Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[jlewis1111]

GFS nailed that hurricane also this past fall. Euro cmc horrible with it. 

[jlewis1111]

13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

CMC so dry also for RVA

piece of shi* model alongside the euro which both did shi* on the past system

[RIC Airport]

53 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

@RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS

Yes, I did. Sorry I couldn't PBP, I had to step away. Hopefully this thing overperforms for our area. 

[VARTV]

Latest GRAF run from Andrew Dockery WMBF... Stays all snow in Virginia throughout event... https://x.com/andrewwmbf/status/1877397747797549560?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[chris624wx]

Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro?

[RIC Airport]

The timing of this event reminds me of the 2/26/2015 storm. It was an overnight event starting around midnight or so and quickly became heavy snow for a few hours. RIC finished with 5 inches and it was all done around sunrise. 

A few images I saved from that event. February 2015 overall was a really go month, a ton of cold and good snows.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

6 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro?

[RIC Airport]

I have to step away soon and won't be timely on posting maps from todays 18z suite. Have quite a few errands to make. 

[chris624wx]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Thanks! I'd lock that in and call it a success!

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

 

Here is our local map.

4 would  be amazing  here.

[RVAman]

Hoping we all cash in. from metro Richmond to Hampton roads 3-5 inches. Of course I’m greedy and want 5 up here but want you guys in on it too

[wasnow215]

15 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Hoping we all cash in. from metro Richmond to Hampton roads 3-5 inches. Of course I’m greedy and want 5 up here but want you guys in on it too

It's hard not to hedge bets win the European model still is so dry and south. If we do get 3 to 5 inches it is a big model fail for the European model.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

NCZ012-VAZ084-086>090-092-093-099-100-523>525-100345-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/
Northampton-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James
City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Accomack-Northampton-York-Newport
News-Hampton/Poquoson-
231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected, with the potential for a light glaze
  of ice. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice
  accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
  southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

VAZ060-065>067-079>083-085-514-516-518-520-100345-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/
Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern
King William-Eastern King and Queen-
231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  4 inches expected, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and south
  central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

[Conway7305]

HRRR has a 4-6” swath from RVA to Newport News. 

[Sernest14]

Radar looks more juiced than 3k nam is showing 

[RVAman]

Man I’m not even in the winter storm warning here over in tuckahoe. That’s lame. 

[Conway7305]

18z NAM holds strong 

 

[Conway7305]

Long Range EPS look good 

[Conway7305]

[JB Fins]

20 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Man I’m not even in the winter storm warning here over in tuckahoe. That’s lame. 

We will be, hard to imagine that not expanding to include metro and Western Henrico

[jlewis1111]

Once again  why you guys hugging the euro? Oh must be a backyard thing lol Euro did awful on amounts last storm. gfs and nam both did great. 

[RVAman]

Did the euro not do well on Monday? I thought it was pretty darn accurate. 

[wasnow215]

20 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Once again  why you guys hugging the euro? Oh must be a backyard thing lol Euro did awful on amounts last storm. gfs and nam both did great. 

Not hugging the euro and not talking about just the last one but overall the European model has been one of the better models for years and years. So it makes sense that one would hope that it would show more than an inch to an inch and a half of snow in our area here in Richmond. I'm not even saying it's going to be right it's just weird

[chris624wx]

AKQ really leaning into the warm nose for Southside Hampton Roads in their latest AFD. That's why we weren't upgraded to the WSW. 

[Rsheely88]

AKQ really leaning into the warm nose for Southside Hampton Roads in their latest AFD. That's why we weren't upgraded to the WSW. 

I think as they are always very conservative. I think the warm nose comes to the border- if that. This is a classic tidewater storm. Hopefully bombs and over performs


.

[Rsheely88]

AKQ really leaning into the warm nose for Southside Hampton Roads in their latest AFD. That's why we weren't upgraded to the WSW. 

Look at 18z GFS upped totals again, GFS V3 does a better job with rain snow line and has higher amounts in SE VA. GFS pumps out 6” with some sleet but not sure since RS line will be crucial


.

[DownS.EasternVa]

GFS just dropped a bomb on all of Eastern VA

[DownS.EasternVa]

GFS trending colder for Hampton Roads as well, 32-33 the entire event.

[chris624wx]