Fall 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

Solid agreement on deep toughing returning to the West Coast much of next week, as we see a bit of a shake up in the large scale pattern across North America and vicinity. This will lead to another period of very mild temperatures across the sub-forum.

[hardypalmguy]

Solid agreement on deep toughing returning to the West Coast much of next week, as we see a bit of a shake up in the large scale pattern across North America and vicinity. This will lead to another period of very mild temperatures across the sub-forum.

Doesn’t look nino


.

[cyclone77]

Maybe we'll roast through November and freeze our asses off in December.  Last year's pre-xmas arctic blast was something to behold.  Maybe we'll get another one of those. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Go figure I’ll be in Palm Springs CA from 11/18-11/24. Probably will be their first sub 70 high since last winter. 

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Go figure I’ll be in Palm Springs CA from 11/18-11/24. Probably will be their first sub 70 high since last winter. 

Aren't 60's shorts and t-shirt weather for someone from Minnesota at the end of November?

[OrdIowPitMsp]

9 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Aren't 60's shorts and t-shirt weather for someone from Minnesota at the end of November?

Yes definitely, it will be warmer then home for sure. It would be nice to have west coast ridging and a central conus trough while I’m out there like last December.

[CheeselandSkies]

18 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Solid agreement on deep toughing returning to the West Coast much of next week, as we see a bit of a shake up in the large scale pattern across North America and vicinity. This will lead to another period of very mild temperatures across the sub-forum.

Possibly some potential in there somewhere, as well?

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch, love it

[Frog Town]

On 11/8/2023 at 3:52 PM, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch, love it

More like love to hate it. 

[CheeselandSkies]

On 11/8/2023 at 11:24 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

Possibly some potential in there somewhere, as well?

SPC starting to hint at it but exactly when/where/ceiling all still quite uncertain at this point.

*Edit: Just noticed this is yesterday's 4-8, they're waiting quite a bit longer than usual to release today's.

Quote

   Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the
   potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast
   during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into
   next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a
   more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm
   track closer to the low-level moisture.

   ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023

 

[Frog Town]

Looking pretty cold, and potentially snowy, around these parts for Thanksgiving.  Pretty good ensemble support per today's guidance. 

[michsnowfreak]

28 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Looking pretty cold, and potentially snowy, around these parts for Thanksgiving.  Pretty good ensemble support per today's guidance. 

Thanksgiving would be a perfect time, but still a ways to go.

[IWXwx]

Here's something that you don't see everyday, above normal chances for precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook for the whole Untied States (including Alaska and Hawaii) except for the southern tip of Texas.  Oh, and and everyone east of the Rockies will be basking in above normal temps too.

[Frog Town]

 

Wa, wa, wa, wait a minute....It's the 300 hr 6Z GFS....Bank it

After further review, I believe I was possessed by JB.  

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, Frog Town said:

 

Wa, wa, wa, wait a minute....It's the 300 hr 6Z GFS....Bank it

After further review, I believe I was possessed by JB.  

Some day, peeps will be posting about "the ghost of JB". Like him or not, that's a legacy hard to deny. 

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, Frog Town said:

 

Wa, wa, wa, wait a minute....It's the 300 hr 6Z GFS....Bank it

After further review, I believe I was possessed by JB.  

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's. 

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's. 

Yup!  That was a very cold and snowy one here in NW Ohio.  

[roardog]

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's. 

2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. 

First time I ever drove in snow, my calc prof had an exam at 2pm that day otherwise I would have left sooner, complete nightmare of a drive from Mt Pleasant to the city.

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, roardog said:

2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. 

OMG yes! How did I not remember the 04 early storm. Was only 4-5" in Marshall but there were places up to a foot in SWMI. Another reason 04-05 rocked across SMI. (see my post in the winter thread for more hype). First event I remember in 07-08 was the mid-Dec system. Will have to check out whatever missed me earlier on.

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

OMG yes! How did I not remember the 04 early storm. Was only 4-5" in Marshall but there were places up to a foot in SWMI. Another reason 04-05 rocked across SMI. (see my post in the winter thread for more hype). First event I remember in 07-08 was the mid-Dec system. Will have to check out whatever missed me earlier on.

It could be 2008 I’m thinking of that had the thanksgiving Day snow. Without looking it up, I can’t remember which year it was.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

It could be 2008 I’m thinking of that had the thanksgiving Day snow. Without looking it up, I can’t remember which year it was.

Wasn't 07. As for T-day 08 that was on the 27th and there was the storm a few days later that straddled 11/30-12/1 (I was in downtown Chicago where it was mostly RN) which left a decent blanket of snowcover to start the rockin' month of December. Perhaps that's what you remembered. It was Sun/Mon of T-day weekend.

[Frog Town]

19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wasn't 07. As for T-day 08 that was on the 27th and there was the storm a few days later that straddled 11/30-12/1 (I was in downtown Chicago where it was mostly RN) which left a decent blanket of snowcover to start the rockin' month of December. Perhaps that's what you remembered. It was Sun/Mon of T-day weekend.

Was doing the Turkey Day Trot in Detroit in '07 and about 1-2 inches fell that day.  It was in Novi but i'm looking at a pic right now of it. 

[RogueWaves]

16 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Was doing the Turkey Day Trot in Detroit in '07 and about 1-2 inches fell that day.  It was in Novi but i'm looking at a pic right now of it. 

Yeah, I guess he did say "snow" not snowstorm. My bad. 

[RogueWaves]

Iiuc, '98-99 broke the dismal streak of low-snowfall winters for DTW during the '90s. Looking at the next (23) winters, on average we can hit dbl-digit snow depth roughly every 2.3 yrs:

And score a noticeably AN snow fall season approximately every 2.9 years:

Obviously, I left out the last pair of winters that failed to reach either category threshold. They can be put towards the next AN winter lol. What I'd like to think is that based on the averages we might be due a better winter. 

[roardog]

32 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, I guess he did say "snow" not snowstorm. My bad. 

I think the reason I remember it is because there was lake enhancement here which made it a little more memorable. It wasn’t anything too extreme but I remember a few inches. 

[Chicago Storm]

On 11/8/2023 at 11:24 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

Possibly some potential in there somewhere, as well?

Maybe down south at some point. Definitely not this upcoming week, though.

[CheeselandSkies]

20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Maybe down south at some point. Definitely not this upcoming week, though.

Yeah, a couple of those runs with the big western trough hinted at the potential for something more into the Midwest/Ohio Valley region in mid-November (something like 2002, 2005 or 2013) but nothing really came to fruition.

[cyclone77]

zzzzz

[Stebo]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

zzzzz

It has really been a boring stretch, no witch of november storm this year so far either. Maybe its a sign of the winter upcoming or maybe we are waiting until winter to get active. I would lean more toward the former than the latter but we will see down the line.