RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Unfortunately the operational Euro at 12Z did not deliver us that storm at the end of the run. The energy that produced the storm in the SE on the 00Z run is still there, 12Z is just slower and weaker with it so the run ends at 240 before we can see if it turns into anything like 00Z showed. I will look at the 12Z Euro ensembles as they come in and see what happens beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 I looked at the 12Z GFS ensembles and some of them still show several winter storm opportunities around the 31st/1st, but bigger signals for the 4th-5th and also the 6th-8th of January. This is a loop of the ensemble mean from January 1st to 12Z on the 8th. I also included below a regional view for the 4th, 5th, and 6th- 8th. You can see the stronger signals for snow they have around the 4th and 5th. Then there appeared to be a more significant storm from the 6-8th and some of the members also looked icy. 3-4th threat 6-8th threat, you can see a wide range here, some members are apparently icy. Snow mean for the entire ensemble run. Below are the 12z GFS 30 ensemble members with snow totals for the entire run. There are a few good hits for the state, especially p06. But, as typical, there are complete shutouts, hence, the above mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Unfortunately the operational Euro at 12Z did not deliver us that storm at the end of the run. The energy that produced the storm in the SE on the 00Z run is still there, 12Z is just slower and weaker with it so the run ends at 240 before we can see if it turns into anything like 00Z showed. I will look at the 12Z Euro ensembles as they come in and see what happens beyond that. The 12Z Euro ensembles have the threat around the 3rd-5th and then again beginning the 6th, which is on par with what the GFS ensembles showed. Below is the loop of the mean from the 1st until the run ends at 12z on the 7th, and you can watch the threats. Interestingly, the snow mean INCREASED for everyone from the 00Z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 50 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z Euro ensembles have the threat around the 3rd-5th and then again beginning the 6th, which is on par with what the GFS ensembles showed. Below is the loop of the mean from the 1st until the run ends at 12z on the 7th, and you can watch the threats. Interestingly, the snow mean INCREASED for everyone from the 00Z run. E20 really crushes this part of the state, especially Hampton Roads. Below are the totals each member spits out for Richmond and Norfolk. Looks like that's why the mean increased some from 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Unfortunately, the 18Z operational GFS didn't deliver any snow for us. The shortwave that had been a winter storm threat around the 4th came out of the southwest but then got squashed by the arctic high coming south out of Canada. You can see what happens to it after it starts to pass TX in the below animation. So, POOF!!!, it's gone at least THIS run of the GFS. We know each run will fluctuate since this is way out there in time. The next disturbance is slightly slower this run, but was gearing up for our threat from around the 6th to the 8th. But, because of the Arctic high to the north, it stays suppressed in the south. By the end of the run it's giving places Charlotte and Atlanta snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 58 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Unfortunately, the 18Z operational GFS didn't deliver any snow for us. The good news is the 18Z ens continue to show a threat around the 4th and the 6-8th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The good news is the 18Z ens continue to show a threat around the 4th and the 6-8th window. The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16. Hopefully the good looks keep coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Hopefully the good looks keep coming! Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. Maybe that means we’ll be waiting for the “big one” on March 13-14… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 I continue to be encouraged, but I don't need to update about the long-range because the models are just flip-flopping more than usual, and there is no clear emerging trend except I am not seeing signs of us torching. We started 2023 with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s in the first week of January, so I'm so thankful we aren't seeing that this time.But, if you want an update on rain , the 18Z GFS likes the northern and western parts of the state Tuesday and Wednesday. Honestly, those are the places that need it the most based on the latest drought monitor. The below also includes precip from a disturbance that swings through on Friday. Its strength and exact track have fluctuated, so it's subject to change. RIC needs another 1.09" for December 2023 to become the wettest December on record. Also, the next 7 days will be mild, with the upper 50s to even some low 60s in spots through Thursday before it turns colder from Friday through Sunday (upper 40s/low 50s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 23 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. I will bet the record will be broken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2023 Author Share Posted December 25, 2023 16 hours ago, ldub23 said: I will bet the record will be broken Might be in luck if today's 12Z GFS has a clue. Merry Christmas! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 With the current rain coming through, and 0.41 fallen since 0.00AM EST, I think we easily reach the most rainy december, beating 2009. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Well, we did it. At about 1.29” for today, we’ve beaten December 2009 and 2023 moves to most rainy december for RIC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Lets get some snow talk started. Its has snowed in winter before and IT WILL again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Well, we did it. At about 1.29” for today, we’ve beaten December 2009 and 2023 moves to most rainy december for RIC. Nice! Too bad we only got 0.2" of snow out of it. 