ldub23 Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:15 PM 26 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields. You may be the forum jackpot winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:20 PM 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: You may be the forum jackpot winner!! I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM 35 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board. I’d be shocked if we see any precip before next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:09 PM GFS came in way south. Not trying to be a downer but this midweek system just isn’t gonna happen. It’s Sunday and not a single model has it. Sorry ladies and gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM Thursday night/ Friday still has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 2 hours ago, RVAman said: It’s not going to snow here at all today lol. I don’t even expect to see a single flake per the HRRR and NAM. What a bummer of the last 24 hours. Oh well. This hobby is frustrating! It's much warmer all over, including to the north of us. Not sure those high end snowfall totals will verify around DCA (still 38°F), could be on the low end the way things are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 PM 53 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Thursday night/ Friday still has a chance. Seems worth monitoring. Euro and GFS have had it, although last couple runs of the Euro essentially took it away, keeping it well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Cold air chasing precip almost NEVER works out. Short range models were wayy to warm. That said, there's no way you can stick a fork in the midweek event at this time when these models can't even get it right 6 to 12 hours in advance. Fun times, win or lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Might be time to take a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM 12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Might be time to take a break. Time to wait till next Dec in NN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Yeah that looks bleak. Almost dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: It's much warmer all over, including to the north of us. Not sure those high end snowfall totals will verify around DCA (still 38°F), could be on the low end the way things are going. What a disaster. The cold air chasing precipitation never works around here. Outside of the Miller B to weeks ago, this great pattern has been garbage. Can't find a Miller A that can deliver ever around here. Back to drought watch it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Might be time to take a break. Yeah,I’m right with you. Pattern Change after next week and MJO going into warm phases, AO and NAO both positive . EPO not ideal. Not to be a downer but my guess is we don’t see any real threats until later this winter or towards March once everything reshuffles again. Maybe it reshuffles sooner. I actually thought we would score something this week with the cold push:/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:38 PM Euro ensembles are slightly better but that's grasping. Looks like anywhete not within 30 miles of the Atlantic north of the Albemarle is a big nothing. Still Bears watching for the immediate Virginia Beach down to the Outer Banks but they'd be fortunate to even get that inch. Might be a Nags Head chase for three or four inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Sunday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:57 PM Tim Pandajis at 13NewsNow posted the GRAF snowfall for Hampton Roads which is still robust so the light isn't completely extinguishedhttps://www.instagram.com/p/DFAv3GaM9yZ/?igsh=MTQ4dXZnYnltYWl6YQ== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted Sunday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:06 PM 8 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Tim Pandajis at 13NewsNow posted the GRAF snowfall for Hampton Roads which is still robust so the light isn't completely extinguishedhttps://www.instagram.com/p/DFAv3GaM9yZ/?igsh=MTQ4dXZnYnltYWl6YQ== They are in a tough spot our local Mets in Hampton roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM That midweek threat is null. Including the HR area. RIC said it best. It’s time to take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM May have convinced my wife to move to Yonkers NY next year. I may be in luck for snow for the next decade (alternative being Tampa FL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM 11 minutes ago, RVAman said: May have convinced my wife to move to Yonkers NY next year. I may be in luck for snow for the next decade (alternative being Tampa FL) Tampa was fun for a year.. moved back to Richmond, we are currently looking at Huntsville for our next move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM 2 hours ago, RVAman said: May have convinced my wife to move to Yonkers NY next year. I may be in luck for snow for the next decade (alternative being Tampa FL) 2 hours ago, Hyphnx said: Tampa was fun for a year.. moved back to Richmond, we are currently looking at Huntsville for our next move. This is also my last winter here, I'll be out by the the beginning of April. Had hoped to go out with a winter bang, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM 3 hours ago, EverythingisEverything said: They are in a tough spot our local Mets in Hampton roads. 3 hours ago, chris624wx said: Tim Pandajis at 13NewsNow posted the GRAF snowfall for Hampton Roads which is still robust so the light isn't completely extinguishedhttps://www.instagram.com/p/DFAv3GaM9yZ/?igsh=MTQ4dXZnYnltYWl6YQ== Tim Pandajis has been really active and transparent with the changing information. Wish more were like him. I remember when he worked in Richmond maybe 10-12 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted yesterday at 12:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:15 AM 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: This is also my last winter here, I'll be out by the the beginning of April. Had hoped to go out with a winter bang, but we'll see. Where ya headed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM LR GFS fantasy spitting out BS again…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 12:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:58 AM Disappointed that we didn’t see a single flake. Expected but still upsetting. Local Mets really need to stop hyping people up for views. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 01:04 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:04 AM 50 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said: Where ya headed to? I'm either back in NYC or possibly Chicago. I haven't decided yet. @Conway7305@wasnow215, @Stormpc, or @chris624wxwill have to take the reins for this thread next winter. Although I could participate from afar as I did in the past, I still have a soft spot for winter weather in this area having lived in Richmond and HR at different times in my life. 39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: LR GFS fantasy spitting out BS again…lol I'm definitely taking a break, at least for the next few days. I may just check once or twice a day. I need to get caught up on a lot, and tracking has been too much wasted effort. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted yesterday at 02:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:16 AM Guess I need to get subscription to WeatherBell then lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted yesterday at 04:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:22 AM 00z GFS OTS with the late week low unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 hours ago, chris624wx said: Guess I need to get subscription to WeatherBell then lol I paid monthly for a few months last winter and then got an annual this summer. I won't do that again because I didn't start using it routinely until November. I am not here much in the summer, but I'll become active if there is a hurricane threat. Many people track summer storms, but to me, they are too routine and not as interesting. 39 minutes ago, chris624wx said: 00z GFS OTS with the late week low unfortunately I guess I'll cherish the remains of the small piles of dirty snow in parking lots and along sidewalks during this arctic outbreak. The leftover snow in my backyard took a beating yesterday as about 80% of what lasted for the last 1.5 weeks melted. As of this morning, only a tiny amount remained, but that melted today. Seems like our next possible threat is not until around 1/30 - 2/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I paid monthly for a few months last winter and then got an annual this summer. I won't do that again because I didn't start using it routinely until November. I am not here much in the summer, but I'll become active if there is a hurricane threat. Many people track summer storms, but to me, they are too routine and not as interesting. I guess I'll cherish the remains of the small piles of dirty snow in parking lots and along sidewalks during this arctic outbreak. The leftover snow in my backyard took a beating yesterday as about 80% of what lasted for the last 1.5 weeks melted. As of this morning, only a tiny amount remained, but that melted today. Seems like our next possible threat is not until around 1/30 - 2/1. I saw that on 0z for 1/30, everything looks good that far out….lol We also lost all the snow we had today in our backyard . At least the ponds will freeze up somewhat next 3-4 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 12Z nam much better for Currituck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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