Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[chris624wx]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

HRRR seems to be slighty faster as well. 

Loving those few hours of heavy banding down here before the flip happens. If we can get .1''/hr+ rates that would be optimal!

[Rsheely88]

Loving those few hours of heavy banding down here before the flip happens. If we can get .1''/hr+ rates that would be optimal!

If we can keep the warm nose at the VA line SE Va could cash in 6-8”. Big if but the moisture is there


.

[RIC Airport]

The NAM is also looking great!!! 

[RVAman]

16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Man I told a friend of mine I was thinking of December 2018 with this storm earlier tonight!

December 2018. Man what  dark time in my life. My ex fiancé cheated and left two months prior but I remember that storm being one of the few things that brought my happiness at that time. Now I’m married for 3 years with a 2 year old living in my own home. I can’t wait for him to see his first snow that’s not an icy mess like last weekend. 

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The NAM is also looking great!!! 

[RIC Airport]

3K NAM was drier overall.

[jlewis1111]

3 hours ago, Sernest14 said:

No it didn’t- had on average 5-6 in short pump with minimal down to nc border.  Very easy to go back and look at the numerous runs that showed that vs a random run

towards the end the euro caved to the gfs and nam with near 24 hours to go lol  so when did the euro become a short range model lmao nice try... Btw you see the 0z Nam exactly more snow no near ric then south. North trend nothing new

[jlewis1111]

2 hours ago, Demeter said:

Did it show it one time and you held on to that run?  

This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever

[jlewis1111]

Anways 12k nam more juiced up for ric and more rain down near Hampton newport news. Nothing new storms always trend north near start time

Yup Love my tone

[jlewis1111]

so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA 

[RVAman]

9 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA 

Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. 

[Rhino16]

Hope everyone in Richmond is doing alright! Back in Blacksburg, but I know how the water thing feels after Helene. 

[Demeter]

14 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever

It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult.  Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. 

[jlewis1111]

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. 

Im not upset at all. Just saying the euro didnt do well with the last storm. gfs and nam did much better thats all. Just not really paying attention to the euro this storm and paying more attention to the usa models. Limit post me Idc. Just pointing out facts 

[jlewis1111]

Just now, Demeter said:

It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult.  Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. 

agreed

[ldub23]

ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC

[wasnow215]

Oh boy

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC

It wasn't very snowy at 18 Z either

[Conway7305]

It’s the ICON…lol 

[RVAman]

Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. 

[chris624wx]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. 

Anyone have the latest GRAF? Not sure how often it runs

[RIC Airport]

00z GFS was about .10" less in QPF on average for most from the 18z run.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

It’s the ICON…lol 

Exactly, it's just an extra tool. ICON hasn't been around long enough to have a reputation and "SEEing" things over the legacy models. 

[Dick_LeBoof]

18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event.  You love to see it. 

 

[RIC Airport]

6 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event.  You love to see it. 

Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM EST Thursday Update...

General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the
hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in
QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system.
There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a
narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across
the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the
00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on
headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite
likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the
city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a
warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will
almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of
the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore.
Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type
concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well.

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM EST Thursday Update...

General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the
hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in
QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system.
There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a
narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across
the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the
00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on
headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite
likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the
city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a
warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will
almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of
the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore.
Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type
concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well.

Updated map, somewhere between RIC and PHF could hit 6 inches.