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Lets get some snow talk started. Its has snowed in winter before and IT WILL again. Yup, getting tired of talking about this "pattern change" from a theoretical perspective, impatiently waiting to see things fall in place. But there is still plenty of time left. All we need is 3 weeks of an excellent pattern to score, and even if it takes another 3-4 weeks to get there, we are still in the heart of winter. Looking at you February 2015 and others. @ldub23, GFS did have a SE VA snowstorm last night at 00Z in case you missed it. Fantasy land, of course. And of course, 12Z has a Midwest cutter at the end. The model flip flipping continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Nice! Too bad we only got 0.2" of snow out of it. Yup, getting tired of talking about this "pattern change" from a theoretical perspective, impatiently waiting to see things fall in place. But there is still plenty of time left. All we need is 3 weeks of an excellent pattern to score, and even if it takes another 3-4 weeks to get there, we are still in the heart of winter. Looking at you February 2015 and others. @ldub23, GFS did have a SE VA snowstorm last night at 00Z in case you missed it. Fantasy land, of course. And of course, 12Z has a Midwest cutter at the end. The model flip flipping continues. I saw it but the cold never actually comes. No arctic air anywhere in the country ans the winter is 1/3 over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 At Norfolk so far this December is 5 degrees warmer than last december. Dec 2022 was -2.1 and so far this december we are +3.0. I didnt think it could possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2023 Author Share Posted December 28, 2023 8 hours ago, ldub23 said: At Norfolk so far this December is 5 degrees warmer than last december. Dec 2022 was -2.1 and so far this december we are +3.0. I didnt think it could possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol And RIC is at +3.6. In fact, yesterday and the day before were +16 and +12, respectively, from their daily average. To put yesterday's +16 into perspective, the last time Richmond had a daily departure of -16 or lower was on Christmas Eve 2022, when the low temperature was 8°F, and the high was only 24°F, which was a -24 departure from average. We don't seem to get those negative departures as often anymore. So yes, It's been a warm month, although our part of the CONUS looks to have been spared the worst. Also, through yesterday, Norfolk had received 6.34" of rain, which makes December 2023 the second wettest December on record. The wettest, December 2009, had 7.57" and appears safe as the latest models only have up to about 0.10 to 0.25" at best at ORF through the end of the year. Also, Norfolk is moving toward its top 10 stretches of days with less than 1 inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 I still think we will get >1 this winter just by accident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: And RIC is at +3.6. In fact, yesterday and the day before were +16 and +12, respectively, from their daily average. To put yesterday's +16 into perspective, the last time Richmond had a daily departure of -16 or lower was on Christmas Eve 2022, when the low temperature was 8°F, and the high was only 24°F, which was a -24 departure from average. We don't seem to get those negative departures as often anymore. So yes, It's been a warm month, although our part of the CONUS looks to have been spared the worst. Also, through yesterday, Norfolk had received 6.34" of rain, which makes December 2023 the second wettest December on record. The wettest, December 2009, had 7.57" and appears safe as the latest models only have up to about 0.10 to 0.25" at best through ORF through the end of the year. Also, Norfolk is moving toward its top 10 stretches of days with less than 1 inch of snow. The 7.57” deserves to stay because that’s too perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 Some thunder and lightning around and a few sleet pellets thrown in in spots with this upper level low. Anyone see any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brubert Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 We are getting big thunder and lightning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 hours ago, tigersaint11 said: The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon. Fortunately, it is. However, there looks to be surface temp issues for Richmond metro and points southeast. Verbatim precip starts moving between 1am and 4am, and RIC is in the mid-30s to around 40 when the precip moves in, but temps DO drop to just above freezing by 1pm as the low passes and before the precip ends the evening of the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 hours ago, tigersaint11 said: The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon. Some of the 12Z GFS ensembles have it, but many of them look warm or are complete shutouts. The snow mean from the 30 members for this event is around 1" of snow at RIC. Watch closely as I slowed them down so you can see how each member handles this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 The 12z Euro has the storm, @tigersaint11 but similar to the 0z run region, we are too warm region-wide. There could be some snow/ice for some parts of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 Some of the European ensemble members show an opportunity for snow around January 7th and then again between the 12-14th of January. This EPS run was very encouraging for the overarching pattern. Really hope the GEFS trends this way. Rather than dropping the core of the cold out west, the EPS was faster in its delivery and farther east with the orientation of the cold. Also, the -NAO builds west toward Baffin Island, and the SE Ridge is kept at bay the whole run. Keep your hopes alive!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Some of the European ensemble members show an opportunity for snow around January 7th and then again between the 11-14th of January. This EPS run was very encouraging for the overarching pattern. Really hope the GEFS trends this way. Rather than dropping the core of the cold out west, the EPS was faster in its delivery and farther east with the orientation of the cold. Also, the -NAO builds west toward Baffin Island, and the SE Ridge is kept at bay the whole run. Keep your hopes alive!!! Below are the snowfall outputs for each ensemble member for both Richmond and Norfolk from the 12z EPS run. You can also see they indicate a snowstorm threat between January 12th and January 14th, which looks better than the January 7th threat as more members have something for that timeframe. Ensemble Member 12 ^^ obliterates RIC and drops 26" of snow for January 7th. I'm only posting it for fun. It's extreme and obviously should not be taken literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now