Stormpc Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1.47 with first round. Now we see what kind of convective elements come through. Wind just started last 20 minutes where I am at. A few good gusts close to 40. So far pretty much everything according to forecast and plan. "Dangerous" part of the storm is beginning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 I am seeing 2.74" through midnight at RIC and about 2.45" at ORF if I tallied correctly, both easily daily records. If RIC did hit 2.74" it's another monthly daily record, which was previously set last Sunday. AKQ usually sends the CLI around 1:30am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 CLI did say 2.74. This month could beat 2009 if our next rainfall sets up right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 GFS has a couple chances of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 Today is the 14th anniversary of the December 2009 snowstorm. Unfortunately, there wasn't much snow in Hampton Roads as ORF only recorded 0.2", but from Richmond and points north and west, it was a biggie for December. DCA's 16.4" was its biggest December snowstorm since 1957. RIC recorded 7.4" before temperatures rose above freezing and a dry slot moved over the metro area and points SE, while northern and western regions of the state continued to snow. All the snow in the Richmond area came from the overrunning as we were too far south when the coastal got going. Fortunately, this did not happen during the January 2016 storm. There was a sharp cut off of totals across the metro area as places like Short Pump reported 14-16", while only 7-8" at the Richmond airport. The below link is the NWS Wakefield's review of the storm for their CWA. I also added the 1am 12/19/09 observation at Richmond shortly before the snow turned to rain and dry slot began pushing up from the south. The December 2018 snowstorm was a bigger event officially for Richmond. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/winter/2009Dec18_19_Winter_Storm.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS has a couple chances of snow 12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps eastern areas get some backside action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps areas eastern areas get some backside action? At least its showing cold and storms unlike last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 7 hours ago, Rhino16 said: CLI did say 2.74. This month could beat 2009 if our next rainfall sets up right. RIC has had 9.08" of rain since November 21st, clearly El Nino started influencing the pattern after about the middle of November. You can see the the Richmond's CLI's below where RIC's annual rainfall deficit stood on 11/20 ago vs today. Very impressive and could even surpass December 2009, another Nino winter, and make December 2023 as the wettest December on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 AKQ released a storm report with a map. Seems like the 3K NAM did well with the rainfall distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 The 12Z Euro ensembles keep our temperatures mostly around or slightly below average for the remainder of the month. Our normal highs are now around 50°F, while our average lows are around 30-35°F for most locations. So although no immediate signs of extreme cold for this time of year, it's nice to not see any signs of torching either. You may recall the first 5 days of 2023 had daily departures of +15 to +20 from the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever. 45 mph ain't gonna do it here. Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore. Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever. 45 mph ain't gonna do it here. Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore. Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon. Yeah, the winds were not that strong, especially when you compare them to some of the models. But, 3.14" is certainly a good event. And thank you for the compliment. We've had quite a few posters in the older threads. I've noticed, however, they don't come out in droves unless it snows. But, we haven't had much snow since 2018 so I don't know where everyone is. Some have moved away or left for other platforms (X or FB mainly), but I think the lack of snow and awful winters have been problem. That's why I'm trying to keep this thread active and value added, so when people come, they can find it useful. I have access to basically everything that people are posting in the pinned long range thread and don't mind tailoring the information to our area. I don't post much in the pinned threads because they are too DC-centric. Almost every single map or impression assumes the readers live in DC. But, that's nothing new. It's been like that even before 2010 when this board was created, and we were on Eastern. That's why I started the RIC/HR thread back in 2008, basically merging two metro areas, because I wasn't sure if we had enough posters to have our own thread, but it worked out. Just need to people to post more and we can build a better community for our part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 7 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The extended EPS, which runs daily at 00Z, goes out 45 days and seems to like mid to late January, @ldub23. There is a 6" snowfall mean for Richmond and a 3" mean for Norfolk. And if you're seeing what I'm seeing, there is one member that has over 28" of snow at RIC. But, I'm also seeing 3 members that are complete shut outs. . That said, this is the highest I've seen the mean since I started monitoring this since early November. Not all that impressive though i actually my first snowflakes in 2 years late last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 Ahead of the next system, the 00Z GFS shows mid-upper 50s for highs in our area on Christmas Day then rain arrives in the afternoon or evening of the 26th. The 00Z GFS also forms a coastal off of NC/SC so this will adjust as we get closer and the storm track is determined, but right now, rainfall totals look lower than the previous two storms. On the heels of the the main storm another disturbance swings thru and tries to drop snow showers over the state. Surface temps looks decently cold enough, but moisture looks limited at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 Thereafter, things get interesting. This will obviously change, but shows how favorable the pattern is becoming as we head into the new year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 Happy first day of winter. There will be fluctuations, but hopefully this means awesome things ahead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Happy first day of winter. There will be fluctuations, but hopefully this means awesome things ahead! The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend. Better than 75 and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: 00Z OP took it away and replaces it with cold and dry, but the ensmeble run was still encouraging, several big hits including one that obliterates RIC, @ldub23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Also, 00z Euro is a hit at 240. So something will hit eventually, but being in the LR everything is subject to timing and strength fluctuations and also which shortwave in the flow will be our hero. Fun to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Looks like some sustained cold coming…? Maybe…? Possibly…? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, tigersaint11 said: Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. I enjoy reading this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Let’s hope this can happen again. Seems all the atmospheric conditions are similar to 2016 once we hit early January Radar loop from Blizzard of 2016 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, tigersaint11 said: Long time lurker....Really appreciate the daily posts from RIC Airport. Fingers crossed something pans out as we move into January. 57 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I enjoy reading this thread. 47 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Let’s hope this can happen again. Seems all the atmospheric conditions are similar to 2016 once we hit early January Radar loop from Blizzard of 2016 Thank you, I think we see something big soon and plus, we are about to enter the most climatologically favorable time of the winter. We deserve it, especially after last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Looks like some sustained cold coming…? Maybe…? Possibly…? Yeah, looking more and more that way. Canada is finally starting to see legit cold coming across the pole. Hopefully we see this juicy STJ coincide with it. Also, ideally it'll help keep snow on the ground for a while and not melt the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Also, 00z Euro is a hit at 240. So something will hit eventually, but being in the LR everything is subject to timing and strength fluctuations and also which shortwave in the flow will be our hero. Fun to track. Some of last night's Euro Ensembles (posted below) were also big hits for the state. This morning's 6Z GFS Ens had snowstorm threats around the 1st, the 4th and then again from the 6-8th and I saw big hits on those as well. So, the storm signal is definitely there. The 12 GFS is running now, curious to see what the rest of today's 12Z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Some of last night's Euro Ensembles (posted below) were also big hits for the state. This morning's 6Z GFS Ens had snowstorm threats around the 1st, the 4th and then again from the 6-8th and I saw big hits on those as well. So, the storm signal is definitely there. The 12 GFS is running now, curious to see what the rest of today's 12Z suite does. By the way, I pulled Euro ensemble member 42 from last night to see how it came to its solution and it's absolutely beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Wow! Sign me up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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