Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

56 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Can someone please  post the individual 12z  GEFS snow total maps when they are available? 

The dark blue has made it as far SE as RIC. I'll post them momentarily when they finish.

 

 

[tigersaint11]

The trend is our friend 

[RIC Airport]

Here are the individuals thru 18z Monday, @Conway7305.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Chances for at least one inch of snow around Richmond keeps going up, now at around 40%. Hopefully this trend continues. 

[RIC Airport]

While we await the Euro, major 850mb and surface temperature concerns remain if you are south and east a line from Caroline to Lousia to Buckingham. 

The ensemble mean would suggest 850s MB temperatures at RIC goes from 0°C at 10am Saturday to 1°C by 1pm and stays there until about 4am Sunday when it goes back to 0°C before finally reaching -1°C by 10am.

 

Surface temperatures around Richmond are in the upper 30s to around 40°F the whole time. This is a mean, so obviously, there are colder members. We need to trend both of these colder.

 

From my glean of the 12z GFS ensembles, the best chance for snow in Richmond is after the low passes and gets to our east on the back side. Whether it sticks is the big question.

[RIC Airport]

Well, the 12Z Euro just erased a lot of hope. 

 

[Rhino16]

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

[wasnow215]

41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow.

 

ALSO-EPS a little better

[RIC Airport]

19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow.

55 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

Here is the EPS mean and 50 members thru 18z January 8th. I'll post the charts once the entire run is complete. 

 

[RIC Airport]

48 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

ALSO-EPS a little better

I looked closer at the EPS, and similar to the GEFS, major 850mb and surface temperature concerns remain. This is the mean of all members. 

The Euro ensemble mean 850 MB temperature at RIC go from 0°C at 7am Saturday to 2°C by 1pm and rise to 4°C by 7pm. Even as late as 1am Sunday, the 850mb temp only drops to 2°C before finally falling to -1°C by 7am.

Meanwhile, surface temps are 31°F at 7am Saturday as the precip approaches, then rise to 40°F by 1pm and peak at 42°F by 7pm. Surface temps drop to 35°F by 7am; by then, 850s are back below 0°C. So, any remaining precip should be frozen. The problem is most of the precip will be gone by then.

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the EPS snowfall output from each of the 50 members for Richmond, @Rhino16, @wasnow215, @tigersaint11, @Conway7305, @SoCoWx.

And for fun, since E-10 was the snowiest dropping 11" at RIC, I pulled it to see how it came to its solution.  And even that member suggests RIC will go from rain and only to heavy snow once the low passes to our east and temperatures drop. Hopefully it's THE member that will be correct. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, Wakefield just sent the 2023 climate summary. Warm and snowless. 

 

[ldub23]

Even with this  low it  never really  gets  cold after  it  leaves. I think SEVA is  out  of the  game  this winter. Hopefully a storm will have the  R/S line east  of  RIC in JAN/FEB.

 

2 days  later  on jan 10 and  its  in the  60's. Just  no cold air

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JB  posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds  me  of the time texas got  brutal cold and  it  never  came east.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

42 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB  posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds  me  of the time texas got  brutal cold and  it  never  came east.

That was only a snap shot in time. The cold pushes east there after.

[wasnow215]

18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more.

[RIC Airport]

 

15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more.

The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold.

 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold.

 

Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no?

[RIC Airport]

It also doesnt help that the surface low is practically tracking over SE VA and into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no?

The models may need to get some upper air features, such as the position/strength of the high, the wave that moves to our S and E on the 4th, which eventually sets up as a 50/50 low. These need to be timed correctly and could be misplaced incorrectly in this run, so the rain/snow line fluctuates back and forth with each model run. We need to wait until the shortwaves get better sampling. But, right now, I urge caution against getting too excited.

Another concern are the warm SSTs, we had a warm year and a mild fall. Perhaps in another 3-4 weeks, we wouldn't have this problem with this surge of warmth coming from our SE when ocean temperatures are a bit colder....hopefully. 

[Conway7305]

Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps 

[Conway7305]

Not  terrible look On GFS Ensembles 

 

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps 

[Conway7305]

Just now, RIC Airport said:

 there is still some big hitters in there 

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

 there is still some big hitters in there 

Remember it’s not been updated yet from what I can tell, so it might not have the greatest depiction of things. The NAEFS was upgraded recently, but I don’t know what that is…

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

 

Here are the charts from the 18Z GEFS for RIC and ORF. Although there are signals around the 14th, the 1/6 to 1/7 event is the best snow opportunity. At hour 384, this troughing tendency is still out west, so the bulk of the cold only occasionally glances eastward. There are ways to work with this and we can still get chances, just makes things harder. But, can certainly change though. 

The EPS, on the other hand, was a much better look at the end of the run.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 18z Euro Ensembles only goes out to hour 144 (Sunday at 1pm). Some encouraging signs, but still way too many misses, @Conway7305, @wasnow215

[Stormpc]

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

[RIC Airport]

17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

Nice, definitely an accomplishment!!! 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS was awful. Like I said in an earlier post today, we'll have these fluctuations with the rain/snow line and track of the low.  

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

00Z GEFS