Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

58 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12Z Euro has the coastal slightly east of its last 1-2 runs. Widespread 1-3" of rain.

It also has a 2nd low and tries to bring precip with it and perhaps it's cold enough for snow I-95 and west? It's something to watch in the coming days. 

Euro forms a second low on the heels of the big coastal. It throws moisture westward where it might be cold enough in parts of the Piedmont for snow Tuesday morning, @Rhino16, @snowchill, @JB Fins, @ldub23.

I think this was what the Icon was trying to do.

 

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Euro forms a second low on the heels of the big coastal. It throws moisture westward where it might be cold enough in parts of the Piedmont for snow Tuesday morning, @Rhino16, @snowchill, @JB Fins, @ldub23.

I think this was what the Icon was trying to do.

 

 

Euro very  close to the  ICON

[RIC Airport]

14 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro very  close to the  ICON

@ldub23a few ensemble members supports something. 

Ensemble member 12, the snowiest member, looked interesting, but unlikely to happen. 

[RIC Airport]

Ensemble Member 12 looks interesting, but unlikely to happen unfortunately. 

 

[ldub23]

13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Ensemble Member 12 looks interesting, but unlikely to happen unfortunately. 

 

Better than last winters wall to wall heat. Even when the  3 day cold came there was  no chance  of snow.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Better than last winters wall to wall heat. Even when the  3 day cold came there was  no chance  of snow.

We won't be shut out like that two years in a row. 

Anyway, the 18Z GFS tracked the coastal a bit farther westward than 12z. The worst of the winds is roughly US Hwy 15 and east.

 

It has a 2nd shortwave, but it doesn't do much for us, certainly nothing like the ICON and Euro had.

 

[RIC Airport]

The 00z GFS has the heaviest rain in the western Piedmont along US Hwy 15/29, but still maintains widespread 1-3" of rain elsewhere. The highest wind gusts look to be Sunday evening with the worst this run for I-95 and points east. 

 

The GFS has that second shortwave diving out of the Midwest behind the main storm that could bring additional showers or light snow especially for the far western mountains late Monday evening into Tuesday morning, but precip looks very spotty east of the mountains. 

 

The NAM comes within range starting Friday at 12Z. It was consistent from the very beginning with the last storm on the idea of rain ending as snow so it will be interesting to see what the short range models do this go around. Earlier today, the ICON and the Euro hinted at the idea of snow (at least for some parts of the state) with that 2nd shortwave Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Not seeing much change on today's 12Z GFS with respect to the upcoming coastal storm. The rain starts early Sunday morning with the heaviest between about noon and 8pm per this GFS run. The highest winds are along I-95 and east where gusts could exceed 50mph Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

With respect to the shortwave that dives down out of the Midwest behind the main storm, the 12Z GFS has it, but we are too far south and are dry slotted. You can see in the model radar above that snow tries to develop over S MD and the Delmarva, then quickly moves NE and away from us. I also did not see anything encouraging on the 12Z NAM with respect to this feature. But we'll see in the next 24-48 hours if anything changes. 

 

 

 

 

[JB Fins]

50 mph!  Batten down the decorations.  I am glad I don't do any inflatables, for multiple reasons, but the mortality rate on those suckers could be high if that forecast holds.

[Stormpc]

Looking less severe/tornadic for all of us if that off-shore track holds. But that wind! Rarely comes to fruition based on those maps/products, but who knows. I'd bet Hatteras sees 50+, but that's it. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Looking less severe/tornadic for all of us if that off-shore track holds. But that wind! Rarely comes to fruition based on those maps/products, but who knows. I'd bet Hatteras sees 50+, but that's it. 

 

 

@Stormpc, @JB FinsInterestingly, the new 12Z Euro has lighter winds. Only the immediate coastline areas had the 50mph+ gusts. 

1-3" precipitation is pretty on par with the GFS though.

