SchaumburgStormer Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Definitely looks like we switch right into more winter like temps early next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Stebo said: It has really been a boring stretch, no witch of november storm this year so far either. Maybe its a sign of the winter upcoming or maybe we are waiting until winter to get active. I would lean more toward the former than the latter but we will see down the line. Obviously I do not know if it will be a tame or active winter either, but i'm very big on November's patterns & temperatures being irrelevant to the coming Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Obviously I do not know if it will be a tame or active winter either, but i'm very big on November's patterns & temperatures being irrelevant to the coming Winter. I tend to agree like Nov./Dec. 1989 and Nov./Dec. 2000. What followed was meh!! There are times Nov. into Dec can give hints to teleconnections and such that work out OK but then other times not so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 14 hours ago, Stebo said: It has really been a boring stretch, no witch of november storm this year so far either. Maybe its a sign of the winter upcoming or maybe we are waiting until winter to get active. I would lean more toward the former than the latter but we will see down the line. I'm thinking we see this during winter. One common analog went this back-n-forth route (14-15). Someone posted on '89. It also did the back-n-forth. It made for some very dynamic systems too, if you were lucky enough to be in the right place. NMI in that case. SMI in the case of 14-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 6 hours ago, RogueWaves said: I'm thinking we see this during winter. One common analog went this back-n-forth route (14-15). Someone posted on '89. It also did the back-n-forth. It made for some very dynamic systems too, if you were lucky enough to be in the right place. NMI in that case. SMI in the case of 14-15. Almost any winter will have active and boring stretches. The question is, which dominates? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Almost any winter will have active and boring stretches. The question is, which dominates? Problem is most Ninos tend to be split flow which isn't terribly good for us, and the source region for clippers has been in a drought so those will be moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Almost any winter will have active and boring stretches. The question is, which dominates? Taking 14-15 again, Dec 14 was about as "non-winter" as you can get. Whereas Feb 15 was about as "severe winter" as it gets around SEMI. January, at least where I was in SWMI was a mixed bag but leaned colder with slightly AN snowfall, including a warned event. I do get your point ofc, everyone looking for snow is not excited for a pattern that is 60-70% CAD. Mild and dry is much better like our current pattern. Even if we did split it 50/50, I much prefer that the cold and moist periods last for weeks (Feb 15) vs just days. Exception to that rule being 07-08 which we lucked out with a mega-active pattern for SMI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Problem is most Ninos tend to be split flow which isn't terribly good for us, and the source region for clippers has been in a drought so those will be moisture starved. Agree. Wouldn't be counting on clippers, but moreso some hybrids as we had in the last Nino 18-19. Main player likely STJ this winter. IF we could manage to get in the crosshairs of both tracks, that would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 12z gfs trying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 thought it had that look, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 I believe the week after Thanksgiving has the better potential. But we'll let the models continue to sort things out as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Some real lake-effect potential behind the system next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Some real lake-effect potential behind the system next week. One of my favorite yearly traditions is going to cut down the Christmas tree the day after Thanksgiving. Would be extra fun if it was snowing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: One of my favorite yearly traditions is going to cut down the Christmas tree the day after Thanksgiving. Would be extra fun if it was snowing. Did that my first year in NWMI. Apparently the poor tree was in hibernation mode and coming into my warm living room was fooled into "false spring". The main leader grew 12" and was curling off my ceiling. After that, I never did it again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Some real lake-effect potential behind the system next week. Some wind and perhaps mood flakes for the rest of us outside the belts. A month later, and I might get lucky like last Christmas day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Did that my first year in NWMI. Apparently the poor tree was in hibernation mode and coming into my warm living room was fooled into "false spring". The main leader grew 12" and was curling off my ceiling. After that, I never did it again. Its a wonderful tradition. I could never not do it. They last a while when cut fresh (usually 5-6 weeks) but I've never had it grow. Then again, mine already touches the ceiling as soon as it goes up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Looks like a modest cooldown next week, then warming up significantly with possible torch conditions as we approach middle of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Big ridge moves in after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Looks like a modest cooldown next week, then warming up significantly with possible torch conditions as we approach middle of December. Looks like our cold source regions are on fire. I'm all for torching until xmas.... Also some support with the mjo charging forward into the warm phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2023 Author Share Posted November 16, 2023 Looks like a modest cooldown next week, then warming up significantly with possible torch conditions as we approach middle of December.just a modest cool down, eh? and only for next week you say, huh?gonna start off the season with two L’s. hate to see it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like our cold source regions are on fire. I'm all for torching until xmas.... Also some support with the mjo charging forward into the warm phases Hopefully it'll go low amp or into cod in those areas. Possible with SST Configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Big ridge moves in after day 10. As we know, those change as often as a 20 yo woman getting ready for a night on the Town. Odds favor a warmup around mid December. If you go total Nino = warm December then you're going to swear by runs like that one and declare it. Colder Nino December's generally had a mild prelude as well but, went back cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 You want to see a change compare the 00z GFS vs 06z GFS for next week. A day 4-7 forecast is completely different, you can't get any more different to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 You want to see a change compare the 00z GFS vs 06z GFS for next week. A day 4-7 forecast is completely different, you can't get any more different to be honest.The 12z continued on that theme, focus for a possible wintry threat shifted to Friday night-Saturday. The phasing the 00z run showed seemed like an unlikely evolution vs. most of the other guidance members.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/16/2023 at 7:41 AM, sbnwx85 said: Some real lake-effect potential behind the system next week. Annnnd it’s gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Annnnd it’s gone. Annnnd just wait for tomorrow's data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Stebo said: You want to see a change compare the 00z GFS vs 06z GFS for next week. A day 4-7 forecast is completely different, you can't get any more different to be honest. Yeah, and 12z continues it. Hopefully it’s a delayed but not denied situation. For several days/runs, models were showing highs in the 20s here on Thanksgiving Day, now they’re showing 45-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Euro 12Z holds on to the cold a bit. Not as extreme but respectable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The 12z continued on that theme, focus for a possible wintry threat shifted to Friday night-Saturday. The phasing the 00z run showed seemed like an unlikely evolution vs. most of the other guidance members. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yesterday, all 3 globals were going for the mega-phase (I guess Ukie wasn't up for the ride) though so it seems that they were seeing something favorable for that outcome. Are the models just bad in unison or are they wired to lean towards any potential high-impact scenario on behalf of Joe Public's safety? Legit asking if you have any intel in that regard since I have often wondered why they go that route many times and it almost always unravels in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/16/2023 at 11:58 AM, hardypalmguy said: Looks like a modest cooldown next week, then warming up significantly with possible torch conditions as we approach middle of December. Are the palms still unprotected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now