Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Stormpc]

23 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

12Z  nam much better for Currituck

Most globals and meso's are giving us a period of snow. Whether it's 3 hours or 6 it doesn't look like much but maybe a dusting to an inch. We need a good 50 to 75 MI bump to the northwest to get snow in through interior Northeast North Carolina and up the peninsula. Now if I were in Nags Head or Manteo I'd be pretty satisfied with the prospect of getting a solid inch or two.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

12Z  nam much better for Currituck

3k NAM has the snow reaching as far north as PHF, but it's very brief, maybe an hour or so at most before precip slides back to the SE. 

 

58 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Most globals and meso's are giving us a period of snow. Whether it's 3 hours or 6 it doesn't look like much but maybe a dusting to an inch. We need a good 50 to 75 MI bump to the northwest to get snow in through interior Northeast North Carolina and up the peninsula. Now if I were in Nags Head or Manteo I'd be pretty satisfied with the prospect of getting a solid inch or two.

12z GFS just came in, has a more expansive precip field. This is as far north and west as it gets. 

 

[ldub23]

Getting  better

[Stormpc]

24 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Getting  better

Yeah we need another appreciable bump in the next 24 hours. Still time. There's nothing even going on in the Deep South yet.

[Stormpc]

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

3k NAM has the snow reaching as far north as PHF, but it's very brief, maybe an hour or so at most before precip slides back to the SE

12z GFS just came in, has a more expansive precip field. This is as far north and west as it gets. 

Both made pretty good moves. Especially the GFS. Precip was 70 to 100 miles offshore this time yesterday.

[Stormpc]

Another subtle move NW over eastern North Carolina and Southeast VA. Little further expansive with the precept shield. Who knows how much of that would be eaten up by the dry air but at least it's not going the other way.

[chris624wx]

Another subtle move NW over eastern North Carolina and Southeast VA. Little further expansive with the precept shield. Who knows how much of that would be eaten up by the dry air but at least it's not going the other way.

At this point I'd celebrate the ground turning white with how tiring this has been to track

[Shad]

NAM 18z better yet

[Stormpc]

3k is almost a snow storm in southeast Virginia, Northeast North Carolina.

[Stormpc]

Per 18Z NAMs looks like the general 1.5 to 4 inches from Norfolk down to Kitty Hawk.

Yes it's the NAM but it's something at least. Digital snow is almost as good as the real thing.

[RIC Airport]

5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Per 18Z NAMs looks like the general 1.5 to 4 inches from Norfolk down to Kitty Hawk.

Yes it's the NAM but it's something at least. Digital snow is almost as good as the real thing.

18z 3K NAM feels like the 1/23/2003 storm I mentioned the other day. 

[Stormpc]

Now that would be one heck of an event down here.

Almost 3 years to the date January 21/22 of 2022 we had just about 8 in my neighborhood. Totals ranged from 6 in Moyock to 7-9 just south of there and north of Grandy. Stark difference just south of Grandy where it mixed with rain and there was basically nothing

[chris624wx]

18z 3K NAM feels like the 1/23/2003 storm I mentioned the other day. 

A glimmer of hope haha

Let's see if the other short range hi res models come around

[ldub23]

17 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

A glimmer of hope haha

Let's see if the other short range hi res models come around

Icon looks  better too

[chris624wx]

Icon looks  better too

Nice! And it was suppressed to hell yesterday!

[wasnow215]

18z GFS NW again for Tuesday late/Wednesday early

[RIC Airport]

9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

18z GFS NW again for Tuesday late/Wednesday early

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Keep coming NW! Lol

[Stormpc]

Things are trending better for everyone without a doubt. Would love to see another 75 mile push Northwest to get the entire region. OBX almost looks like a lock to get at least a few inches out of this. Imagine

[RIC Airport]

Here is the latest GRAF model. You can see the Chesapeake Bay effect enhancement as it pulls away.

 

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1881471384284545259

[Stormpc]

I've been here since 2018 and have experienced Bay effect flurries two or three times. But they were ust flurries. Nothing ever organized. Locals speak of a few events where they had an inch or two from Bay streamers

[chris624wx]

Hearing 18z Euro is a nudge NW again but I don't have access to it.

[RIC Airport]

6 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Hearing 18z Euro is a nudge NW again but I don't have access to it.

Just a smidge. 

[chris624wx]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

Just a smidge. 

Thanks RIC! Trends are definitely looking better down here. Hopefully continuing during the 00z runs!

[RIC Airport]

44 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I've been here since 2018 and have experienced Bay effect flurries two or three times. But they were ust flurries. Nothing ever organized. Locals speak of a few events where they had an inch or two from Bay streamers

Yeah, that phenomenon usually doesn't last long enough to produce anything substantial, although there are rare occasions when more occurs. I'll have to do some research.

Here is one case of it.

https://www.weather.gov/akq/25Dec1999

[Stormpc]

I don't pay much attention to Wakefield but they issued a WS watch for the counties along the coast south of Virginia Beach in NC in collaboration with Morehead City which covers the Dare County Outer Banks.

1-3 Currituck...2-5 inland Dare and all OBX beaches S of Corolla. I think that's really bullish. And they issued those after the 12 Z Suite.

I see they are calling for up to 1 inch everywhere south of the peninsula and east of Suffolk.