RIC Airport Posted Friday at 03:07 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:07 AM 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I think it's possible, but CAD may not be enough to help us at the 850mb level. If anything, CAD could cause us to never rise above freezing at the surface preventing us from turning to rain. @Conway7305, at hour 84, even at 925mb, it's close to or slightly above freezing. This suggests that in later frames, the cold is continuing to get scoured out closer to the surface, so we will probably eventually flip. But, hard to really say, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 03:14 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:14 AM 00z ICON, fwiw was worse for NoVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM oh heyyyy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Friday at 05:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:03 AM 4 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: oh heyyyy That’s just cruel… (but please… make it happen) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Friday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:09 AM 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: That’s just cruel… (but please… make it happen) lol. Looks like it amps the confluence and weakens the vort at the perfect time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:35 AM 0z Euro south! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Friday at 05:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 AM Wow. The 0z Euro is way south also with the 3" line in Petersburg. We have the A team of Euro/UK vs GFS/ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Looks like pieces of confluence are working their magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Friday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 AM I may get some sleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Friday at 05:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:51 AM 0z Euro waay south. Not sure I’m buying it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted Friday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 AM 6z Euro Souther again… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Friday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:36 AM Wow, may have to go to main thread and witness the classic meltdown, Ji posts a plenty. However, this seems to be following our script to a T, bullseye 7 days out, trend north leaving us with a slurpee forecast, then teaser tick south only to jackpot them again in the end. But with what has been posted, insert The Godfather III gif here of pulling me back in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Friday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:41 AM 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted Friday at 12:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:01 PM Wow, may have to go to main thread and witness the classic meltdown, Ji posts a plenty. However, this seems to be following our script to a T, bullseye 7 days out, trend north leaving us with a slurpee forecast, then teaser tick south only to jackpot them again in the end. But with what has been posted, insert The Godfather III gif here of pulling me back in.Is it a teaser? Seems to me like the GFS is largely on its own from what little I’ve looked around, but I also haven’t been following along super closely. Don’t wanna get my hopes dashed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Friday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:28 PM 25 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: Is it a teaser? Seems to me like the GFS is largely on its own from what little I’ve looked around, but I also haven’t been following along super closely. Don’t wanna get my hopes dashed. . I can’t say for sure, not nearly as versed as Midlo and RIC at reading models but yeah, taking the same “don’t go breaking me heart” approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:28 PM 51 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Wow, may have to go to main thread and witness the classic meltdown, Ji posts a plenty. However, this seems to be following our script to a T, bullseye 7 days out, trend north leaving us with a slurpee forecast, then teaser tick south only to jackpot them again in the end. But with what has been posted, insert The Godfather III gif here of pulling me back in. "I thought I was out...." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 12:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:28 PM Definitely a south trend on the Euro and the EPS. 6z EPS 00z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:30 PM Just now, RIC Airport said: Definitely a south trend on the Euro and the EPS. 6z EPS 00z EPS CAD seems to be showing up more and more. Let's see if 12z GFS Follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 12:34 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:34 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: CAD seems to be showing up more and more. Let's see if 12z GFS Follows Slower storm seems to make a difference. 6z euro looks slower and slightly weaker low. Less warm air advection and coming in overnight instead of the afternoon. GFS has stuff in by 21z and the low is stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:43 PM The NAM looked terrible. Even DC gets the shaft. After a front end thump. However, can we rely on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:03 PM 19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The NAM looked terrible. Even DC gets the shaft. After a front end thump. However, can we rely on the NAM? Mostly sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:56 PM NAM 12z is a huge ice storm for us. Don't want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: NAM 12z is a huge ice storm for us. Don't want that NAM did tic south though from 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Friday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:16 PM 15 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: NAM did tic south though from 06z It is interesting. The 12z NAM came south. The 12z ICON came further south. Could be a trend. Let's see what the more popular models do today with midday runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Friday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:30 PM Anyone who knows anything about the winter weather here, knows that it really takes almost the perfect storm to avoid any mixing in this area & not to be dry slotted at some point. (Even the good storms here get some mixing precipitation for a period of time) how long each will last is key.. We definitely need even more of a southern trend & the cold air to stay in place to avoid the major mixing here … Meaning more snow & then sleet vs Less rain, freezing rain, sleet&snow… I be more worried about the dreaded “sleet storm”here for hrs & hrs here at the moment but it’s still too early to jump on any one conclusion .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:49 PM 1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said: It is interesting. The 12z NAM came south. The 12z ICON came further south. Could be a trend. Let's see what the more popular models do today with midday runs. Oh it's a trend for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 PM 12z GFS didn’t shift that much however there’s a front end thumb and back end thump. Should help totals some. Also, did anybody see the storm GFS is showing for the 12th? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 PM UKMET is beautiful - south of 00z. R/S line south of Richmond the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Friday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 PM Salt solution being put down on broad st/ short pump area already fwiw not sure if it’s just to get it down before the weekend rush but seems a bit early to be doing this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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