[RIC Airport]

The Euro and GFS ensembles have Christmas Day highs in the upper 40s to low 50s on average for most. We have an active southern stream, so at this time, I would not put the chances of precip at zero because the timing of the various impulses may still need to be worked out.

There looks to be a winter storm threat at the end of the ens around the 28th, 29th, or 30th.

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

There looks to be a winter storm threat at the end of the ens around the 28th, 29th, or 30th.

There is definitely a nice signal, @ldub23@Rhino16, @JB Fins.

 

[ldub23]

Im still looking  for the  cold air

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im still looking  for the  cold air

This is obviously a mean, but it looks to me, most places in the state are "cold enough" at the surface as the bulk of the precip moves in the 29th-30th. Obviously too far out there to dive into such details. 

EDIT: I added the 18Z panels for the 29th. There's some swings, but plenty of time for things to change in a more favorable way I guess. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The below is copied from NWS Wakefield's afternoon discussion. I was curious to see if they were considering issuing a flood watch, but they specifically say. I bolded sentences I found interesting and confirms a lot of what I mentioned in previous posts, lets me know I'm not off in the left field when I'm reading the models. 

The main focus of the forecast period remains the aforementioned low
pressure from the Gulf that is set to impact the local area starting
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through Monday. Global
models continue to come into better agreement with the latest 12z
runs continuing to only show minor differences in the track and
timing of the low. The model consensus brings the center of the low
(still likely in the ~980s mb) up through Eastern North Carolina
late Sunday afternoon/evening, eventually tracking the low across
far eastern portions (or just offshore) of the FA late Sunday night
into Monday morning, before finally pushing NE of the area by Monday
afternoon. Ahead of the low, deep moisture streams into the region
Sunday-Sunday night, bringing likely moderate to heavy rainfall
across the entire area. WPC has the entire area in a Slight ERO for
Sunday-Sunday night with urban/poor drainage areas likely having the
highest risk to see localized flooding. Ensembles remain quite
impressive with storm total rainfall totals, with both the 12z GEFS
and EPS QPF means showing a widespread ~2-2.5" of rain. The NBM 50th
percentile also continues to show a widespread ~2-3". As previously
mentioned, we will also be closely monitoring the high-res guidance
as it comes into range the next couple of cycles as there may very
well be a localized heavier band of rain NW of the low (due to F-
gen). In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will be looking at
the potential for very breezy to windy conditions Sunday
evening/night, with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible
along/near the coast and 30-40 mph further inland, as the low tracks
north and deepens. Finally, have introduced a slight chance thunder
for much of the eastern half of the area based on some of the latest
model soundings, with the best chances of seeing any thunder likely
across the far south/southeast (severe weather is still not
anticipated locally). High temperatures on Sunday will likely occur
late in the day or overnight with highs generally ranging from the
mid 50s NW to the mid to upper 60s across the SE. Remaining mild for
much of Sunday night, with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s to
lower 50s late.

Rain chances quickly come to an end from SW to NE through Monday
morning as the low pulls off to the NE, with generally dry
conditions expected by Monday afternoon (outside of a lingering
shower NE). Remaining breezy to windy Monday with W winds likely
gusting around 30 to 40 mph inland and 40+ mph along the coast. High
temperatures on Monday will generally be in the 50s to around 60
(east). An upper low pivots across the region late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning, but confidence is somewhat low that we will
be able to squeeze much moisture out of this due to dry westerly
flow and based on model soundings. The best chance to see a stray
rain/snow shower will be over the MD Eastern Shore and northeastern
portions of the FA. Not expecting much in the way of any
impacts/accumulation with this activity, but we will continue to
monitor the trends.

[RIC Airport]

00Z NAM has 3.10" of rain falling at RIC. If it's correct, RIC will be at 7.36" of rain for December after this weekend's storm, and it would be the 2nd wettest December on record. The wettest December was in 2009 when 8.16" fell. 

