RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If we get 3-6, 4-8, 8-12 (DT is delusional and will never hear the end of that map in my opinion) we all lucked out. Anything more than 3 is a gift of god. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z UKMET stands strong and south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, RVAman said: Wow 4-6 from Wakefield is huge. Let’s go!!!!! Hello 4 hours ago lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Hello 4 hours ago lol jk Tbh I think I have a permanent skepticism here unless it actually happens. Can’t blame me. The rug has been pulled too many times to count in the last 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 No significant changes on the 18z Euro. RIC does rise above freezing between 11am and 4pm Monday before falling below freezing ahead of the back end snow. EDIT: There was a small shift northward with the snowfall axis compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: No significant changes on the 18z Euro. RIC does rise above freezing between 11am and 4pm Monday before falling below freezing ahead of the back end snow. EDIT: There was a small shift northward with the snowfall axis compared to 12z. If you have an opportunity can you do the comparison thing again only if you can please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: If you have an opportunity can you do the comparison thing again only if you can please On my phone at the moment, but here are 18z vs 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: On my phone at the moment, but here are 18z vs 12z. Thanks! Still good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Can someone post the Ukie snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Can someone post the Ukie snow totals? 18z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 CBS 6's latest map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: CBS 6's latest map 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: CBS 6's latest map Did they cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah, seems low, NBC12 went with AKQ 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some of these shorter range models aren’t great this evening… Edit: Not including the NAM yet, still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah the HRRR has only 2.5 inches :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Big bust potential unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! Stuff on the back side definitely looks better, which to me is the important part since it’s the stuff that will stick around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Stuff on the back side definitely looks better, which to me is the important part since it’s the stuff that will stick around. Yes! Way better front end thump too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! yeah NAM did look better especially on back side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone have 12k nam map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'll take GFS, EURO, and Ukie, GEM (was improved today) vs the mesos any day of the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? Straight faced-we don't. And then we can grade on Tuesday afternoon and we will lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? It's really not about enthusiasm. But we shall see -even the winter storm warnings are much better than the picture you just painted. The verbiage of them and the amounts. am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Just now, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, wasnow215 said: am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? No, but I tend to think of the NAM as having the highest precipitation amounts typically. When it doesn’t, I get a little scared. It doesn’t have the lowest QPF here, but it’s too warm so it’s not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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