wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I hear what you're saying and know you're seeking affirmation. I'm just providing information. I would not forecast 2-4" for Richmond Tuesday night until there is better agreement with the guidance. Many variables remain in play to say that confidently. The Canadian, although we do use it as a tool, it doesn't have a good track record over the Euro and GFS for snowstorms in our area. I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is. I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4. And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, here is the 3K NAM. Getting an inch around Richmond will be challenging, although some areas just north and west of the city have the best chance. I pointed out in a post a couple of days ago that the problem is that we only have a 2-3 hour window with good enough rates and a cold enough column for accumulations. 3K NAM has about a 0.24"-0.26" of QPF across metro Richmond for Sunday's event. We waste HALF of our QPF before temperatures at the surface and at 850mb drop below freezing. 3K NAM doesn't have surface temperature reaching freezing until 3-5 pm (north to south) in the Richmond metro area. If you look at the map below, OFP, FCI, and RIC are still above freezing at 2 pm. More importantly, even as late as 4 pm, there is still warmer air at 850mb bisecting the metro area, so even if it's cold at the surface, any precip will be mixing and not accumulating at that time. 3K NAM does not column the column entirely until 5 pm; by that time, 0.12" of the 0.17" of QPF has already fallen. So, MOST places would probably expect a dusting to half an inch at best. Obviously, if you live north of Richmond in places like Hanover, where it gets colder faster, you can get more. Thank you! Let's go for 1"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is. I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4. And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow By no means is the Tuesday night Wednesday storm locked in, in any direction. I agree with you there. You are right saying in the mid range things sometimes get skewed a bit then come back the last 48 hours. Hopefully we see a more robust system take shape over the South that runs into the Arctic air mass but right now it's looking more like a southern slider where places just along the coast get some measurable snow but 40 miles inland it's nothing. I reserve my right to change everything I just stated at about 1:15 p.m. today. Fun times!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is. I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4. And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow I agree and hope we get 2-4. That would be amazing. It’s trending the wrong way now but maybe it will come back. Euro about to start running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don’t like how tomorrow’s storm and Tuesday night storm look. Warm air probably wins out tomorrow. I am hoping next Friday turns into the bigger threat- weekend rule and cold air retreating/ pattern change storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Does anyone know how the 12z GEFS looks compared to the OP for the midweek storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 12z Euro is not as good as the 6z or 00z run, but still gets snow up into our area, especially Hampton Roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Here is the kuchera maps, covers both events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Where do I sign for this?? Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though. As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations. At least it's sort of held serve. That 8.3 is right on top of me... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm east of the 7.5 and south of the 7.2 in Virginia Beach... we'll take it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Where do I sign for this?? Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though. As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations. At least it's sort of held serve. That 8.3 is right on top of me... I'll be rooting for you, @Stormpc. You're the hardest in our region to get any snow. But, the way things are looking the 1/23/2003 storm seems to be a good analog. Cape Hatteras received 12" from that. Time will tell, still time for shifting of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Im actually working in VA Beach Wednesday overnight so maybe I can catch some of the coastal snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Im actually working in VA Beach Wednesday overnight so maybe I can catch some of the coastal snows. I might have to consider taking a trip as well if trends keep up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road. DCA or ORF are the only places that seems to get good storms. Saw this in the 2021-22 winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Where do I sign for this?? Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though. As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations. At least it's sort of held serve. That 8.3 is right on top of me... Good luck to those south and east of here. Much rather you get snow than DC. NN a whiff on both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 EPS for the midweek event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 39 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: I don’t like how tomorrow’s storm and Tuesday night storm look. Warm air probably wins out tomorrow. I am hoping next Friday turns into the bigger threat- weekend rule and cold air retreating/ pattern change storm. yes I agree we are an inch of snow at best tomorrow even though the European model has 850 temps below 32 at 2 o'clock if I'm reading it right maybe temps crash and we can get around an inch for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here is the kuchera maps, covers both events. 50 miles north Northwest would be nice snow for everybody and get even more for our friends south and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I see a decent amount of people are on here right now so I wanna take this time to give a shout out to @RIC Airport! Like many of us he has a very busy life but he does such a great job with maps and keeping us in the know with ensembles and everything! Thank you sir! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvateach Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road. Some Black Pelican right now sounds great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Rvateach said: Some Black Pelican right now sounds great That place on the beach is great!! Good spot if you need to go back over to the mainland to chase if there's a mix. Close to the bridge. That would be an awesome place to ride out a rare winter storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 55 minutes ago, Stormpc said: That place on the beach is great!! Good spot if you need to go back over to the mainland to chase if there's a mix. Close to the bridge. That would be an awesome place to ride out a rare winter storm I rode out Idalia in there Labor Day Weekend of 2023, wind enough for them to have the fireplaces going, knocked out internet for them and other systems, had to pay cash, no working ATM in the area, so had to be mindful of our drinking tab. Definitely a great place to ride out a storm. I would love to do a winter storm there and whenever I watch the scene in the bar of The Perfect Storm where they are all gathered waiting for news, I think of that trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, JB Fins said: I rode out Idalia in there Labor Day Weekend of 2023, wind enough for them to have the fireplaces going, knocked out internet for them and other systems, had to pay cash, no working ATM in the area, so had to be mindful of our drinking tab. Definitely a great place to ride out a storm. I would love to do a winter storm there and whenever I watch the scene in the bar of The Perfect Storm where they are all gathered waiting for news, I think of that trip. Such a great movie reference and great context! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. Gives us a decent chance for decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, ldub23 said: Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome It’s not even February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 No way I'm cutting you guys out down there for Tuesday/Wednesday. Stick to the ensembles til tomorrow night for all the models. And not just because they're not showing and such that I'm saying that- it's showing good snow for Friday and I don't buy that on one model yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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