 678.3% 2018-2019: 90.3% 2017-2018: 13.2% 2016-2017: 35.3% 2015-2016: 71.4% 2014-2015: 10.9% The ten season running mean error: 197.1% 29/147 (19.7%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast. 91/147 (61.9%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast. 26/147 (17.7%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range. Conclusions Last fall, Eastern Mass Weather correctly postulated that residual West Pacific warmth from the recent multi-year La Nina event working in concert with the background warming associated with climate change would yield a modified version of the Walker Cycle. This entailed that the Pacific basin pressure and thermal gradients that normally accompany and drive the development of the wind patterns (WWB) necessary to facilitate the transition of the Pacific basin from cool to warm ENSO were to a degree neutralized. The end result as expected was a more meager expressed El Niño than implied by the ONI, as well as a convective forcing scheme during this past winter that was displaced to the west to resemble that of a Modoki El Niño. While weaker El Nino events with Modoki like forcing are on average colder and snowier across the notheast, they also allow prominent extra tropical drivers to play a more crucial role in dictating the resultant weather pattern across the hemisphere, as "weaker" ENSO synonymous with competing forces around the hemisphere. Given that the 2023-2024 DM mean aggregate WPO value was 1.10 and one of the more extreme positive seasons on record, it is theorized that a played a very instrumental role in mitigating high latitude blocking and predisposing the southwestern US to troughing, which telconnects to higher heights over the northeast. This type of pattern is reminscent of the east-based canonical El Nino dataset and was reflecTed by the similarities that this past season had to that particular composite. Furthermore, there is a demonstrated proclivity for past El Niño events that have struggled to transition from a cool ENSO oriented Pacific basin, such as this past El Niño, to have the MJO struggle to enter phases 8 and 1. It is theorized that the vast pool of Western Pacific warmth amplified the tendency for the MJO to be predisposed to the Maritime Continent, largely eluding the dateline phases of 8 and 1 that are most favorable for northeast cold and snow, which is crucial during the warm ENSO climatological time for such occurrences during the month of February. In contrast, this is climatologically the most hostile time of the season for northeast cold and snow during cool ENSO events, so intuitively any struggle to transition the basin and eradicate residual cool ENSO GLAM in conjunction with a cold phase PDO that was significantly more robust that forecast would act to mitigate this most crucial period for northeast cold and snow during El Niño event. This tendency was indeed observed with respect to the MJO during the historically mild month of February 2024, which featured a notable absence of snowfall along the east coast. This was also noted during -PDO El Niño months of February 1995: And February 2007. However, February 2024 featured a much more notable absence of winter weather along the east coast than either of those months, likely due at least in part to the record amount of heat around the globe today as a byproduct of climate change working in concert with a much more hostile WPO. Moving forward, more consideration will be given to the West Pacific and the WPO will be added to future forecasting efforts. Additionally, greater caution will used with respect to the incorporation of older analogs into contemporary seasonal efforts amidst a rapidly warming planet. Final Grade for 2023-2024 Season: D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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