RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 Not seeing much change on today's 12Z GFS with respect to the upcoming coastal storm. The rain starts early Sunday morning with the heaviest between about noon and 8pm per this GFS run. The highest winds are along I-95 and east where gusts could exceed 50mph Sunday afternoon and evening. With respect to the shortwave that dives down out of the Midwest behind the main storm, the 12Z GFS has it, but we are too far south and are dry slotted. You can see in the model radar above that snow tries to develop over S MD and the Delmarva, then quickly moves NE and away from us. I also did not see anything encouraging on the 12Z NAM with respect to this feature. But we'll see in the next 24-48 hours if anything changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 50 mph! Batten down the decorations. I am glad I don't do any inflatables, for multiple reasons, but the mortality rate on those suckers could be high if that forecast holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Looking less severe/tornadic for all of us if that off-shore track holds. But that wind! Rarely comes to fruition based on those maps/products, but who knows. I'd bet Hatteras sees 50+, but that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Looking less severe/tornadic for all of us if that off-shore track holds. But that wind! Rarely comes to fruition based on those maps/products, but who knows. I'd bet Hatteras sees 50+, but that's it. @Stormpc, @JB FinsInterestingly, the new 12Z Euro has lighter winds. Only the immediate coastline areas had the 50mph+ gusts. 1-3" precipitation is pretty on par with the GFS though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 The Euro and GFS ensembles have Christmas Day highs in the upper 40s to low 50s on average for most. We have an active southern stream, so at this time, I would not put the chances of precip at zero because the timing of the various impulses may still need to be worked out. There looks to be a winter storm threat at the end of the ens around the 28th, 29th, or 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: There looks to be a winter storm threat at the end of the ens around the 28th, 29th, or 30th. There is definitely a nice signal, @ldub23@Rhino16, @JB Fins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Im still looking for the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Im still looking for the cold air This is obviously a mean, but it looks to me, most places in the state are "cold enough" at the surface as the bulk of the precip moves in the 29th-30th. Obviously too far out there to dive into such details. EDIT: I added the 18Z panels for the 29th. There's some swings, but plenty of time for things to change in a more favorable way I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 The below is copied from NWS Wakefield's afternoon discussion. I was curious to see if they were considering issuing a flood watch, but they specifically say. I bolded sentences I found interesting and confirms a lot of what I mentioned in previous posts, lets me know I'm not off in the left field when I'm reading the models. The main focus of the forecast period remains the aforementioned low pressure from the Gulf that is set to impact the local area starting late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through Monday. Global models continue to come into better agreement with the latest 12z runs continuing to only show minor differences in the track and timing of the low. The model consensus brings the center of the low (still likely in the ~980s mb) up through Eastern North Carolina late Sunday afternoon/evening, eventually tracking the low across far eastern portions (or just offshore) of the FA late Sunday night into Monday morning, before finally pushing NE of the area by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the low, deep moisture streams into the region Sunday-Sunday night, bringing likely moderate to heavy rainfall across the entire area. WPC has the entire area in a Slight ERO for Sunday-Sunday night with urban/poor drainage areas likely having the highest risk to see localized flooding. Ensembles remain quite impressive with storm total rainfall totals, with both the 12z GEFS and EPS QPF means showing a widespread ~2-2.5" of rain. The NBM 50th percentile also continues to show a widespread ~2-3". As previously mentioned, we will also be closely monitoring the high-res guidance as it comes into range the next couple of cycles as there may very well be a localized heavier band of rain NW of the low (due to F- gen). In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will be looking at the potential for very breezy to windy conditions Sunday evening/night, with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible along/near the coast and 30-40 mph further inland, as the low tracks north and deepens. Finally, have introduced a slight chance thunder for much of the eastern half of the area based on some of the latest model soundings, with the best chances of seeing any thunder likely across the far south/southeast (severe weather is still not anticipated locally). High temperatures on Sunday will likely occur late in the day or overnight with highs generally ranging from the mid 50s NW to the mid to upper 60s across the SE. Remaining mild for much of Sunday night, with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s late. Rain chances quickly come to an end from SW to NE through Monday morning as the low pulls off to the NE, with generally dry conditions expected by Monday afternoon (outside of a lingering shower NE). Remaining breezy to windy Monday with W winds likely gusting around 30 to 40 mph inland and 40+ mph along the coast. High temperatures on Monday will generally be in the 50s to around 60 (east). An upper low pivots across the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but confidence is somewhat low that we will be able to squeeze much moisture out of this due to dry westerly flow and based on model soundings. The best chance to see a stray rain/snow shower will be over the MD Eastern Shore and northeastern portions of the FA. Not expecting much in the way of any impacts/accumulation with this activity, but we will continue to monitor the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 00Z NAM has 3.10" of rain falling at RIC. If it's correct, RIC will be at 