wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I don't think the mid-late week, whether it's one or two systems, is resolved. There is enough confidence in snow Sunday into Sunday night, but who sees the accumulations, and how much still needs to be resolved. The placement of snow as the low departs the area varies from run to run. Definitely not resolved when the European model has a suppressed system out to sea, and then the GFS has a cutter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 18z Euro still shows a band of snow forming during the day Sunday into Sunday evening. QPF totals range from 0.10 to 0.20" on average. Temps at RIC look to be around 33°F at the start but fall to the upper 20s during this light event per this Euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z Euro still shows a band of snow forming during the day Sunday into Sunday evening. QPF totals range from 0.10 to 0.20" on average. Temps at RIC look to be around 33°F at the start but fall to the upper 20s during this light event per this Euro run. Seems like another 1-3" snow the way it's heading. Adding to robust seasonal totals so far! Right during your time my Eagles face the Rams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 At the end of the run, things look very interesting for the middle of the week. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvateach Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’m not really here for the cold, I mean…I’m here for a snow day though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: At the end of the run, things look very interesting for the middle of the week. Looking like a possible 2003 Presidents' Day weekend set up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues. Is the 1031 HP in above the Great Lakes that's forecasted not in right place? Serious question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Is the 1031 HP in above the Great Lakes that's forecasted not in right place? Serious question. Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol Likewise lol-I try to read a lot from people who know on this thread and the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18z EPS improved, nice north trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol 49 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Likewise lol-I try to read a lot from people who know on this thread and the other We need the high responsible for next week's cold to exit off the coast northeast of us. 18Z GFS, for example, had the high exiting off ORF, setting the stage for SE winds ahead of the system arriving next Friday. The mid-levels get screwed up, all of I-95 mixes, and we even eventually turn over to rain. It's just one solution on the table. Let's see what later runs do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, Rvateach said: I’m not really here for the cold, I mean…I’m here for a snow day though! I hope so as well. Favorable patterns don't last and eventually break down, so we have to score when we can. But, when they do, do the patterns return? The end of the EPS showed a SE ridge forming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS ok for Sun evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I hope so as well. Favorable patterns don't last and eventually break down, so we have to score when we can. But, when they do, do the patterns return? The end of the EPS showed a SE ridge forming. Phase 3 of MJO would be ok. Phase 4 we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS ok for Sun evening There is no real change on the Sunday snow idea, except that both GFS and Euro have an earlier arrival time on Sunday, and this run of the GFS had a bit more QPF in spots (>0.40"). Temps look to start around freezing at the onset, then drop as colder air filters in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS ok for Sun evening Great here. 4 inches. ICON again north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Great here. 4 inches. ICON again north Placement of the higher totals on both GFS and Euro continue to shift from run to run. But, it's good to see they are honing in on our part of the state. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 00z GFS is either going to be a carbon copy of 18z or actually cut well west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS is either going to be a carbon copy of 18z or actually cut well west of us. Heard it hasn't scored well this season -a week out for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nice Inland low and rainstorm…:/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 06z Gfs shows a stronger, more southern low developing Sun/mon. It’s been consistent on the development for several runs now. Whether it’s correct or not in its placement is a different matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Better for the next one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Better for the next one too Yes. I’d like to see a more southern shift by about 100 miles. I still think the models are having a hard time with the strength of that arctic high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 There's been an underlying trend for nearly a month now for mid/long range models to underestimate the pushback of confluence or suppressive flow. This weekend looked more like rain than snow out in time but the speed/depth of the acrtic front trended favorably. Atmosphere seems to want to buck the trend of the much more typical "north trend" or "slow cold". The way I look at things, the atmosphere has spoken and typical model trends that we expect aren't happening as expected. Each event is unique but until I see anything other than what has been repeating, I'll continue to hedge colder/snowier on all threats mid range or longer until I'm told to stop doing that... lolol Dies RIC end up with more snow than DC? It might just do that. Fun winter! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's been an underlying trend for nearly a month now for mid/long range models to underestimate the pushback of confluence or suppressive flow. This weekend looked more like rain than snow out in time but the speed/depth of the acrtic front trended favorably. Atmosphere seems to want to buck the trend of the much more typical "north trend" or "slow cold". The way I look at things, the atmosphere has spoken and typical model trends that we expect aren't happening as expected. Each event is unique but until I see anything other than what has been repeating, I'll continue to hedge colder/snowier on all threats mid range or longer until I'm told to stop doing that... lolol Dies RIC end up with more snow than DC? It might just do that. Fun winter! This is great thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Anyone have 6z Euro snow map for sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone have 6z Euro snow map for sun? Its a nothing burger from here to RIC. ICON further north. Looking like another snowless winter in Newport News. The rain/snow slop we have got so far means nothing https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2025011612&fh=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 12z GFS has a similar solution to that of the Euro for the Sunday threat. Has the best chance of accumulations north and west of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS has a similar solution to that of the Euro for the Sunday threat. Has the best chance of accumulations north and west of RIC. Well that's no fun! Sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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