jlewis1111 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Every model this am has the snow trending more south. Not sure what you guys are looking at. Compare the 12z gfs yday to todays 12z gfs and you will see what Im talking about. Euro is still south Icon south other models going toward the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Every model this am has the snow trending more south. Not sure what you guys are looking at. Compare the 12z gfs yday to todays 12z gfs and you will see what Im talking about. Euro is still south Icon south other models going toward the euro. The clown maps are underdoing the mixing. Each site has a slightly different algorithm, but they are based on a 10:1 ratio. Sites like TT even tell you that their snow map numbers include sleet. For Metro Richmond, 1-4" is a good forecast but has high bust potential. Also, recent runs (including the Euro) have us turning over to rain for a time. That was not the case until about 24 hours or so ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I wasn't impressed with this GFS run for next weekend, it heavily impacts the Northeast while we remain on the southern fringe. At least the storm is still present, so maybe the Euro will produce a more favorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 22 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The clown maps are underdoing the mixing. Each site has a slightly different algorithm, but they are based on a 10:1 ratio. Sites like TT even tell you that their snow map numbers include sleet. For Metro Richmond, 1-4" is a good forecast but has high bust potential. Also, recent runs (including the Euro) have us turning over to rain for a time. That was not the case until about 24 hours or so ago. I think many of us will see 3 inches before it actually mixes. At least 2 inches for sure with that beginning thump. There's 2 to 3 inches right there. And then another one to 2 inches on the backside makes it 3 to 5 inches and that's my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think many of us will see 3 inches before it actually mixes. At least 2 inches for sure with that beginning thump. There's 2 to 3 inches right there. And then another one to 2 inches on the backside makes it 3 to 5 inches and that's my call I’m prepared to be disappointed tbh. I hope you’re right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Y’all will like the UK. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think many of us will see 3 inches before it actually mixes. At least 2 inches for sure with that beginning thump. There's 2 to 3 inches right there. And then another one to 2 inches on the backside makes it 3 to 5 inches and that's my call I think this is a high end possibility and would hope for that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, nj2va said: Y’all will like the UK. Just another possibility and why @wasnow215 is keeping us on our heels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 if the UK verified, we would all have over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, RIC Airport said: Just another possibility and why @wasnow215 is keep us on our heels. I feel like the UK and the euro have been the same basically with the UK a little south of the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Just another possibility and why @wasnow215 is keep us on our heels. I thought the CMC looked better too -I've been kind of running around today and I have to work in a little bit but it looks like the CMC gave us some more frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The king is coming out soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I thought the CMC looked better too -I've been kind of running around today and I have to work in a little bit but it looks like the CMC gave us some more frozen On the colder side of things, also had a nice band on the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 15 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The local TV stations are not as conservative. NBC 12 increased their totals, @wasnow215. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: NBC 12 increased their totals, @wasnow215. They are not totally discounting the models that are showing the more southern tracks. Nor should anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: They are not totally discounting the models that are showing the more southern tracks. Nor should anyone. Euro held strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Someone in Mid Atlantic forum said the euro heavy snow shifted south, can anyone confirm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Euro held strong. It's better than the last two runs isn't it? Can one of you amazing people do a comparison map lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: It's better than the last two runs isn't it? Can one of you amazing people do a comparison map lol? yes, it brings to heavier snows into Richmond. 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Someone in Mid Atlantic forum said the euro heavy snow shifted south, can anyone confirm? 12z Kuchera vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Have to like a UK/EURO combo within 48 hours. Not saying we get that much but damn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: 12z Kuchera vs 6z Much better! I may need to adjust my 3 to 5 inch call lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I am up in Winchester. So I am not out of the game. But I would certainly prefer a combo of the Euro/UK over the American models. I think you all are sitting pretty to be honest. And glad for the southern Shenandoah Valley. You guys are due. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 EPS 12z vs 6z, numbers inched up farther south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RIC gonna get nuked… enjoy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ll probably have to leave ric for this one to get back to school for something at the end of the week. I’m worried the side roads won’t be cleared in time. Kinda lame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: RIC gonna get nuked… enjoy What makes you say that? I find it very hard to believe we’d get more than 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’ll probably have to leave ric for this one to get back to school for something at the end of the week. I’m worried the side roads won’t be cleared in time. Kinda lame. Nah man depending on where you gotta go you’ll be fine. RIC roads if they get “bad” will be fine by Tuesday. These talks of us getting nuked, where is it coming from?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: Nah man depending on where you gotta go you’ll be fine. RIC roads if they get “bad” will be fine by Tuesday. These talks of us getting nuked, where is it coming from?? I am not leaving it off the table, and I certainly don’t want to wait to find out with the cold temperatures afterwards. My neighborhood roads typically hold snow for days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I am not leaving it off the table, and I certainly don’t want to wait to find out with the cold temperatures afterwards. My neighborhood roads typically hold snow for days afterwards. Fair enough. Is school in VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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