RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: HRRR makes me believe a giant dry slot will occur. Here is the 00z NAM at that same time. Lets see how it does in later panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:33 AM At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:35 AM 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. Good Trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:36 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:36 AM 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:38 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:38 AM RIC gets above freezing between hr 63 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:39 AM First time I've seen this on any NAM run for this storm. At our 72 a secondary low develops on the border of NC/Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:40 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:40 AM Just now, RIC Airport said: RIC gets above freezing between hr 63 and 72. Then we fall back below freezing for the back end snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:41 AM 30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, I know this is way out in time for the HRRR, but it has the snow at hour 48 (7pm Sunday), moving into the area. This looks like a nice front end Thump coming in on short range mesoscale model. Curious what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:42 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:42 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:43 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Then we fall back below freezing for the back end snow. NAM has been trending colder each run so let’s hope that duration above freezing shrinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:43 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:43 AM 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: This looks like a nice front end Thump coming in on short range mesoscale model. Curious what happens after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:45 AM Best NAM run for us so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:45 AM Onto the Euro!! (Haha-see what I did there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:46 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I was also talking about the HRRR as well. Looks colder then NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM That was the last HRRR frame at hour 48. I'd post the 3K NAM out to hour 60 and really don't want to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM I saw it, ugh, dry slot and thermals are bad to basically DC. . Let’s hope it is a fluke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM In all fairness mesoscales don't come into range for another 24 hours. And I've NEVER found HRRR or SREF to be viable or accurate especially for complicated systems like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:57 AM 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: I saw it, ugh, dry slot and thermals are bad to basically DC. . Let’s hope it is a fluke. More not in good range for 3K than a fluke to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM Just now, wasnow215 said: More not in good range for 3K than a fluke to me. the HRRR looked good but 3k was painful. It is a little early for mesoscale. I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM FWIW ... map from local Lynchburg TV meteorologists 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM Latest ICON 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Latest ICON That's def south right from 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM We will be be ok. At least 2-4 inches 5-6 on the higher end. Unless we get absolutely scrooged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: That's def south right from 18z? Yes! Here was the 18z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: We will be be ok. At least 2-4 inches 5-6 on the higher end. Unless we get absolutely scrooged That’s what I’m thinking as well. We squeeze out 4+” I’m good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Mike Thomas from Fox 5 DC posted the GRAF model. Looked on the colder side, also picks up on the ULL. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1875382706227286149 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Mike Thomas from Fox 5 DC posted the GRAF model. Looked on the colder side, also picks up on the ULL. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1875382706227286149 Gets us 1.8” which is less than I would have thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Gets us 1.8” which is less than I would have thought. Yeah, I just realized he posted the snow map. Seems low to me as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 03:50 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:50 AM End of the ICON with the second storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Saturday at 03:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 AM GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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