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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

RIC Airport

By RIC Airport,
in Mid Atlantic

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eaglesin2011
eaglesin2011

Picture from Powhatan Va

RVAman
RVAman

I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in

Midlo Snow Maker
Midlo Snow Maker

9pm 1.5" 10pm 2.5" 11pm 3.5"

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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, SnowBeach said:

Bring it! ☃️

This is one of those deals where the Western Branch of Chesapeake up near the mmmmmbt tunnel has 3.5 inches while the people down in South Chesapeake and Great Bridge barely have 1.5. 

Still early. 

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

It's hard not to hedge bets win the European model still is so dry and south. If we do get 3 to 5 inches it is a big model fail for the European model.

Bro the euro is trash. It had the whole system last time with short pump area between 9-13.. Complete garbage

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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted

I want to see ground truth and what this does the next 12 to 16 hours in the Deep South into South Carolina and western North carolina. Which side of the frozen spectrum they see as compared to what these models are spewing out. So many variables. It's interesting yet comical but it certainly looks like from Newport News up to Richmond there's going to be a good hit.

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RVAman said:

Did the euro not do well on Monday? I thought it was pretty darn accurate. 

Id did F awful. It had accumulation all the way down the va nc border. Also had short Pump between 9-13 inches. Euro did awful. Keep the system south. GFS and Nam both had it north and less accumlation down here. Im not even paying attention to the euro this go around. Its trash and was trash last winter too

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I want to see ground truth and what this does the next 12 to 16 hours in the Deep South into South Carolina and western North carolina. Which side of the frozen spectrum they see as compared to what these models are spewing out. So many variables. It's interesting yet comical but it certainly looks like from Newport News up to Richmond there's going to be a good hit.

Yup with the north trend that happens too wouldnt be suprised if the beach is all rain by this time tomorrow on the model

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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Yes win based on last storms performance Euro did awful just saying. 

I think around the southern edges it didn't do as well but it nailed everything from Fredericksburg up through Baltimore... from the Blue Ridge over to the oceans in Maryland and Delaware to the beaches.  It was actually one of the only models that had the northern Edge trimmed properly. Maybe didn't do so hot on the south side but looking beyond just a few spots it did pretty damn well. 

I would never discount the euro.

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I think around the southern edges it didn't do as well but it nailed everything from Fredericksburg up through Baltimore... from the Blue Ridge over to the oceans in Maryland and Delaware to the beaches.  It was actually one of the only models that had the northern Edge trimmed properly. Maybe didn't do so hot on the south side but looking beyond just a few spots it did pretty damn well. 

I would never discount the euro.

hahahah nailed everything from fred up to Baltimore lmao yea it sure did but once again it had short pump at 13 lol gfs and nam picked up the north area of the storm and had lower amounts down here. Please dont backyard wish cast please

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RVAman

RVAman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

hahahah nailed everything from fred up to Baltimore lmao yea it sure did but once again it had short pump at 13 lol gfs and nam picked up the north area of the storm and had lower amounts down here. Please dont backyard wish cast please

You have such a tone that is really annoying tbh. 

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Sernest14

Sernest14

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

hahahah nailed everything from fred up to Baltimore lmao yea it sure did but once again it had short pump at 13 lol gfs and nam picked up the north area of the storm and had lower amounts down here. Please dont backyard wish cast please

No it didn’t- had on average 5-6 in short pump with minimal down to nc border.  Very easy to go back and look at the numerous runs that showed that vs a random run

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Inudaw

Inudaw

Posted
Posted

Euro definitely shows areas north of Richmond (say from Ashland north) a lot more snow than the GFS overall.   The main offender that kept trying to slam Richmond with the last storm was the UKMET.   It was well to far south almost up to gametime with the last system.  Ukmet is once again on the southern end of Guidance and GFS this time is more amped than the rest of the models.    Will be interesting to see the final outcome. 

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RVAman

RVAman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Now I want your thoughts @RIC Airport about this. It's crazy to me how much different it is from the other models. We're only 24 hours away now. Is it onto something or on something in your opinion?

I’d say the EURO is the outlier. I’m leaning more towards the GRAF. I know you asked him for his opinion. I know him pretty well. He will likely say 2-4” for metro RIC with pockets of 5” to the SE side of the city. Now, to the Hampton Roads area I would expect 2-3 inches with locally up to 4” depending on the track of the heavier bands. Let me know if I’m wrong RIC. Appreciate everything you do. (I’m not discounting the Euro but LR models like the GFS/Euro are pretty much pointless now). HRRR, NAM, GRAF, etc are all pretty much aligned) let’s hope for a good good good only snow event for our area. We need it and deserve it. 

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wasnow215

wasnow215

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RVAman said:

I’d say the EURO is the outlier. I’m leaning more towards the GRAF. I know you asked him for his opinion. I know him pretty well. He will likely say 2-4” for metro RIC with pockets of 5” to the SE side of the city. Now, to the Hampton Roads area I would expect 2-3 inches with locally up to 4” depending on the track of the heavier bands. Let me know if I’m wrong RIC. Appreciate everything you do. (I’m not discounting the Euro but LR models like the GFS/Euro are pretty much pointless now). HRRR, NAM, GRAF, etc are all pretty much aligned) let’s hope for a good good good only snow event for our area. We need it and deserve it. 

I agree 100%! But what a fail this would be for the Euro this close in! It hasn't budged!

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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Posted
15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Now I want your thoughts @RIC Airport about this. It's crazy to me how much different it is from the other models. We're only 24 hours away now. Is it onto something or on something in your opinion?

This storm reminds me of 12/9/2018, in a way. As the system moved from west to east, the models underestimated the expected precipitation (QPF) as it approached I-95 and points between Richmond and Williamsburg. This led to an inaccurate forecast since the actual numbers around Richmond were much higher than predicted when the moisture came in.

For now, I believe a forecast of 2" to 4" is a reasonable and conservative estimate. However, I remain open to adjustments based on radar trends in the next 24 hours and how the moisture moves into our region. I don't think 5-6" in a few lucky spots is unreasonable. 

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wasnow215

wasnow215

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

This storm reminds me of 12/9/2018, in a way. As the system moved from west to east, the models underestimated the expected precipitation (QPF) as it approached I-95 and points between Richmond and Williamsburg. This led to an inaccurate forecast since the actual numbers around Richmond were much higher than predicted when the moisture came in.

For now, I believe a forecast of 2" to 4" is a reasonable and conservative estimate. However, I remain open to adjustments based on radar trends in the next 24 hours and how the moisture moves into our region. I don't think 5-6" in a few lucky spots is unreasonable. 

Man I told a friend of mine I was thinking of December 2018 with this storm earlier tonight!

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