Stormpc Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM 50 minutes ago, Stormpc said: We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? Hopefully the cold will produce something for SEVA and NENC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Anybody see the 6Z GFS? Has a few inches of snow by Monday and then a bigger storm with snow the following Thursday and Friday less than 10 days from now for both of them obviously. 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: It’s pretty cool to look at! 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? 14 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Hopefully the cold will produce something for SEVA and NENC I'm happy to see the threats keep popping up. There have been wild swings and storms on (some blockbuster events) and off, so it's hard to take anything too seriously for now. Come back at 12z , and I think, based on how the Euro has performed overall, I would like to see the Euro get on board before I get excited. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM 13 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Although there haven’t been any major storms, these light snow events combined with cold temperatures have made January 2025 the best stretch of winter in years. For the first time since the 2016 blizzard, Richmond has officially recorded seven consecutive days with a snow depth of 1 inch or more. Snow depth is measured daily at 7 a.m. (12z), and the recorded depth goes for that calendar date, even if the snow melts later in the day. You can see the 12z daily snow depth in the first attachment below. January 5th has a 0 snow depth because the snow did not begin until later in the evening. The next attachment below shows Richmond's longest snow cover stretches from 2000 to 2025. Two back-to-back snowstorms helped make January 2025 have one of the most consistent snow cover periods over the last 25 years. Notice that the snowy winter of 2009-10 had 1 inch + snow cover lasting 14 days (16 days if you include trace amounts). The record for Richmond is 21 days from the winter of 1947-48. Furthermore, the first 12 days of this month rank among the top 20 coldest first 12 days of January since records began in 1897. With the continued cold temperatures projected over the next two weeks, this January has the potential to be the coldest since at least 1988. So far this month, Richmond has received 6.5 inches of snow. To rank among the top 10 snowiest Januarys, an additional 8 inches of snow would be needed by the end of the month. January 2025 is off to a great start and hopefully we can score in a big way before things are all done, we are due for a 20"+ season. 12 hours ago, Conway7305 said: This is good info. Thanks RIC! All we need is a clean Miller A and we are set Here's an update! Yesterday morning, the snow depth measured at 12z was 2 inches, bringing the total duration of snow cover to 8 days. This is the longest period of at least 1 inch of snow cover in Richmond since the winter of 2009-2010. Considering that the temperature at RIC reached 51°F yesterday, it is likely that this stretch of snow cover has ended after 8 days. However, a trace of snow may have still been recorded on the ground this morning. We'll see what the CF6 says tomorrow for this morning's measurement. According to the snow measurement guidelines. "When in your judgment, less than 50 percent of the exposed ground is covered by snow, even though the covered areas have a significant depth, the snow depth should be recorded as a trace (T). When no snow or ice is on the ground in exposed areas (snow may be present in surrounding forested or otherwise protected areas), record a "0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM GFS is still aggressive with that 2nd wave forming after passage of the cold front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 04:27 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:27 PM 12z GFS is coming in strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS is coming in strong! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 PM The Low can stay right where it is off of the Carolinas! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 04:38 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:38 PM 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: The Low can stay right where it is off of the Carolinas! Hopefully the Euro catches on and we get better support on the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 04:45 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:45 PM Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. Absolutely ideal all around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:08 PM 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. now we need the euro to get on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:12 PM RIC, when they come out, can you post the GFS ensemble members? Thanks bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 05:26 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:26 PM 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: RIC, when they come out, can you post the GFS ensemble members? Thanks bud Looks like good GEFS support for that time-frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 05:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:41 PM 55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. We need to lock this in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 05:43 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:43 PM 44 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: now we need the euro to get on board 12 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We need to lock this in Euro had the storm, but wasn't as kind for our area, not sure I believe the ZR with a track like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 05:50 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:50 PM Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted yesterday at 06:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:06 PM 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? not again. We shall see how this pans out! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. I like this much better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM The only storm that comes to mind delivering anything close to this outcome is the February 12-13, 2014 storm. That's why when you don't have a bona fide high up north and you're relying on just an antecedent airmass, you're bound to have precipitation issues in an EPO-driven pattern. This airmass is colder than that storm, so we may get more snow, but mixing may be inevitable even with a track like this, especially along and east of US 15. Obviously, things will change. There is no need to go into too much detail over one run. The Euro just brought back the storm after taking it away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 06:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:14 PM 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? FWIW, 700 to 900mb goes above 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 06:16 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:16 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 700 to 900mb goes above 0c yup, i saw. on to 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 06:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:16 PM 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? Not worried too much with ZR or precip types. still plenty of time for adjustments. I’m just glad Euro showed a storm. Will be interesting to see how many ensemble members are showing the different tracks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted yesterday at 06:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:41 PM If it's going to be a ZR fest like the Euro wants to do, I'm fine with 33F and rain. I lived through a few bad ice storms in the early aughts in Georgia (thanks to the CAD....), and I've had my fill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 07:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:34 PM 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. Seems like a nice uptick from 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 07:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:40 PM 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX. Right, just like the 2/13/2014 storm, the NAO was positive, but we had a cold antecedent airmass ahead of a Miller A low, but nothing to keep the cold fully locked in despite a good track. So eastern areas mixed, and even turned over to rain for a few hours as far west as RIC before another 2-3" on the back side saved us. The 2013-14 was another winter largely diven by the -EPO. Here is the AKQ map from that event. RIC did slightly worse recording only 5.8". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Right, just like the 2/13/2014 storm, the NAO was positive, but we had a cold antecedent airmass ahead of a Miller A low, but nothing to keep the cold fully locked in despite a good track. So eastern areas mixed, and even turned over to rain for a few hours as far west as RIC before another 2-3" on the back side saved us. The 2013-14 was another winter largely diven by the -EPO. Here is the AKQ map from that event. RIC did slightly worse recording only 5.8". I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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