Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

NAM does show Mid week storm precip shield further NW even though it only goes out to 84.  FWIW

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

 

 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Why not? It was pretty solid with the last event within 24 hours. Not being sarcastic.

I'm trying to find a better snow map than tropical tidbits can someone put one on that has actual numbers on it please? Including QPF from the NAM 3K 12z

[chris624wx]

12z GFS again suppressed for the midweek. Hopefully it'll come back in the next day or so

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

We have the European and the ensembles for Tuesday night and into Wednesday as well as the Canadian and the UKmet I think. I would be surprised if Richmond, didn't get at least 3 inches from Tuesday nights into Wednesday and south n east more.

I'd like to see the GFS and Euro come into better agreement. The 00z Euro was a big step in the right direction, especially for Hampton Roads and NE NC. The 6z run was a hair east of the 00z run. 

If we are relying on the Canadian or UkMet, we are in trouble. I just saw that the 12z Canadian backed off significantly. 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I'd like to see the GFS and Euro come into better agreement. The 00z Euro was a big step in the right direction, especially for Hampton Roads and NE NC. The 6z run was a hair east of the 00z run. 

If we are relying on the Canadian or UkMet, we are in trouble that the 12z Canadian backed off significantly. 

I think the Canadian and the European model are actually coming together. And I think like what usually happens the American models will follow and we will see 2 to 4 inches of very very powdery snow especially the eastern sections of our area and our snow starved southeastern folks which are very very due for a few inches of snow without mixing

[RIC Airport]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I think the Canadian and the European model are actually coming together. And I think like what usually happens the American models will follow and we will see 2 to 4 inches of very very powdery snow especially the eastern sections of our area and our snow starved southeastern folks which are very very due for a few inches of snow without mixing

I hear what you're saying and know you're seeking affirmation. I'm just providing information. I would not forecast 2-4" for Richmond Tuesday night until there is better agreement with the guidance. Many variables remain in play to say that confidently. The Canadian, although we do use it as a tool, it doesn't have a good track record over the Euro and GFS for snowstorms in our area. 

[Stormpc]

It's slipping away here in the mid-range. At least for anything away from the coast in our region. Next EURO will be telling. CMC is back to reality. GFS almost a big nothing.  

[Conway7305]

Yep, next week is looking dry  with maybe a potential threat next Friday.  CMC sliding away to GFS on storm #2.  I think we may have to wait for the next pattern change/ flip if nothing happens next Friday.  MJO going into warm phases and NAO and AO both positive.  

Maybe the 12z Euro surprises but I doubt it. 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

I'm trying to find a better snow map than tropical tidbits can someone put one on that has actual numbers on it please? Including QPF from the NAM 3K 12z

 

Also, here is the 3K NAM. Getting an inch around Richmond will be challenging, although some areas just north and west of the city have the best chance. I pointed out in a post a couple of days ago that the problem is that we only have a 2-3 hour window with good enough rates and a cold enough column for accumulations.

 

3K NAM has about a 0.24"-0.26" of QPF across metro Richmond for Sunday's event.

 

 

We waste HALF of our QPF before temperatures at the surface and at 850mb drop below freezing. 3K NAM doesn't have surface temperature reaching freezing until 3-5 pm (north to south) in the Richmond metro area. If you look at the map below, OFP, FCI, and RIC are still above freezing at 2 pm.

 

 

More importantly, even as late as 4 pm, there is still warmer air at 850mb bisecting the metro area, so even if it's cold at the surface, any precip will be mixing and not accumulating at that time.

 

 

3K NAM does not cool the column entirely until 5 pm; by that time, 0.12" - 0.17" of the 0.24-0.26" total QPF has already fallen. 

 

 

So, MOST places would probably expect a dusting to half an inch at best. Obviously, if you live north of Richmond in places like Hanover, where it gets colder faster, you can get more.

 

 

[wasnow215]

18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I hear what you're saying and know you're seeking affirmation. I'm just providing information. I would not forecast 2-4" for Richmond Tuesday night until there is better agreement with the guidance. Many variables remain in play to say that confidently. The Canadian, although we do use it as a tool, it doesn't have a good track record over the Euro and GFS for snowstorms in our area. 

I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. 
 

It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. 
 

They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday

Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is.

 

I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4.

And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

Also, here is the 3K NAM. Getting an inch around Richmond will be challenging, although some areas just north and west of the city have the best chance. I pointed out in a post a couple of days ago that the problem is that we only have a 2-3 hour window with good enough rates and a cold enough column for accumulations.

 

3K NAM has about a 0.24"-0.26" of QPF across metro Richmond for Sunday's event.

 

 

We waste HALF of our QPF before temperatures at the surface and at 850mb drop below freezing. 3K NAM doesn't have surface temperature reaching freezing until 3-5 pm (north to south) in the Richmond metro area. If you look at the map below, OFP, FCI, and RIC are still above freezing at 2 pm.

 

 

More importantly, even as late as 4 pm, there is still warmer air at 850mb bisecting the metro area, so even if it's cold at the surface, any precip will be mixing and not accumulating at that time.