[Rhino16]

I’ll make my usual numbers tomorrow. I need the practice so I can keep my skills sharp.

[RIC Airport]

21 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’ll make my usual numbers tomorrow. I need the practice so I can beat my profs a second time next spring.

Ah, I see now. I didn't know you were a met student. Good luck in your studies, I think you've been great so far.

The last storm, the higher amounts ended up verifying. In fact, RIC had its wettest December day on record. I would not have seen that coming. The way things are going, this December may surpass 2009 as the wettest. It's amazing how things quickly can change when we activate the southern stream.

[RIC Airport]

If the NAM is correct with its more westward track, there may be an increased risk of storms in SE VA and NE NC, @Stormpc. Wakefield alluded to this concern in their earlier discussion. 

[RIC Airport]

FWIW, the 00Z GFS was similar to its recent runs and has the storm track right along the coast, certainly east of NAM's track. Either way, no real change to rainfall, still hefty amounts region wide. 

[Stormpc]

It's getting late in the game and there really still hasn't been a consensus established forecast track. On the coast. Off the coast or inland? I'll always hedge it will take the coastal route but stay pretty close to shore if not slightly inland crossing over or just west of VA beach.  Coastal areas can easily withstand 50 to 60 mph gusts. That's most likely so I don't anticipate any issues down this way unless there's some spin-ups. We'll see. At least there's something going on

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, Stormpc said:

It's getting late in the game and there really still hasn't been a consensus established forecast track. On the coast. Off the coast or inland? I'll always hedge it will take the coastal route but stay pretty close to shore if not slightly inland crossing over or just west of VA beach.  Coastal areas can easily withstand 50 to 60 mph gusts. That's most likely so I don't anticipate any issues down this way unless there's some spin-ups. We'll see. At least there's something going on

@Stormpc, it's definitely interesting that models differ this close in.

The 12z NAM and HRRR are more inland with the track. HRRR was more along I-95 to just east of Richmond, while the 3k NAM was like a Franklin-Williamsburg-Tappahanock track.

 

NWS Wakefield did a good job highlighting this in their morning AFD and introduced thunder for SE VA and NE NC while issuing a wind advisory for immediate coastal areas. The SPC has a marginal risk basically for all of SE VA.

While the global models have essentially come into agreement that the low (~985mb)
will track over NE NC and Hampton Roads and continue NNE up the
coast Sunday night, the high res models are taking a further inland
track. The 00z/16 NAM brings the low just to the W of the I-95
corridor. The 00z/16 HREF brings it on a track even further W than
that. However, Sunday night is only just now coming into the
reliable range of high-res models, so not quite ready to anticipate
a track any further W than the I-95 corridor. 

In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will be looking at the
potential for very breezy to windy conditions Sunday evening/night,
with wind gusts 40-50 mph possible along/near the coast and 30-40
mph further inland, as the low tracks north and deepens. As such,
will issue Wind Advisories for the Atlantic coastal zones.
Additional advisories may be needed along the Chesapeake Bay.
Finally, the slight chance of thunder has been maintained as
guidance continues to indicate low levels of instability (<300J/kg)
in NE NC and SE VA. Given the impressive wind field and large scale
forcing, the SPC has expanded the marginal risk into Hampton Roads
for the severe wind risk with storms that may develop.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Flood Watches just issued for along and east of I-95, and a wind advisory for the coastal areas of bay and ocean. 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
201 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