7.36" of rain for December after this weekend's storm, and it would be the 2nd wettest December on record. The wettest December was in 2009 when 8.16" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 I’ll make my usual numbers tomorrow. I need the practice so I can keep my skills sharp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’ll make my usual numbers tomorrow. I need the practice so I can beat my profs a second time next spring. Ah, I see now. I didn't know you were a met student. Good luck in your studies, I think you've been great so far. The last storm, the higher amounts ended up verifying. In fact, RIC had its wettest December day on record. I would not have seen that coming. The way things are going, this December may surpass 2009 as the wettest. It's amazing how things quickly can change when we activate the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 If the NAM is correct with its more westward track, there may be an increased risk of storms in SE VA and NE NC, @Stormpc. Wakefield alluded to this concern in their earlier discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 FWIW, the 00Z GFS was similar to its recent runs and has the storm track right along the coast, certainly east of NAM's track. Either way, no real change to rainfall, still hefty amounts region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It's getting late in the game and there really still hasn't been a consensus established forecast track. On the coast. Off the coast or inland? I'll always hedge it will take the coastal route but stay pretty close to shore if not slightly inland crossing over or just west of VA beach. Coastal areas can easily withstand 50 to 60 mph gusts. That's most likely so I don't anticipate any issues down this way unless there's some spin-ups. We'll see. At least there's something going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: It's getting late in the game and there really still hasn't been a consensus established forecast track. On the coast. Off the coast or inland? I'll always hedge it will take the coastal route but stay pretty close to shore if not slightly inland crossing over or just west of VA beach. Coastal areas can easily withstand 50 to 60 mph gusts. That's most likely so I don't anticipate any issues down this way unless there's some spin-ups. We'll see. At least there's something going on @Stormpc, it's definitely interesting that models differ this close in. The 12z NAM and HRRR are more inland with the track. HRRR was more along I-95 to just east of Richmond, while the 3k NAM was like a Franklin-Williamsburg-Tappahanock track. NWS Wakefield did a good job highlighting this in their morning AFD and introduced thunder for SE VA and NE NC while issuing a wind advisory for immediate coastal areas. The SPC has a marginal risk basically for all of SE VA. While the global models have essentially come into agreement that the low (~985mb) will track over NE NC and Hampton Roads and continue NNE up the coast Sunday night, the high res models are taking a further inland track. The 00z/16 NAM brings the low just to the W of the I-95 corridor. The 00z/16 HREF brings it on a track even further W than that. However, Sunday night is only just now coming into the reliable range of high-res models, so not quite ready to anticipate a track any further W than the I-95 corridor. In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will be looking at the potential for very breezy to windy conditions Sunday evening/night, with wind gusts 40-50 mph possible along/near the coast and 30-40 mph further inland, as the low tracks north and deepens. As such, will issue Wind Advisories for the Atlantic coastal zones. Additional advisories may be needed along the Chesapeake Bay. Finally, the slight chance of thunder has been maintained as guidance continues to indicate low levels of instability (<300J/kg) in NE NC and SE VA. Given the impressive wind field and large scale forcing, the SPC has expanded the marginal risk into Hampton Roads for the severe wind risk with storms that may develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Flood Watches just issued for along and east of I-95, and a wind advisory for the coastal areas of bay and ocean. Flood Watch National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 MDZ021>025-VAZ064-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-511>523-170315- /O.NEW.KAKQ.FA.A.0009.231217T2100Z-231218T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack- Northampton-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York- Including the cities of Grafton, Healys, Indian Neck, Quinton, Colonial Beach, West Point, Cedar Fork, Lewisetta, Jamaica, Saint Stephens Church, Melfa, Westmoreland, Kennard, Ashland, Severn, Ocean City, Snow Hill, Henley Fork, King And Queen Court House, Barnetts, Harmony Village, Colonial Heights, Dawn, Kiptopeke, New Point, Mechanicsville, Lancaster, Bon Air, Gloucester Point, Leedstown, Chincoteague, Oak Grove, Nesting, Achilles, Brook Vale, Fishermans Island, Roxbury, Beanes Corner, Bottoms Bridge, Plantation, Potomac Beach, Corbin, Maryus, Regina, Talleysville, Ordinary, Naxera, Kilmarnock, Naylors Beach, Midlothian, Williamsburg, Potomac Mills, Richmond, Tappahannock, Wallops Island, Crisfield, Salisbury, Sandy Point, Wayside, Burruss Corner, Cape Charles, Browns Corner, Downing, New Kent Airport, King William, Glass, Cheapside, Sandston, Kiptopeke State Park, Princess Anne, Emmerton, Farnham, Mountcastle, Chester, Biscoe, Ethel, Cambridge, Aylett, Chesterfield, Bavon, New Point Comfort, Dunnsville, Church View, Alfonso, Exmore, Beazley, Cooper, Tabb, Haynesville, Newtown, Lively, Orapax Farms, Owenton, and Peary 201 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland, including the following areas, Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Somerset and Wicomico and Virginia, including the following areas, Accomack, Caroline, Charles City, Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern Essex, Eastern Hanover, Eastern Henrico, Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Gloucester, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, New Kent, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Western Chesterfield, Western Essex, Western Hanover, Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond), Western King William, Western King and Queen, Westmoreland and York. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A strong area of low pressure tracks north near the coast Sunday into early Monday bringing moderate to heavy rain into the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Widespread two to three inches of rain is expected. Localized amounts up to four inches are possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ RMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Below are maps from today's 12Z Euro model projecting temperatures Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EST. It's looking like Tuesday will be the coldest day under full sunshine that we've seen since November 29th. High temperatures may struggle to reach the lower 40s, and by Wednesday morning, we may see widespread lower 20s for inland areas. AKQ is going with a low of 22°F and 29°F for Richmond and Norfolk, respectively. Interestingly, the Norfolk Airport reached the 20s for the first time this winter yesterday morning. Obviously nothing historic for December, but notable for our young winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Pretty much all guidance now is offshore with the center of the low passing over or east of OBX. Some have it going through the Albemarle sound and out through Virginia beach. Precip max shifting east as well. Looks like we're starting to see some consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: Pretty much all guidance now is offshore with the center of the low passing over or east of OBX. Some have it going through the Albemarle sound and out through Virginia beach. Precip max shifting east as well. Looks like we're starting to see some consensus. Yeah, the jackpots is definitely is. Places like Blacksburg have really dropped in totals on the models, @Rhino16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 The below animation shows that the worst of the rain will be between 6pm and midnight. This is the 1-hour totals for the storm from about 10am Sunday to 10am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, the jackpots is definitely is. Places like Blacksburg have really dropped in totals on the models, @Rhino16. Well I’m back for break, so it will be fun to watch the deluge. Forgot to make numbers thanks to the drive… they will come momentarily. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 00Z GFS has the heaviest totals right along I-95 and puts down 4.94" at Richmond. There's still generally 2 to 3" inches for Hampton Roads and NE NC and lighter amounts from about US Hwy 15 and points west. These are very impressive amounts. Sunday's daily rainfall record of 1.78" set in 1918 for Richmond is definitely in jeopardy. The daily record for Norfolk is 1.42" set in 1932. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Not doing temperatures because I’m exhausted, and the rainfall is hard enough… my rainfall guesses are: Sunday: 2.41” Monday: 0.55 For a total of 2.96. Maybe for a high end I’d say 3.25” total, but I’d have to revisit tomorrow. If the GFS is picking up on something with that location, that would be something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Here we go! Precip shield moving into area. Somehow the ground was saturated and everything wet even without any rain showers this morning so we know we're dealing with some juice. Wind gusting to 46 last hour at Hilton head. Harbinger of things to come. Let's see if anyone can get a gust over 60 later this evening. 55/55 light rain has begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: Here we go! Precip shield moving into area. Somehow the ground was saturated and everything wet even without any rain showers this morning so we know we're dealing with some juice. Wind gusting to 46 last hour at Hilton head. Harbinger of things to come. Let's see if anyone can get a gust over 60 later this evening. 55/55 light rain has begun. Yup, here it comes! Definitely going to be an interesting storm to track given how the models were fluctuating so much with the track and where the highest rains will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Winds gusting mid 50s over Hatteras this past hour. Just now getting breezy up here further up coast, still only 20's but it's going downhill. Already near .5 in so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 As of 6pm, Norfolk had received 1.15" of rain, while Richmond was at 0.56" as the heaviest rain was just starting to move in. Also, Wakefield issued a flood advisory for parts of the Richmond area in the last 15 minutes. Flood Advisory National Weather Service Wakefield VA 558 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 VAC041-053-085-087-149-570-670-730-760-180200- /O.NEW.KAKQ.FA.Y.0120.231217T2258Z-231218T0200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Chesterfield VA-Dinwiddie VA-Hanover VA-Henrico VA-Prince George VA-City of Colonial Heights VA-City of Hopewell VA-City of Petersburg VA-City of Richmond VA- 558 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Virginia, including the following counties and independent cities, in central Virginia, Chesterfield, City of Colonial Heights, City of Richmond, Hanover and Henrico. In south central Virginia, City of Hopewell, City of Petersburg, Dinwiddie and Prince George. * WHEN...Until 900 PM EST. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas and ponding of water on area roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 558 PM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Richmond, Petersburg, Hopewell, Colonial Heights, Ashland, Chester, Downtown Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Union University, University Of Richmond, Bon Air, Highland Springs, Tuckahoe, Virginia State University, Mechanicsville, Fort Gregg-Adams, Prince George, Bensley, Bellwood and Chesterfield Court House. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 About to cross 1” at RIC. Is that band thing moving east at all or just north? Looks like RIC is just outside of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: About to cross 1” at RIC. Is that band thing moving east at all or just north? Looks like RIC is just outside of it. Looks like that band will begin moving east as the storm tracks up the coast. At least that’s the way it appears now. Looks like RIC is at 1.14” storm total at 7pm. 0.58" fell in the last hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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