 

 

3K NAM does not column the column entirely until 5 pm; by that time, 0.12" of the 0.17" of QPF has already fallen. 

 

 

So, MOST places would probably expect a dusting to half an inch at best. Obviously, if you live north of Richmond in places like Hanover, where it gets colder faster, you can get more.

 

 

Thank you! Let's go for 1"!

[Stormpc]

10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. 
 

It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. 
 

They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday

Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is.

 

I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4.

And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow 

By no means is the Tuesday night Wednesday storm locked in, in any direction. I agree with you there. You are right saying in the mid range things sometimes get skewed a bit then come back the last 48 hours. Hopefully we see a more robust system take shape over the South that runs into the Arctic air mass but right now it's looking more like a southern slider where places just along the coast get some measurable snow but 40 miles inland it's nothing.

 

I reserve my right to change everything I just stated at about 1:15 p.m. today. Fun times!!

[Conway7305]

13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I'm not looking for affirmation on this I'm just giving you my prediction especially for south and east of us. I believe Richmond Metro will see 2 inches of snow Tuesday Wednesday and I believe eastern parts Eastern Hanover etc. down into Hampton roads etc. will see 4 inches of snow. 
 

It's not a pat on the back at all it's just a reminder that everybody gave up pretty early or were giving up on the snow that we got Sunday, a week ago today. 
 

They trended a little bit further away at 6Z but the euro and CMC still has what I'm talking about for Tuesday night into Wednesday

Not talking about a major storm because that's not what 2 to 4 inches is.

 

I will say this it's just as silly if not more for people to be saying "it's not happening" than it is for me to say 2 to 4.

And then I think you see the GFS and then the short term models come closer to that, by tomorrow 18z or 0z late tomorrow 

I agree and hope we get 2-4.  That would be amazing.  It’s trending the wrong way now but maybe it will come back. Euro about to start running.   

[mikeeng92]

I don’t like how tomorrow’s storm and Tuesday night storm look. Warm air probably wins out tomorrow.

 

I am hoping next Friday turns into the bigger threat- weekend rule and cold air retreating/ pattern change storm. 

[chris624wx]

Does anyone know how the 12z GEFS looks compared to the OP for the midweek storm?

[RIC Airport]

12z Euro is not as good as the 6z or 00z run, but still gets snow up into our area, especially Hampton Roads. 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the kuchera maps, covers both events.

[Stormpc]

Where do I sign for this??

Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though.

As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations.

At least it's sort of held serve.

That 8.3 is right on top of me...

[VARTV]

I'm east of the 7.5 and south of the 7.2 in Virginia Beach... we'll take it!

[RIC Airport]

3 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Where do I sign for this??

Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though.

As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations.

At least it's sort of held serve.

That 8.3 is right on top of me...

I'll be rooting for you, @Stormpc. You're the hardest in our region to get any snow. But, the way things are looking the 1/23/2003 storm seems to be a good analog. Cape Hatteras received 12" from that. Time will tell, still time for shifting of the models.

 

[Conway7305]

Im actually working in VA Beach Wednesday overnight   so maybe I can catch some of the coastal snows. 

[RIC Airport]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Im actually working in VA Beach Wednesday overnight   so maybe I can catch some of the coastal snows. 

I might have to consider taking a trip as well if trends keep up. 

[JB Fins]

Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road.

[RIC Airport]

2 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road.

DCA or ORF are the only places that seems to get good storms. Saw this in the 2021-22 winter. 

[ldub23]

24 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Where do I sign for this??

Sorry that's a total imby thought. The potential is still there for everyone to eat. Goal posts are narrowing though.

As I said a day or two earlier, parts of the Richmond area might be in between both events and end up with essentially nothing. That's not as easy to swallow as it is for folks down my way where we usually get nothing and have zero expectations.

At least it's sort of held serve.

That 8.3 is right on top of me...

Good luck to those south and east  of  here. Much rather you get snow than DC. NN a whiff  on both

[RIC Airport]

EPS for the midweek event.

[wasnow215]

39 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

I don’t like how tomorrow’s storm and Tuesday night storm look. Warm air probably wins out tomorrow.

 

I am hoping next Friday turns into the bigger threat- weekend rule and cold air retreating/ pattern change storm. 

yes I agree we are an inch of snow at best tomorrow even though the European model has 850 temps below 32 at 2 o'clock if I'm reading it right maybe temps crash and we can get around an inch for everybody

[wasnow215]

40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is the kuchera maps, covers both events.

50 miles north Northwest would be nice snow for everybody and get even more for our friends south and east

[wasnow215]

I see a decent amount of people are on here right now so I wanna take this time to give a shout out to @RIC Airport! Like many of us he has a very busy life but he does such a great job with maps and keeping us in the know with ensembles and everything! Thank you sir!

[Rvateach]

21 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Man, I wish I had time for a chase, would go down and park my ass in Lucky 12 or maybe Black Pelican and watch the snow cover the beach road.

Some Black Pelican right now sounds great