RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. Absolutely ideal all around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. now we need the euro to get on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 RIC, when they come out, can you post the GFS ensemble members? Thanks bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: RIC, when they come out, can you post the GFS ensemble members? Thanks bud Looks like good GEFS support for that time-frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. We need to lock this in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 44 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: now we need the euro to get on board 12 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We need to lock this in Euro had the storm, but wasn't as kind for our area, not sure I believe the ZR with a track like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? not again. We shall see how this pans out! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @chris624wxtemperatures are frigid during this event. You tap 0.50" to 1.50" into cold air with temperatures 20-25 degrees should offer good ratios. I like this much better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The only storm that comes to mind delivering anything close to this outcome is the February 12-13, 2014 storm. That's why when you don't have a bona fide high up north and you're relying on just an antecedent airmass, you're bound to have precipitation issues in an EPO-driven pattern. This airmass is colder than that storm, so we may get more snow, but mixing may be inevitable even with a track like this, especially along and east of US 15. Obviously, things will change. There is no need to go into too much detail over one run. The Euro just brought back the storm after taking it away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? FWIW, 700 to 900mb goes above 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 700 to 900mb goes above 0c yup, i saw. on to 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? Not worried too much with ZR or precip types. still plenty of time for adjustments. I’m just glad Euro showed a storm. Will be interesting to see how many ensemble members are showing the different tracks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If it's going to be a ZR fest like the Euro wants to do, I'm fine with 33F and rain. I lived through a few bad ice storms in the early aughts in Georgia (thanks to the CAD....), and I've had my fill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. Seems like a nice uptick from 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits. The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX. Right, just like the 2/13/2014 storm, the NAO was positive, but we had a cold antecedent airmass ahead of a Miller A low, but nothing to keep the cold fully locked in despite a good track. So eastern areas mixed, and even turned over to rain for a few hours as far west as RIC before another 2-3" on the back side saved us. The 2013-14 was another winter largely diven by the -EPO. Here is the AKQ map from that event. RIC did slightly worse recording only 5.8". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Right, just like the 2/13/2014 storm, the NAO was positive, but we had a cold antecedent airmass ahead of a Miller A low, but nothing to keep the cold fully locked in despite a good track. So eastern areas mixed, and even turned over to rain for a few hours as far west as RIC before another 2-3" on the back side saved us. The 2013-14 was another winter largely diven by the -EPO. Here is the AKQ map from that event. RIC did slightly worse recording only 5.8". I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, wasnow215 said: I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. Or maybe I'm thinking if another one. Jan 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? We simply dont get freezing rain here luckily. It always warms up to 35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly. 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. It was the biggest snowstorm since 2/6/2010. Temps started in the mid-20s, and 3-6" fell initially, followed by warmer temps where RIC peaked at 37°F under +RA. Temps dropped and there was another 2-4" on the back side of the storm, but eastern areas did better on the back end. As you can see from below, the storm started in the south. Even Charlotte recorded 8.4" before eventually flipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Maybe some snow showers overnight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879282169052328269 GRAF model has it, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: GFS is still aggressive with that 2nd wave forming after passage of the cold front. 18Z GFS is even more aggressive with this wave that trails the front . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 anyone feel that possible earthquake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I felt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS 1/ 20 energy gives us a nice 3” but suppresses the 23rd storm. It’s really isn’t that much off track as Low still climbs the coast. Will see what ensembles say. Prob some decent hits still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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