Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

 

10 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift. 

Still gets ugly with mixing and even a changeover to rain, but there is a nice deformation band swinging through Virginia on the back side.

 

[RIC Airport]

[RVAman]

Euro is king 

[RVAman]

Even if GFS verifies we’re in decent shape. 

[wasnow215]

It's better again then the 18z-been better each run the past 24 hours!

[RIC Airport]

Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS.

[Conway7305]

GFS slowly caving to Euro. We basically have two parts to the storm, beginning of the storm we get snow, goes to sleet/ freezing rain on Monday then back to snow as cold air draws in. 

[Ephesians2]

CMC is a step in the right direction as well. Confluence further south. Snow jackpot and QPF max now over Fredericksburg, not DC. Verbatim, not exactly what we want in Central VA, but it's an improvement - the 6" line is roughly from Charlottesville to Hanover County. I'm liking these trends. 

[RIC Airport]

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS.

[Conway7305]

Just now, RIC Airport said:

wow!!

[RIC Airport]

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

wow!!

[Conway7305]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Miller A time on 0z! Southeastern and Tennessee forums lit up now…lol 

[Rhino16]

I’ll pay attention to that one when the first mess leaves.

anyways, I’m skipping the euro tonight. I’ll see whether I’m disappointed or not tomorrow.

edit: UK was good again though

[Conway7305]

0z Ukie!!

[ldub23]

29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I  get  my inch!!

[wawarriors4]

0z Euro

[Conway7305]

0z Euro holds!  If anything it tics up snow totals in RVA by an inch or two

[chris624wx]

Hope to at least see some flakes with the back end deformation band of storm # 1 down here in Norfolk, but dang, loving the potential of next weekend's storm!

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>078-509>512-517>522-041600-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central,
  eastern, and north central Virginia.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

VAZ060>062-068-069-082>086-090-099-513>516-041600-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack-Western
Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
  two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and southeast
  Virginia generally along and north of a Farmville-Colonial
  Heights-Toano-Accomack line.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

[wasnow215]

6z GFS best yet!

[JFLETCHER]

6z UKMET holds with heavy snow

[Conway7305]

The latest HRRR look great for RVA when storm starts. I can’t post a pic but go to this link and view the 6z output that gives the longest hourly duration out. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&reg

 

 

 

[RVAman]

Seems like we’re set between 1-4. I really hope it’s on the high end. HRRR looks really good at the start but I’m afraid of the notorious dry slotting. 

[JB Fins]

Agree, get us 3-4” with a hard candy coating that will last…until Saturday when WE get thumped.

[mikeeng92]

Everything looks great. Would like to get the NAM on board today though 

[RVAman]

WTVR says a 40% chance of accumulating snow. Wut???

 

https://www.wtvr.com/news/weather-news/tracking-potential-winter-storm-for-late-sunday-into-monday

[Conway7305]

Post 1/6 Storm, but here is hour 144 on 6z Euro.  Something is developing 

 

[SoCoWx]

Did the models trend away from us overnight? Y’all seem a bit more disenchanted/disinterested this morning, and like I said, I haven’t been following along super closely, just popping in here occasionally to get a vibe check for RVA. 

[RVAman]

3 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

Did the models trend away from us overnight? Y’all seem a bit more disenchanted/disinterested this morning, and like I said, I haven’t been following along super closely, just popping in here occasionally to get a vibe check for RVA. 

RIC usually gives us the most hope in this thread. It kind of feels slower this morning. My gut is in a hard place of feeling like I’ll wake up with a dusting followed by freezing rain that gets rid of it all. It’s hard to shake that feeling around here. Models did trend a bit North this morning as well.