Winter '23-'24 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. 

That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. 

That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

Great work @40/70 Benchmark I enjoyed the read, and thanks for putting so much effort into it. Your dad must have been a great man.

[Ginx snewx]

Great novel Ray Ray good luck

[George001]

Good read. We don’t always agree, but I respect the transparency about your previous outlooks. I wish more seasonal forecasters would be as open about the results of their previous forecasts. It appears that we agree about the pacific, and where our forecasts differ is the polar domain. I’m solidly in the 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2018-2019 camp. Considering that you are forecasting nearly twice as much snow for my area as I am, I hope you are right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm going to convert all of those error percentages to SD in fairly short order.

[weathafella]

Great work, Ray!  Your effort and the countless hours preparing the forecast is much appreciated.  Good luck!

[Met1985]

Great work! Even though I live in the SE I read a lot from here because there are so many knowledgeable people and mets from this forum region. Well done!

[CoastalWx]

Thanks for posting Ray. I hope to read it over the next day. 

[512high]

20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great novel Ray Ray good luck

Well Ray I would be happy with those number and so would most, best of luck to you !, and your Dad would be proud of you, look forward to you posting more!

[thunderbolt]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

Good read. We don’t always agree, but I respect the transparency about your previous outlooks. I wish more seasonal forecasters would be as open about the results of their previous forecasts. It appears that we agree about the pacific, and where our forecasts differ is the polar domain. I’m solidly in the 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2018-2019 camp. Considering that you are forecasting nearly twice as much snow for my area as I am, I hope you are right.

Did you post your outlook ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, 512high said:

Well Ray I would be happy with those number and so would most, best of luck to you !, and your Dad would be proud of you, look forward to you posting more!

Phil, if I get porked again this year, I will be unhinged...I just can't take anymore of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/25/2023 at 12:51 AM, George001 said:

Factors:

El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. 

Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. 

Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. 

AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate.

Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. 

Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. 

What could go wrong? 

A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way. 

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Did you post your outlook ?

 

[weatherwiz]

As always, this was very thoroughly done and a great read. It makes me very happy and I feel a bit more confident that we are pretty much on the same page as to how this winter will evolve. 

I enjoyed your sections when you went into the Walker Cell/Hadley Cells into great depth and how you focused on the lack of gradient within the Pacific with retrospect to SST's and SLP. This is something that I noted as well but didn't go into great depths about, neither within my post or with analyzing.  

One big difference between what we've done with the breakdowns is you did EP, Basin Wide, and Modoki breakdowns. I did not have a basin wide category. 

Perhaps my favorite part of your outlook is the depth you go into regarding the background warming as a result of climate change and how that needs to be factored in. The RONI and EMI are something I'm going to further explore as well.

I will be re-reading your sections on solar/volcanic impacts on the stratosphere several times. This is a subject I have little knowledge in and you really break this down to where it's easy enough to develop a building block to learn from and further explore. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice job homie. 

[stadiumwave]

On 11/11/2023 at 9:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. 

That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

 

Great job! Great effort!

[Henry's Weather]

On 11/11/2023 at 10:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. 

That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

The sheer effort involved in putting this together is staggering. Always enjoy reading your work.

[Typhoon Tip]

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree 

[Henry's Weather]

Perhaps the schizo-in-residence position is already occupied, duly noted

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When someone elicits this response from you, it's bad lol...usually the other way around.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When some elicits this response from you, it's bad lol...usually the other way around.

I guess in the poster's defense,  he/she did say 'off-topic'    I guess you get what you get

[Go Kart Mozart]

I finally have had a chance to read the whole thing.  Great research Ray, very educational for us amateurs.  I hope you err on the low side!

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I finally have had a chance to read the whole thing.  Great research Ray, very educational for us amateurs.  I hope you err on the low side!

Yea, this is the draw back to launching into an endeavor of this magnitude.....its very informative, but it consumes pretty much a week of my life and its difficult for anyone to actually sit down and read.

I may go back an update it to include 1979-80 in the weak composite......haven't decided yet.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is the draw back to launching into an endeavor of this magnitude.....its very informative, but it consumes pretty much a week of my life and its difficult for anyone to actually sit down and read.

I may go back an update it to include 1979-80 in the weak composite......haven't decided yet.

I always go back and forth with this notion as well and you know what...learning requires time and patience. Time and patience is something which seems to be fading in today's society. Everyone is in such a rush and people want so much information but they don't want to take the time needed to fully digest information. People who are out there to truly learn and understand something are going to take the time to do so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I always go back and forth with this notion as well and you know what...learning requires time and patience. Time and patience is something which seems to be fading in today's society. Everyone is in such a rush and people want so much information but they don't want to take the time needed to fully digest information. People who are out there to truly learn and understand something are going to take the time to do so. 

Well, TBH, its just not practical to sit down and go through something like that word for word...I notice that reading it back to myself. I get like halfway through and I just want to surgically remove my eyeballs, but I think there is plenty of value to be had for those beave souls that do. Hopefully @CoastalWxand @ORH_wxmanget a chance to...maybe after Tday dinner before (or during) passing out.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, TBH, its just not practical to sit down and go through something like that word for word...I notice that reading it back to myself. I get like halfway through and I just want to surgically remove my eyeballs, but I think there is plenty of value to be had for those beave souls that do. Hopefully @CoastalWxand @ORH_wxmanget a chance to...maybe after Tday dinner before (or during) passing out.

I need like 45 min blocked off. Hopefully as this week quiets down I will. 

[Torch Tiger]

RGW

I only read half of the outlook, mostly 2nd half.  

For the snowfall #'s, IMO cut most of those #'s by 10-25%.  Not a big deal, but I don't see for ex: Albany 70"+.  I'd go 55-65".  Also, those Mid-Atlantic numbers seem a bit high. snowfall prediction is quite fickle esp. south so I could easily be wrong and very wrong, and of course one 12-18" whopper for DC/NYC satisfies some/most of their seasonal averages. 

Now watch ALB go 100+ 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I've updated to incorporate 1979-1980 into the weak intensity and Modoki composite graphics.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Update on December and what it may entail for the rest of the winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/december-preseason-impressions-appear.html

[Typhoon Tip]

Dude... this looks like a crude attempt at a STJ

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=truecolor

..time sensitive

I don't particularly like recent trends with the bulk ensemble means, from either the EPS of GEFs through the 20th.  Rumor has it the deep field astronomy has the cosmos expanding into cold fantasies - maybe, no opinion for now.