MDZ021>025-VAZ064-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-511>523-170315-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FA.A.0009.231217T2100Z-231218T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles
City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack-
Northampton-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Western King
William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King
and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-
Including the cities of Grafton, Healys, Indian Neck, Quinton,
Colonial Beach, West Point, Cedar Fork, Lewisetta, Jamaica, Saint
Stephens Church, Melfa, Westmoreland, Kennard, Ashland, Severn,
Ocean City, Snow Hill, Henley Fork, King And Queen Court House,
Barnetts, Harmony Village, Colonial Heights, Dawn, Kiptopeke, New
Point, Mechanicsville, Lancaster, Bon Air, Gloucester Point,
Leedstown, Chincoteague, Oak Grove, Nesting, Achilles, Brook
Vale, Fishermans Island, Roxbury, Beanes Corner, Bottoms Bridge,
Plantation, Potomac Beach, Corbin, Maryus, Regina, Talleysville,
Ordinary, Naxera, Kilmarnock, Naylors Beach, Midlothian,
Williamsburg, Potomac Mills, Richmond, Tappahannock, Wallops
Island, Crisfield, Salisbury, Sandy Point, Wayside, Burruss
Corner, Cape Charles, Browns Corner, Downing, New Kent Airport,
King William, Glass, Cheapside, Sandston, Kiptopeke State Park,
Princess Anne, Emmerton, Farnham, Mountcastle, Chester, Biscoe,
Ethel, Cambridge, Aylett, Chesterfield, Bavon, New Point Comfort,
Dunnsville, Church View, Alfonso, Exmore, Beazley, Cooper, Tabb,
Haynesville, Newtown, Lively, Orapax Farms, Owenton, and Peary
201 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland, including the following
  areas, Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Somerset
  and Wicomico and Virginia, including the following areas,
  Accomack, Caroline, Charles City, Eastern Chesterfield (Including
  Col. Heights), Eastern Essex, Eastern Hanover, Eastern Henrico,
  Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Gloucester, James
  City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, New Kent, Northampton,
  Northumberland, Richmond, Western Chesterfield, Western Essex,
  Western Hanover, Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond),
  Western King William, Western King and Queen, Westmoreland and
  York.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A strong area of low pressure tracks north near the coast
    Sunday into early Monday bringing moderate to heavy rain into
    the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
    Widespread two to three inches of rain is expected. Localized
    amounts up to four inches are possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RMM

[RIC Airport]

Below are maps from today's 12Z Euro model projecting temperatures Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EST.  It's looking like Tuesday will be the coldest day under full sunshine that we've seen since November 29th. High temperatures may struggle to reach the lower 40s, and by Wednesday morning, we may see widespread lower 20s for inland areas. AKQ is going with a low of 22°F and 29°F for Richmond and Norfolk, respectively. Interestingly, the Norfolk Airport reached the 20s for the first time this winter yesterday morning.

Obviously nothing historic for December, but notable for our young winter. 

[Stormpc]

Pretty much all guidance now is offshore with the center of the low passing over or east of OBX. Some have it going through the Albemarle sound and out through Virginia beach.  Precip max shifting east as well.  Looks like we're starting to see some consensus. 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Pretty much all guidance now is offshore with the center of the low passing over or east of OBX. Some have it going through the Albemarle sound and out through Virginia beach.  Precip max shifting east as well.  Looks like we're starting to see some consensus. 

Yeah, the jackpots is definitely is. Places like Blacksburg have really dropped in totals on the models, @Rhino16.

[RIC Airport]

The below animation shows that the worst of the rain will be between 6pm and midnight.

This is the 1-hour totals for the storm from about 10am Sunday to 10am Monday.

[Rhino16]

33 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, the jackpots is definitely is. Places like Blacksburg have really dropped in totals on the models, @Rhino16.

Well I’m back for break, so it will be fun to watch the deluge. Forgot to make numbers thanks to the drive… they will come momentarily.

[RIC Airport]

00Z GFS has the heaviest totals right along I-95 and puts down 4.94" at Richmond. There's still generally 2 to 3" inches for Hampton Roads and NE NC and lighter amounts from about US Hwy 15 and points west. 

These are very impressive amounts. Sunday's daily rainfall record of 1.78" set in 1918 for Richmond is definitely in jeopardy. The daily record for Norfolk is 1.42" set in 1932.