wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Ukie, GFS, EURO, RGEM all say we don't get fringed. They still matter more than the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. We DO have the RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let's go RGEM! So besides the NAM (not counting SREF and recent HRRR) what model doesn't give us good snows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. Much snowier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! thanks! need to change my location, i now live in northside. really excited to get my first WSW worthy storm living here, just a bummer it comes on a sunday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This morning, I don’t think the NWS’ forecast is that bad at all. 4” give or take a few seems correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The European model just now came a little more south compared to last night's late night run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Yep at this point, it is smarter to look at short range models. Wow what a dumping on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I know everybody’s in storm mode but both the EPS in the GEFS show some really good storm opportunities next weekend possibly the following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let’s get this party started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Next week, potential clean Miller A 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Book it! Snow breeds snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nam just came in more south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Idk the models seem warmer and more North for any really good show to fall. Huge bust potential imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, RVAman said: Idk the models seem warmer and more North for any really good show to fall. Huge bust potential imo. Most were south and colder. Mixing biggest issue now-over an inch of qpf most models for us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If HRRR is accurate. We see around 5 inches with more near Short Pump. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Most were south and colder. Mixing biggest issue now-over an inch of qpf most models for us NBC12 just said on tv “I have doubts about decent snow around the city but prepare for the worst” not a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also , just looking at the radar feed looks like most of Kentucky is snow right now, and models were showing ice more into central Kentucky. Will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now