Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Rhino16]

Not doing temperatures because I’m exhausted, and the rainfall is hard enough… my rainfall guesses are:

Sunday: 2.41”

Monday: 0.55

For a total of 2.96.

Maybe for a high end I’d say 3.25” total, but I’d have to revisit tomorrow.

If the GFS is picking up on something with that location, that would be something.

[Stormpc]

Here we go! Precip shield moving into area. Somehow the ground was saturated and everything wet even without any rain showers this morning so we know we're dealing with some juice. Wind gusting to 46 last hour at Hilton head. Harbinger of things to come. Let's see if anyone can get a gust over 60 later this evening. 55/55 light rain has begun. 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Here we go! Precip shield moving into area. Somehow the ground was saturated and everything wet even without any rain showers this morning so we know we're dealing with some juice. Wind gusting to 46 last hour at Hilton head. Harbinger of things to come. Let's see if anyone can get a gust over 60 later this evening. 55/55 light rain has begun. 

Yup, here it comes! Definitely going to be an interesting storm to track given how the models were fluctuating so much with the track and where the highest rains will fall.

 

[Stormpc]

Winds gusting mid 50s over Hatteras this past hour. Just now getting breezy up here further up coast, still only 20's but it's going downhill. Already near .5 in so far. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Winds gusting mid 50s over Hatteras this past hour. Just now getting breezy up here further up coast, still only 20's but it's going downhill. Already near .5 in so far. 

Yeah, the rain has been pretty steady where I am the last couple of hours. There is some wind, but not much yet. 
 

[RIC Airport]

As of 6pm, Norfolk had received 1.15" of rain, while Richmond was at 0.56" as the heaviest rain was just starting to move in.

Also, Wakefield issued a flood advisory for parts of the Richmond area in the last 15 minutes. 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
558 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

VAC041-053-085-087-149-570-670-730-760-180200-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FA.Y.0120.231217T2258Z-231218T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chesterfield VA-Dinwiddie VA-Hanover VA-Henrico VA-Prince George
VA-City of Colonial Heights VA-City of Hopewell VA-City of
Petersburg VA-City of Richmond VA-
558 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
  rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Virginia, including
  the following counties and independent cities, in central
  Virginia, Chesterfield, City of Colonial Heights, City of
  Richmond, Hanover and Henrico. In south central Virginia, City of
  Hopewell, City of Petersburg, Dinwiddie and Prince George.

* WHEN...Until 900 PM EST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas and
  ponding of water on area roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 558 PM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
    indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream
    flooding. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
    over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
    flooding.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Richmond, Petersburg, Hopewell, Colonial Heights, Ashland,
    Chester, Downtown Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University,
    Virginia Union University, University Of Richmond, Bon Air,
    Highland Springs, Tuckahoe, Virginia State University,
    Mechanicsville, Fort Gregg-Adams, Prince George, Bensley,
    Bellwood and Chesterfield Court House.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

[RIC Airport]

Latest radar.

[Rhino16]

About to cross 1” at RIC. Is that band thing moving east at all or just north? Looks like RIC is just outside of it.

[RIC Airport]

32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

About to cross 1” at RIC. Is that band thing moving east at all or just north? Looks like RIC is just outside of it.

Looks like that band will begin moving east as the storm tracks up the coast. At least that’s the way it appears now.

Looks like RIC is at 1.14” storm total at 7pm. 0.58" fell in the last hour. 

 

 

[Stormpc]

1.47 with first round. Now we see what kind of convective elements come through. Wind just started last 20 minutes where I am at. A few good gusts close to 40. So far pretty much everything according to forecast and plan. "Dangerous" part of the storm is beginning.

 

[RIC Airport]

As of 9pm, RIC was up to 1.87", which breaks the daily rainfall record of 1.78.

Norfolk was at 1.25" and only 0.18" from breaking theirs. 

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

1.47 with first round. Now we see what kind of convective elements come through. Wind just started last 20 minutes where I am at. A few good gusts close to 40. So far pretty much everything according to forecast and plan. "Dangerous" part of the storm is beginning.

 

Yup, definitely not over. There is a severe storm warning to the south in E NC and temperatures and dewpoints across SE VA and NE NC are rising, pressures dropping as the center of the low approaches. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Tornado warnings down around Morehead City.

[RIC Airport]

Easily the heaviest rain of the day here.

And AKQ issued a Flash Flood Warning for cities in Hampton Roads.

 

Flash Flood Warning
VAC199-550-650-700-710-735-740-810-180700-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.W.0080.231218T0354Z-231218T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1054 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern York County in southeastern Virginia...
  The Central City of Chesapeake in southeastern Virginia...
  The City of Hampton in southeastern Virginia...
  The City of Newport News in southeastern Virginia...
  The City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia...
  The City of Poquoson in southeastern Virginia...
  The City of Portsmouth in southeastern Virginia...
  The Northwestern City of Virginia Beach in southeastern Virginia...

* Until 200 AM EST.

* At 1054 PM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain falling across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5
  inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2
  inches in 2 hours. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Virginia Beach, Newport News, Hampton, Old Dominion University,
  Hampton University, Churchland, Ocean View, Downtown Norfolk,
  Downtown Portsmouth, Norfolk State University, Langley AFB,
  Virginia Wesleyan University, Christopher Newport University,
  Regent University, Deep Creek, Kempsville, Patrick Henry Field,
  Great Bridge, Seaford and Virginia Institute For Marine Sciences.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 7663 3726 7653 3723 7637 3719 7637
      3715 7629 3708 7625 3699 7628 3694 7612
      3664 7612 3666 7633 3671 7646 3683 7645
      3689 7640 3690 7642 3690 7643 3694 7636
      3698 7634 3694 7643 3701 7649 3709 7662

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS

$$

EI

[RIC Airport]

I am seeing 2.74" through midnight at RIC and about 2.45" at ORF if I tallied correctly, both easily daily records. If RIC did hit 2.74" it's another monthly daily record, which was previously set last Sunday. 

