wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Still time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 40 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Well that's no fun! Sigh... 40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Still time It all depends on where the precip bands are set up. I think the issue with us is the coldest air not arriving in time. This run is warmer; we are 37-40°F when the precip starts around 7 am, instead of 33-34°F that earlier runs had. So, we suffer because we spend too much time trying to cool the atmosphere down to the surface, and by then, most of the precipitation is over, thus lower snow accumulations.. GFS didn't have RIC reach freezing until 20z Sunday (3PM), and there is still a warm layer aloft that bisects the Richmond metro area at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I need what the Canadian is advertising. 16inches in Currituck looks about right. That'll do. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! I would take a long stroll outside, if this happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 37 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. The lows on the GFS are getting progressively warmer and warmer. Might have to watch out for tornados with the last one https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011612&fh=312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The lows on the GFS are getting progressively warmer and warmer. Might have to watch out for tornados with the last one https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011612&fh=312 There is indication the pattern will break down toward the end of the month. The question is, will there be a reload later on? But, that's so far out, will need to look at teleconnections and ensembles. I haven't paid much attention to the weeklies this year because of how they performed last year, but the last I saw is that we were on the cooler side of things well into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! 12z Euro breaking hearts for Sunday as well as next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. Better than it being north of me and id rather see NC get snow than DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. NW trend c'mon (but not too much haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, chris624wx said: NW trend c'mon (but not too much haha) It also has a storm affecting the whole east coast at the end of the run. Wasn't ideal for us, but perhaps it signals the infamous big storm as the pattern begins the collapse? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Yes that mid-week storm to the South is good for us folks in Hampton Roads and Northeast North carolina. We want it right there right now actually. Selfishly I would cash that check as well as advertised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 28 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. Do you have the EPS table for ORF, @RIC Airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 FWIW, the 18Z NAM is within range for the Sunday threat and has the axis of snows over most of our region of the state, except for extreme SE VA. Pretty far out in rage for the NAM, but an interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. It looks like half ensembles have next weeks storms tracking either south or north of us. A few in between give us nice hits like e18 lol…. I’m still not sold that models have figured out storm details/ tracking based off this. I know it’s the GEM, but it has been relatively steady. GFS and Euro Op flipping these wild solutions from cutters to suppression into FL/ GOM). Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Do you have the EPS table for ORF, @RIC Airport? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: It looks like half ensembles have next weeks storms tracking either south or north of us. A few in between give us nice hits like e18 lol…. I’m still not sold that models have figured out storm details/ tracking based off this. I know it’s the GEM, but it has been relatively steady. GFS and Euro Op flipping these wild solutions from cutters to suppression into FL/ GOM). Will see. Yes, hopefully the Canadian can score a win. However, I was not terribly impressed with the EPS, signals are there, but I guess I'm just impatient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 18Z GFS, like the 12z run, has the heaviest precip for Sunday's event north and west of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 NBC 12 is on board for the Sunday threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Slight NW creep on the 18z GFS for the mid-week storm. Closer than it's been in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Slight NW creep on the 18z GFS for the mid-week storm. Closer than it's been in a while Since 6z this morning when it was still a little too far west a tad haha. Not gonna really have an idea until after the Sunday thing gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Figured I’d pop in as I’ve been gone since the last system. Thinking Sunday it will be really tough for good accumulations due to the warm air prior to snow falling, who knows maybe we’ll get lucky. As far as the mid week storm, it’s better to have it where it’s at now opposed to blasting DC and leaving us all with rain. I’m hoping one of these systems gives us the “big” one. I appreciate the 2-3” systems but we really need a good 6-8”+ regional storm to barrel through 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, chris624wx said: Slight NW creep on the 18z GFS for the mid-week storm. Closer than it's been in a while 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Since 6z this morning when it was still a little too far west a tad haha. Not gonna really have an idea until after the Sunday thing gets out of the way. 18z Euro is also farther north. Only goes to hour 144 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 51 minutes ago, RVAman said: Figured I’d pop in as I’ve been gone since the last system. Thinking Sunday it will be really tough for good accumulations due to the warm air prior to snow falling, who knows maybe we’ll get lucky. As far as the mid week storm, it’s better to have it where it’s at now opposed to blasting DC and leaving us all with rain. I’m hoping one of these systems gives us the “big” one. I appreciate the 2-3” systems but we really need a good 6-8”+ regional storm to barrel through Here is 18z Euro for the Sunday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here is 18z Euro for the Sunday threat. Well at least we know for certain it will snow on Sunday. (Sorry folks down SE). Yall may luck out on the big one while we don’t up here. Keep your hopes alive! None of the “well it won’t snow down here in Newport News this winter” comments. It’s only half way through January. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: Well at least we know for certain it will snow on Sunday. (Sorry folks down SE). Yall may luck out on the big one while we don’t up here. Keep your hopes alive! None of the “well it won’t snow down here in Newport News this winter” comments. It’s only half way through January. Plenty of time. Here is what AKQ is thinking so far, @JFLETCHERbullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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