RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 02:36 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:36 AM Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:40 AM 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:43 AM It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:44 AM I'll take GFS, EURO, and Ukie, GEM (was improved today) vs the mesos any day of the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:45 AM 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? Straight faced-we don't. And then we can grade on Tuesday afternoon and we will lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 02:46 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:46 AM 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM Just now, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? It's really not about enthusiasm. But we shall see -even the winter storm warnings are much better than the picture you just painted. The verbiage of them and the amounts. am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 AM Just now, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Sunday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 AM Just now, wasnow215 said: am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? No, but I tend to think of the NAM as having the highest precipitation amounts typically. When it doesn’t, I get a little scared. It doesn’t have the lowest QPF here, but it’s too warm so it’s not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Ukie, GFS, EURO, RGEM all say we don't get fringed. They still matter more than the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Sunday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:52 AM 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:54 AM Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:02 AM 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 03:07 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:07 AM 16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. We DO have the RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Sunday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:08 AM RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 03:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:14 AM Let's go RGEM! So besides the NAM (not counting SREF and recent HRRR) what model doesn't give us good snows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM 2 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Sunday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:02 AM Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM 57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. Much snowier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted Sunday at 05:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 AM it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 AM 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted Sunday at 05:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 AM 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! thanks! need to change my location, i now live in northside. really excited to get my first WSW worthy storm living here, just a bummer it comes on a sunday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Sunday at 11:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:13 AM This morning, I don’t think the NWS’ forecast is that bad at all. 4” give or take a few seems correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 12:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:16 PM 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 12:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:25 PM The European model just now came a little more south compared to last night's late night run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Yep at this point, it is smarter to look at short range models. Wow what a dumping on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM I know everybody’s in storm mode but both the EPS in the GEFS show some really good storm opportunities next weekend possibly the following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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