ldub23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, VARTV said: GRAF model most nice for Hampton Roads... what's the consensus here about its reliability? Hopefully it is accurate. It seems to be reliable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Take the short range HRRR for what it’s worth but some folks in Mid Atlantic forum are saying northern vortex has been weakening on past few runs which helps increase precip field north. Here is the latest HRRR run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 36 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Hopefully it is accurate. It seems to be reliable I've seen it to be REALLY good... shocking sometimes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Take the short range HRRR for what it’s worth but some folks in Mid Atlantic forum are saying northern vortex has been weakening on past few runs which helps increase precip field north. Here is the latest HRRR run Here is our local map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, VARTV said: I've seen it to be REALLY good... shocking sometimes... I agree. It usually does well. The problem is that we don't have access to it. Only the TV stations. But some Mets, like Mike Thomas (Fox 5 DC), post it a lot, so I try to look for his posts when I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I agree. It usually does well. The problem is that we don't have access to it. Only the TV stations. But some Mets, like Mike Thomas (Fox 5 DC), post it a lot, so I try to look for his posts when I can. It's usually dryer than ground truth. Especially in the summertime with storms. Does a pretty poor job actually. Maybe if better with winter events. I don't know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Nice blend of overnight runs still a little all over the place but I think a general consensus is that Metro Richmond and immediate south and east are looking at a good 2-4/3-5 Precipitation transport looks solid now, not spotty with a nice slug overnight Friday/Saturday over top of FRIGID ground. The question is Hampton Rds, which I suspect will differ drastically from just a few miles depending upon latitude. That warm nose looks to come straight from the east Southeast or due south so Norfolk may be snowing with 3 inches on the ground while the heart of Chesapeake is getting a sleet storm and further south into interior Northeast North Carolina just plain old freezing rain or rain with an inch of crust. Still time for changes in either direction but either way it's going to be interesting. Then it gets cold again next week. Maybe even colder than this past week. Impressive winter so far for sure. Yup, this month may end up being the coldest January since at least 2014, possibly the 1980s if this keeps up. And two measurable events within seven days quite a treat for us. Btw, saw this WTKR map moments ago. 8 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's usually dryer than ground truth. Especially in the summertime with storms. Does a pretty poor job actually. Maybe if better with winter events. I don't know You may be right, I only follow it for certain events of interest. Not sure how it does with storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here is our local map.If that verifies (which HRRR, yeah idk) I'd be ecstatic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z Nam comes in amped! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Conway7305 said: Lol not for nothin but was wondering why people didn't post this here an hour and 45 min ago haha. Did you see the GFS that just came out l?? Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Conway7305 said: can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol Haha yes! I would feel better if the euro came a little more north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Basically , most of the models have juiced up the storm. NAM ICON, HRRR, GFS on midday runs. Precip shield further north and stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Who was the guy crying this past weekend that the beach dosent get any snow and gonna hang it up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/7/2025 at 9:02 AM, Stormpc said: Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. what's your thoughts now on amount for RIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Glad models are juicer for y'all away from the coast this morning. I just don't like warm nose on the NAM down here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 CMC so dry also for RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 cmc euro did shit with this past system. Why even bother looking at that junk. Gfs and Nam did best. Only models I care about looking at. Euro is shit also cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS nailed that hurricane also this past fall. Euro cmc horrible with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: CMC so dry also for RVA piece of shi* model alongside the euro which both did shi* on the past system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 53 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS Yes, I did. Sorry I couldn't PBP, I had to step away. Hopefully this thing overperforms for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Latest GRAF run from Andrew Dockery WMBF... Stays all snow in Virginia throughout event... https://x.com/andrewwmbf/status/1877397747797549560?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 The timing of this event reminds me of the 2/26/2015 storm. It was an overnight event starting around midnight or so and quickly became heavy snow for a few hours. RIC finished with 5 inches and it was all done around sunrise. A few images I saved from that event. February 2015 overall was a really go month, a ton of cold and good snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 I have to step away soon and won't be timely on posting maps from todays 18z suite. Have quite a few errands to make. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Thanks! I'd lock that in and call it a success! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Here is our local map. 4 would be amazing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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