ldub23 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend. Better than 75 and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: 00Z OP took it away and replaces it with cold and dry, but the ensmeble run was still encouraging, several big hits including one that obliterates RIC, @ldub23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Also, 00z Euro is a hit at 240. So something will hit eventually, but being in the LR everything is subject to timing and strength fluctuations and also which shortwave in the flow will be our hero. Fun to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Looks like some sustained cold coming…? Maybe…? Possibly…? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, tigersaint11 said: Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. I enjoy reading this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Let’s hope this can happen again. Seems all the atmospheric conditions are similar to 2016 once we hit early January Radar loop from Blizzard of 2016 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, tigersaint11 said: Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. 57 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I enjoy reading this thread. 47 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Let’s hope this can happen again. Seems all the atmospheric conditions are similar to 2016 once we hit early January Radar loop from Blizzard of 2016 Thank you, I think we see something big soon and plus, we are about to enter the most climatologically favorable time of the winter. We deserve it, especially after last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Looks like some sustained cold coming…? Maybe…? Possibly…? Yeah, looking more and more that way. Canada is finally starting to see legit cold coming across the pole. Hopefully we see this juicy STJ coincide with it. Also, ideally it'll help keep snow on the ground for a while and not melt the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Also, 00z Euro is a hit at 240. So something will hit eventually, but being in the LR everything is subject to timing and strength fluctuations and also which shortwave in the flow will be our hero. Fun to track. Some of last night's Euro Ensembles (posted below) were also big hits for the state. This morning's 6Z GFS Ens had snowstorm threats around the 1st, the 4th and then again from the 6-8th and I saw big hits on those as well. So, the storm signal is definitely there. The 12 GFS is running now, curious to see what the rest of today's 12Z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Some of last night's Euro Ensembles (posted below) were also big hits for the state. This morning's 6Z GFS Ens had snowstorm threats around the 1st, the 4th and then again from the 6-8th and I saw big hits on those as well. So, the storm signal is definitely there. The 12 GFS is running now, curious to see what the rest of today's 12Z suite does. By the way, I pulled Euro ensemble member 42 from last night to see how it came to its solution and it's absolutely beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Wow! Sign me up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Unfortunately the operational Euro at 12Z did not deliver us that storm at the end of the run. The energy that produced the storm in the SE on the 00Z run is still there, 12Z is just slower and weaker with it so the run ends at 240 before we can see if it turns into anything like 00Z showed. I will look at the 12Z Euro ensembles as they come in and see what happens beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 I looked at the 12Z GFS ensembles and some of them still show several winter storm opportunities around the 31st/1st, but bigger signals for the 4th-5th and also the 6th-8th of January. This is a loop of the ensemble mean from January 1st to 12Z on the 8th. I also included below a regional view for the 4th, 5th, and 6th- 8th. You can see the stronger signals for snow they have around the 4th and 5th. Then there appeared to be a more significant storm from the 6-8th and some of the members also looked icy. 3-4th threat 6-8th threat, you can see a wide range here, some members are apparently icy. Snow mean for the entire ensemble run. Below are the 12z GFS 30 ensemble members with snow totals for the entire run. There are a few good hits for the state, especially p06. But, as typical, there are complete shutouts, hence, the above mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Unfortunately the operational Euro at 12Z did not deliver us that storm at the end of the run. The energy that produced the storm in the SE on the 00Z run is still there, 12Z is just slower and weaker with it so the run ends at 240 before we can see if it turns into anything like 00Z showed. I will look at the 12Z Euro ensembles as they come in and see what happens beyond that. The 12Z Euro ensembles have the threat around the 3rd-5th and then again beginning the 6th, which is on par with what the GFS ensembles showed. Below is the loop of the mean from the 1st until the run ends at 12z on the 7th, and you can watch the threats. Interestingly, the snow mean INCREASED for everyone from the 00Z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 50 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z Euro ensembles have the threat around the 3rd-5th and then again beginning the 6th, which is on par with what the GFS ensembles showed. Below is the loop of the mean from the 1st until the run ends at 12z on the 7th, and you can watch the threats. Interestingly, the snow mean INCREASED for everyone from the 00Z run. E20 really crushes this part of the state, especially Hampton Roads. Below are the totals each member spits out for Richmond and Norfolk. Looks like that's why the mean increased some from 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Unfortunately, the 18Z operational GFS didn't deliver any snow for us. The shortwave that had been a winter storm threat around the 4th came out of the southwest but then got squashed by the arctic high coming south out of Canada. You can see what happens to it after it starts to pass TX in the below animation. So, POOF!!!, it's gone at least THIS run of the GFS. We know each run will fluctuate since this is way out there in time. The next disturbance is slightly slower this run, but was gearing up for our threat from around the 6th to the 8th. But, because of the Arctic high to the north, it stays suppressed in the south. By the end of the run it's giving places Charlotte and Atlanta snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 58 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Unfortunately, the 18Z operational GFS didn't deliver any snow for us. The good news is the 18Z ens continue to show a threat around the 4th and the 6-8th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The good news is the 18Z ens continue to show a threat around the 4th and the 6-8th window. The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16. Hopefully the good looks keep coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Hopefully the good looks keep coming! Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. Maybe that means we’ll be waiting for the “big one” on March 13-14… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 I continue to be encouraged, but I don't need to update about the long-range because the models are just flip-flopping more than usual, and there is no clear emerging trend except I am not seeing signs of us torching. We started 2023 with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s in the first week of January, so I'm so thankful we aren't seeing that this time.But, if you want an update on rain , the 18Z GFS likes the northern and western parts of the state Tuesday and Wednesday. Honestly, those are the places that need it the most based on the latest drought monitor. The below also includes precip from a disturbance that swings through on Friday. Its strength and exact track have fluctuated, so it's subject to change. RIC needs another 1.09" for December 2023 to become the wettest December on record. Also, the next 7 days will be mild, with the upper 50s to even some low 60s in spots through Thursday before it turns colder from Friday through Sunday (upper 40s/low 50s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 23 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. I will bet the record will be broken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2023 Author Share Posted December 25, 2023 16 hours ago, ldub23 said: I will bet the record will be broken Might be in luck if today's 12Z GFS has a clue. Merry Christmas! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 With the current rain coming through, and 0.41 fallen since 0.00AM EST, I think we easily reach the most rainy december, beating 2009. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Well, we did it. At about 1.29” for today, we’ve beaten December 2009 and 2023 moves to most rainy december for RIC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Lets get some snow talk started. Its has snowed in winter before and IT WILL again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Well, we did it. At about 1.29” for today, we’ve beaten December 2009 and 2023 moves to most rainy december for RIC. Nice! Too bad we only got 0.2" of snow out of it. 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Lets get some snow talk started. Its has snowed in winter before and IT WILL again. Yup, getting tired of talking about this "pattern change" from a theoretical perspective, impatiently waiting to see things fall in place. But there is still plenty of time left. All we need is 3 weeks of an excellent pattern to score, and even if it takes another 3-4 weeks to get there, we are still in the heart of winter. Looking at you February 2015 and others. @ldub23, GFS did have a SE VA snowstorm last night at 00Z in case you missed it. Fantasy land, of course. And of course, 12Z has a Midwest cutter at the end. The model flip flipping continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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