AKQ usually sends the CLI around 1:30am.

[Rhino16]

CLI did say 2.74. This month could beat 2009 if our next rainfall sets up right.

[ldub23]

GFS has a couple chances of snow

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has a couple chances of snow

 

 

 

We are approaching the most climatologically favorable time of the year, eventually with this active southern stream, we get a good storm.

In the 6Z GFS. The 1st event looked cold, but the 2nd looked like there were surface temp issues for our part of the state for at least part of the event.

Way out there, but like seeing the models pick up on snow chances, it's just a matter of time.

 

[RIC Airport]

Today is the 14th anniversary of the December 2009 snowstorm. Unfortunately, there wasn't much snow in Hampton Roads as ORF only recorded 0.2", but from Richmond and points north and west, it was a biggie for December. DCA's 16.4" was its biggest December snowstorm since 1957. RIC recorded 7.4" before temperatures rose above freezing and a dry slot moved over the metro area and points SE, while northern and western regions of the state continued to snow.

All the snow in the Richmond area came from the overrunning as we were too far south when the coastal got going. Fortunately, this did not happen during the January 2016 storm. There was a sharp cut off of totals across the metro area as places like Short Pump reported 14-16", while only 7-8" at the Richmond airport.

The below link is the NWS Wakefield's review of the storm for their CWA. I also added the 1am 12/19/09 observation at Richmond shortly before the snow turned to rain and dry slot began pushing up from the south.  The December 2018 snowstorm was a bigger event officially for Richmond.

https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/winter/2009Dec18_19_Winter_Storm.pdf

 

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has a couple chances of snow

12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps eastern areas get some backside action? 

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps areas eastern areas get some backside action? 

At  least  its showing cold and storms  unlike  last  year

[RIC Airport]

7 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

CLI did say 2.74. This month could beat 2009 if our next rainfall sets up right.

RIC has had 9.08" of rain since November 21st, clearly El Nino started influencing the pattern after about the middle of November.

You can see the the Richmond's CLI's below where RIC's annual rainfall deficit stood on 11/20 ago vs today. Very impressive and could even surpass December 2009, another Nino winter, and make December 2023 as the wettest December on record. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

AKQ released a storm report with a map. Seems like the 3K NAM did well with the rainfall distribution.

 

[RIC Airport]

The 12Z Euro ensembles keep our temperatures mostly around or slightly below average for the remainder of the month. Our normal highs are now around 50°F, while our average lows are around 30-35°F for most locations. So although no immediate signs of extreme cold for this time of year, it's nice to not see any signs of torching either. You may recall the first 5 days of 2023 had daily departures of +15 to +20 from the average. 

 

 

[Stormpc]

Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever.  45 mph ain't gonna do it here.

Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore.

Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon. 

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever.  45 mph ain't gonna do it here.

Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore.

Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon. 

 

Yeah, the winds were not that strong, especially when you compare them to some of the models. But, 3.14" is certainly a good event.

And thank you for the compliment.  We've had quite a few posters in the older threads. I've noticed, however, they don't come out in droves unless it snows. But, we haven't had much snow since 2018 so I don't know where everyone is. Some have moved away or left for other platforms (X or FB mainly), but I think the lack of snow and awful winters have been problem. That's why I'm trying to keep this thread active and value added, so when people come, they can find it useful. I have access to basically everything that people are posting in the pinned long range thread and don't mind tailoring the information to our area. 

 I don't post much in the pinned threads because they are too DC-centric. Almost every single map or impression assumes the readers live in DC. But, that's nothing new. It's been like that even before 2010 when this board was created, and we were on Eastern. That's why I started the RIC/HR thread back in 2008, basically merging two metro areas, because I wasn't sure if we had enough posters to have our own thread, but it worked out. Just need to people to post more and we can build a better community for our part of the region.

[ldub23]

7 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The extended EPS, which runs daily at 00Z, goes out 45 days and seems to like mid to late January, @ldub23. There is a 6" snowfall mean for Richmond and a 3" mean for Norfolk. And if you're seeing what I'm seeing, there is one member that has over 28" of snow at RIC.   But, I'm also seeing 3 members that are complete shut outs. . That said, this is the highest I've seen the mean since I started monitoring this since early November.

 

Not all that  impressive though i actually  my first snowflakes  in 2 years  late  last  night

[RIC Airport]

Ahead of the next system, the 00Z GFS shows mid-upper 50s for highs in our area on Christmas Day then rain arrives in the afternoon or evening of the 26th. The 00Z GFS also forms a coastal off of NC/SC so this will adjust as we get closer and the storm track is determined, but right now, rainfall totals look lower than the previous two storms. 

On the heels of the the main storm another disturbance swings thru and tries to drop snow showers over the state. Surface temps looks decently cold enough, but moisture looks limited at this time. 

 

 

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Thereafter, things get interesting. This will obviously change, but shows how favorable the pattern is becoming as we head into the new year. 

[RIC Airport]

Happy first day of winter.  

There will be fluctuations, but hopefully this means awesome things ahead! 

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Happy first day of winter.  

There will be fluctuations, but hopefully this means awesome things ahead! 

 

The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend.