Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 0z Euro looked better for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Anybody up? Nice trend NW on precip shield. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 0z Euro looked better for us Ends up with a couple inches for many for this run. Trending better-and it's less than 4 days away! Let's see if the trends continue. Also 850 temps are 10-15 below, so it'll be pure powder with probably 15-1 ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Anybody up? Nice trend NW on precip shield. 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Ends up with a couple inches for many for this run. Trending better-and it's less than 4 days away! Let's see if the trends continue. Also 850 temps are 10-15 below, so it'll be pure powder with probably 15-1 ratios. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I can’t tell if the storm shifted NW or precip field just expanded more NW. Regardless , a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Caving to the CMC??? lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Just looked at base reflectivity also and it looks like it only snows from like 9p Tue to 3a Wed! It would be nice to get another 50 mile trend NW. Beaches and our SE Va friends on here gonna do real well with this I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, wasnow215 said: Just looked at base reflectivity also and it looks like it only snows from like 9p Tue to 3a Wed! It would be nice to get another 50 mile trend NW Still plenty of time. 5 more days to trend more NW hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just wanted to post the maps, had a long day...literally falling asleep now. I'll take a deeper look late tomorrow morning. Looks like placement of the low was farther north and west from 18z and 12z. Hope later runs remain favorable would be awesome to get snow in the teens. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time. 5 more days to trend more NW hopefully. Really just 4 now which to me means models beginning to converge at least a little. That one shot people posting at least moderate snow here on the Euro was at hour 102! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 More to come. Good night! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS said no sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 35 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS said no sir. We have the European and the ensembles for Tuesday night and into Wednesday as well as the Canadian and the UKmet I think. I would be surprised if Richmond, didn't get at least 3 inches from Tuesday nights into Wednesday and south n east more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 EURO and GFS moved in opposite directions. CMC held steady. ICON moved well NW. All are now onshore with precip. 4 days out now. In that mid-range where some consensus appears to be happening. GFS was a bit alarming tho. Overall still like the trends and love it the EURO is onboard. Tomorrow we'll be looking at meso's. The Sunday deal looks dead to me from RIC and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: EURO and GFS moved in opposite directions. CMC held steady. ICON moved well NW. All are now onshore with precip. 4 days out now. In that mid-range where some consensus appears to be happening. GFS was a bit alarming tho. Overall still like the trends and love it the EURO is onboard. Tomorrow we'll be looking at meso's. The Sunday deal looks dead to me from RIC and SE. it won't be a big deal Sunday but I would be surprised if most places didn't see an inch of snow area wide with some may be getting a tiny bit more and some getting a little bit less. In the evening when the sun goes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: it won't be a big deal Sunday but I would be surprised if most places didn't see an inch of snow area wide with some may be getting a tiny bit more and some getting a little bit less. In the evening when the sun goes down I hope you're right. It certainly a Race Against Time with cold air versus precipitation. The cut off still appears Fredericksburg and North for anything appreciable. And that's being squeezed for the north and west as it appears. Hopefully things Trend back today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like Tuesday Wednesday storm is going to be a southern slider, I still hope the CMC is still right but it’s going against all other guidance. Models trending in the wrong direction this am . Sunday storm will hopefully give us an inch so we can see some white for a few days being so cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Looks like Tuesday Wednesday storm is going to be a southern slider, I still hope the CMC is still right but it’s going against all other guidance. Models trending in the wrong direction this am . Sunday storm will hopefully give us an inch so we can see some white for a few days being so cold. Euro and its ensembles came NW also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm gonna go ahead and hug the 3k Nam for tomorrow haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I'm gonna go ahead and hug the 3k Nam for tomorrow haha Why not? It was pretty solid with the last event within 24 hours. Not being sarcastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM does show Mid week storm precip shield further NW even though it only goes out to 84. FWIW https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Why not? It was pretty solid with the last event within 24 hours. Not being sarcastic. I'm trying to find a better snow map than tropical tidbits can someone put one on that has actual numbers on it please? Including QPF from the NAM 3K 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12z GFS again suppressed for the midweek. Hopefully it'll come back in the next day or so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, wasnow215 said: We have the European and the ensembles for Tuesday night and into Wednesday as well as the Canadian and the UKmet I think. I would be surprised if Richmond, didn't get at least 3 inches from Tuesday nights into Wednesday and south n east more. I'd like to see the GFS and Euro come into better agreement. The 00z Euro was a big step in the right direction, especially for Hampton Roads and NE NC. The 6z run was a hair east of the 00z run. If we are relying on the Canadian or UkMet, we are in trouble. I just saw that the 12z Canadian backed off significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I'd like to see the GFS and Euro come into better agreement. The 00z Euro was a big step in the right direction, especially for Hampton Roads and NE NC. The 6z run was a hair east of the 00z run. If we are relying on the Canadian or UkMet, we are in trouble that the 12z Canadian backed off significantly. I think the Canadian and the European model are actually coming together. And I think like what usually happens the American models will follow and we will see 2 to 4 inches of very very powdery snow especially the eastern sections of our area and our snow starved southeastern folks which are very very due for a few inches of snow without mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think the Canadian and the European model are actually coming together. And I think like what usually happens the American models will follow and we will see 2 to 4 inches of very very powdery snow especially the eastern sections of our area and our snow starved southeastern folks which are very very due for a few inches of snow without mixing I hear what you're saying and know you're seeking affirmation. I'm just providing information. I would not forecast 2-4" for Richmond Tuesday night until there is better agreement with the guidance. Many variables remain in play to say that confidently. The Canadian, although we do use it as a tool, it doesn't have a good track record over the Euro and GFS for snowstorms in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's slipping away here in the mid-range. At least for anything away from the coast in our region. Next EURO will be telling. CMC is back to reality. GFS almost a big nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yep, next week is looking dry with maybe a potential threat next Friday. CMC sliding away to GFS on storm #2. I think we may have to wait for the next pattern change/ flip if nothing happens next Friday. MJO going into warm phases and NAO and AO both positive. Maybe the 12z Euro surprises but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: I'm trying to find a better snow map than tropical tidbits can someone put one on that has actual numbers on it please? Including QPF from the NAM 3K 12z Also, here is the 3K NAM. Getting an inch around Richmond will be challenging, although some areas just north and west of the city have the best chance. I pointed out in a post a couple of days ago that the problem is that we only have a 2-3 hour window with good enough rates and a cold enough column for accumulations. 3K NAM has about a 0.24"-0.26" of QPF across metro Richmond for Sunday's event. We waste HALF of our QPF before temperatures at the surface and at 850mb drop below freezing. 3K NAM doesn't have surface temperature reaching freezing until 3-5 pm (north to south) in the Richmond metro area. If you look at the map below, OFP, FCI, and RIC are still above freezing at 2 pm. More importantly, even as late as 4 pm, there is still warmer air at 850mb bisecting the metro area, so even if it's cold at the surface, any precip will be mixing and not accumulating at that time. 3K NAM does not cool the column entirely until 5 pm; by that time, 0.12" - 0.17" of the 0.24-0.26" total QPF has already fallen. So, MOST places would probably expect a dusting to half an inch at best. Obviously, if you live north of Richmond in places like Hanover, where it gets colder faster, you can get more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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