wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 moving on! Do you see what the GFS is bringing us nine days from now? Let's go! Time to track the next one! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1-2 inches before some crazy ice is completely possible. Look at the 18z euro. Tick south 25-30 miles we’re in a small event situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: moving on! Do you see what the GFS is bringing us nine days from now? Let's go! Time to track the next one! Yep! And it’s a Miller A storm which works out better for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 8 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone see how much freezing rain GFS just gave us?? @RIC Airport? You still with us? Lol No, I had to take a step back after seeing the trends. It looks like another NoVa special. It seems like it always happens now. 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024 and now 1/6/2025. I may periodically check, but I am not putting in as much tracking effort on the next threat until we get within 4 to 5 days. The models can't decide whether it's on or off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 No point in even watching behind 4-5 days out. RIC is right. Maybe time for a break for all of us unless something is consistent within 72 hours. Don’t even go on the main thread, they don’t care about us down here. I saw someone here asked for ice maps earlier and they blatantly ignored the request because well we’re not in their area. We deserve snow but it just gets awfully hard to keep watching when the same results happen again and again. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z Euro ensembles pretty robust for Sun/Mon folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, RVAman said: I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. We are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We are great I was just offering a quick group chat option. I know a lot of yall have been here for years. Not taking that away from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 39 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro ensembles pretty robust for Sun/Mon folks. The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, RVAman said: I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. I don't know why people like camping out in there. All the good mets often have their posts drowned by the nonsense. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 39 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time. 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: That's the spirit! FWIW, the 00z run of the NBM model seems to follow this theme. It was explained to me that it includes models from previous cycles, which may cause it to lag if the deterministic models are changing drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. The 00z NAM was pretty far north with the mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lots of frozen for us! Will take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00z NAM was pretty far north with the mixing. We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Will accumulate maybe an inch or two before changeover to sleet then ice. Storm isn’t over at hour 84. Looks life you want all snow will need to drive to Mason Dixon line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Lots of frozen for us! Will take 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Just now, Conway7305 said: Will accumulate maybe an inch or two before changeover to sleet then ice. Storm isn’t over at hour 84. There is maybe a 2-3 hour window of snow so that warm air intrusion aloft is coming in pretty fast. Also, since it only goes out to hour 84, it is hard to tell if/when we eventually flip to rain. Of course, everything is subject to further fluctuation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: There is maybe a 2-3 hour window of snow so that warm air intrusion aloft is coming in pretty fast. Also, since it only goes out to hour 84, it is hard to tell if/when we eventually flip to rain. Of course, everything is subject to further fluctuation. Any chance cold air damming can keep it snowing longer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Any chance cold air damming can keep it snowing longer? I think it's possible, but CAD may not be enough to help us at the 850mb level. If anything, CAD could cause us to never rise above freezing at the surface preventing us from turning to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I think it's possible, but CAD may not be enough to help us at the 850mb level. If anything, CAD could cause us to never rise above freezing at the surface preventing us from turning to rain. @Conway7305, at hour 84, even at 925mb, it's close to or slightly above freezing. This suggests that in later frames, the cold is continuing to get scoured out closer to the surface, so we will probably eventually flip. But, hard to really say, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 00z ICON, fwiw was worse for NoVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 oh heyyyy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: oh heyyyy That’s just cruel… (but please… make it happen) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: That’s just cruel… (but please… make it happen) lol. Looks like it amps the confluence and weakens the vort at the perfect time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 0z Euro south! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wow. The 0z Euro is way south also with the 3" line in Petersburg. We have the A team of Euro/UK vs GFS/ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like pieces of confluence are working their magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I may get some sleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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