RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Per 18Z NAMs looks like the general 1.5 to 4 inches from Norfolk down to Kitty Hawk. Yes it's the NAM but it's something at least. Digital snow is almost as good as the real thing. 18z 3K NAM feels like the 1/23/2003 storm I mentioned the other day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Now that would be one heck of an event down here. Almost 3 years to the date January 21/22 of 2022 we had just about 8 in my neighborhood. Totals ranged from 6 in Moyock to 7-9 just south of there and north of Grandy. Stark difference just south of Grandy where it mixed with rain and there was basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z 3K NAM feels like the 1/23/2003 storm I mentioned the other day. A glimmer of hope haha Let's see if the other short range hi res models come around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 17 minutes ago, chris624wx said: A glimmer of hope haha Let's see if the other short range hi res models come around Icon looks better too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Icon looks better tooNice! And it was suppressed to hell yesterday! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18z GFS NW again for Tuesday late/Wednesday early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z GFS NW again for Tuesday late/Wednesday early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Keep coming NW! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Things are trending better for everyone without a doubt. Would love to see another 75 mile push Northwest to get the entire region. OBX almost looks like a lock to get at least a few inches out of this. Imagine 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Here is the latest GRAF model. You can see the Chesapeake Bay effect enhancement as it pulls away. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1881471384284545259 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I've been here since 2018 and have experienced Bay effect flurries two or three times. But they were ust flurries. Nothing ever organized. Locals speak of a few events where they had an inch or two from Bay streamers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Hearing 18z Euro is a nudge NW again but I don't have access to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Hearing 18z Euro is a nudge NW again but I don't have access to it. Just a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Just a smidge. Thanks RIC! Trends are definitely looking better down here. Hopefully continuing during the 00z runs! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 44 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I've been here since 2018 and have experienced Bay effect flurries two or three times. But they were ust flurries. Nothing ever organized. Locals speak of a few events where they had an inch or two from Bay streamers Yeah, that phenomenon usually doesn't last long enough to produce anything substantial, although there are rare occasions when more occurs. I'll have to do some research. Here is one case of it. https://www.weather.gov/akq/25Dec1999 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I don't pay much attention to Wakefield but they issued a WS watch for the counties along the coast south of Virginia Beach in NC in collaboration with Morehead City which covers the Dare County Outer Banks. 1-3 Currituck...2-5 inland Dare and all OBX beaches S of Corolla. I think that's really bullish. And they issued those after the 12 Z Suite. I see they are calling for up to 1 inch everywhere south of the peninsula and east of Suffolk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 45 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I don't pay much attention to Wakefield but they issued a WS watch for the counties along the coast south of Virginia Beach in NC in collaboration with Morehead City which covers the Dare County Outer Banks. 1-3 Currituck...2-5 inland Dare and all OBX beaches S of Corolla. I think that's really bullish. And they issued those after the 12 Z Suite. I see they are calling for up to 1 inch everywhere south of the peninsula and east of Suffolk. Yup, I did see the watches earlier and meant to mention it here, they may need to consider expanding them north of the border. The 00z 3K NAM had a notable increase in QPF, now 0.30-0.40" as far north as Hampton Roads and even 0.10" as far west as Williamsburg. With air temps in the low 20s, such ratios can easily get you a few inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 00z HRRR wasn't all too impressive, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 38 minutes ago, chris624wx said: 00z HRRR wasn't all too impressive, unfortunately 00Z GFS was lower than the 18z run, but still gets 1-2" up for Hampton Roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 06z HRRR definitely more NW than it was at 00z. An event for the entire Southside and edging up to the Peninsula 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Everything still moving NW overnight on ALL guidance. Peninsula now in the game for a few inches. Southside in good shape down thru NE NC. Plenty cold for once. Fun overrunning event shaping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Everything still moving NW overnight on ALL guidance. Peninsula now in the game for a few inches. Southside in good shape down thru NE NC. Plenty cold for once. Fun overrunning event shaping up. Looks very good for NE NC and southside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 One thing of note. Our temperature and dew point haven't plummeted like areas just west and north. I am at 24/16 with a ripping North wind gusting near 30. Dew points were supposed to be closer to lower single digits but that never happened... unless that dry air filters in here during the next six to eight hours. There won't be much to do to moisten up the column along the coast if this holds tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 12z 3K NAM just finished, still looking good for Hampton Roads and NE NC. Wakefield issued advisories for southside Hampton Roads early this morning, but then farther west a few hour ago to include Newport News, Hampton, Isle of Wight and Southampton. Also, interior NE NC counties were added. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Everything looks pretty consistent on bringing a 1-5 inch storm into the area from Williamsburg to the south and east. But you never know where these Northern fronto bands end up. There's been a nose of higher reflectivity showing up on most of the meso models streaking from Northeast North Carolina in through the peninsula that has to be watched. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 You also have to love that bay enhancement in Norfolk through chesapeake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Everything looks pretty consistent on bringing a 1-5 inch storm into the area from Williamsburg to the south and east. But you never know where these Northern fronto bands end up. There's been a nose of higher reflectivity showing up on most of the meso models streaking from Northeast North Carolina in through the peninsula that has to be watched. Yup, the 13z HRRR had a nice uptick, even from the 12z run, over southside and interior parts of NC. I think AKQ's expansion of the advisories was spot on, taken this into account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Seriously got whiplash from going from bone dry modeling to this in 24 hours. Glad I went and got some groceries yesterday before everyone starts rushing in today! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: You also have to love that bay enhancement in Norfolk through chesapeake. It's always cool to see that, especially when it benefits northern Virginia Beach during snowstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 24 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Seriously got whiplash from going from bone dry modeling to this in 24 hours. Glad I went and got some groceries yesterday before everyone starts rushing in today! Its possible the southside should have a warning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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