wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I mean I think we know the drill around these parts. Everyone will start as snow. Then slowly transition over to ice-first down around RIC then up 95 through Ashland then up to Caroline. Louisa/Fluvanna/Caroline are the last spots to change over to sleet/freezing rain. I do think that we all start out with a decent thump then change over. Miller B's are notorious for that around here. The models will drive you crazy no doubt. "The drill" is perfectly fine. The flip flopping of models even as we are now just a little over 72 hours from actual precip is annoying that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: "The drill" is perfectly fine. The flip flopping of models even as we are now just a little over 72 hours from actual precip is annoying that's all. I agree completely. It is the block and confluence that has us up in arms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Anyone see how much freezing rain GFS just gave us?? @RIC Airport? You still with us? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Latest GFS ensemble members are not good for us for Sunday/Monday Hard to believe just days ago, most all the ensemble models and were showing WSW criteria for RVA. Thats why I hate Miller B storms. They are typically unpredictable and usually have mixing issues. The pattern setting up after this storm is cold and dry until around 16th of January. Hopefully during the relaxation period mid Jan we can score. GFS fantasy show a gulf storm 300 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Latest GFS ensemble members are not good for us for Sunday/Monday Hard to believe just days ago, most all the ensemble models and were showing WSW criteria for RVA. Thats why I hate Miller B storms. They are typically unpredictable and usually have mixing issues. The pattern setting up after this storm is cold and dry until around 16th of January. Hopefully during the relaxation period mid Jan we can score. GFS fantasy show a gulf storm 300 hr Miller B systems rarely if ever produce good snows at our latitude. Sure we can mix quite a bit, but it all depends on the transfer. If the transfer is far enough south, VA can cash in, but with it looking to move further north, we will quickly change from snow to ice and in a lot of cases, plain rain. we are just too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Thursday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:03 PM 4 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM I’m noticing that the snowiest solution over the past few days seems to have the low further south over Oklahoma, instead of further south/west over the Texas Panhandle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:15 PM Nice rain storm on the GFS… Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted Thursday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:27 PM I confess to snowdenfreude. If my area isn't going to get snow then those who always dump on other areas shouldn't get as much snow as them, so sad. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:55 PM moving on! Do you see what the GFS is bringing us nine days from now? Let's go! Time to track the next one! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Thursday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:57 PM 1-2 inches before some crazy ice is completely possible. Look at the 18z euro. Tick south 25-30 miles we’re in a small event situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:05 AM 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: moving on! Do you see what the GFS is bringing us nine days from now? Let's go! Time to track the next one! Yep! And it’s a Miller A storm which works out better for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 12:27 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:27 AM 8 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone see how much freezing rain GFS just gave us?? @RIC Airport? You still with us? Lol No, I had to take a step back after seeing the trends. It looks like another NoVa special. It seems like it always happens now. 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024 and now 1/6/2025. I may periodically check, but I am not putting in as much tracking effort on the next threat until we get within 4 to 5 days. The models can't decide whether it's on or off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Friday at 01:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:06 AM No point in even watching behind 4-5 days out. RIC is right. Maybe time for a break for all of us unless something is consistent within 72 hours. Don’t even go on the main thread, they don’t care about us down here. I saw someone here asked for ice maps earlier and they blatantly ignored the request because well we’re not in their area. We deserve snow but it just gets awfully hard to keep watching when the same results happen again and again. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 01:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:09 AM 18z Euro ensembles pretty robust for Sun/Mon folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Friday at 01:20 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:20 AM I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Friday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:21 AM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. We are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Friday at 01:26 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:26 AM Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Friday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:31 AM 8 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We are great I was just offering a quick group chat option. I know a lot of yall have been here for years. Not taking that away from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 01:42 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:42 AM 39 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro ensembles pretty robust for Sun/Mon folks. The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 01:43 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:43 AM 22 minutes ago, RVAman said: I left this board for the main reason that the “mid Atlantic” thread is solely about MD and NOVA. God forbid we mention central VA. If anyone has telegram or WhatsApp we can make a group chat specifically for this area. I don't know why people like camping out in there. All the good mets often have their posts drowned by the nonsense. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:03 AM 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 02:08 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:08 AM 39 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time. 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: That's the spirit! FWIW, the 00z run of the NBM model seems to follow this theme. It was explained to me that it includes models from previous cycles, which may cause it to lag if the deterministic models are changing drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 02:44 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:44 AM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling. The 00z NAM was pretty far north with the mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 AM Lots of frozen for us! Will take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Friday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:49 AM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00z NAM was pretty far north with the mixing. We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:54 AM 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Will accumulate maybe an inch or two before changeover to sleet then ice. Storm isn’t over at hour 84. Looks life you want all snow will need to drive to Mason Dixon line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 02:55 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:55 AM 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Lots of frozen for us! Will take 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We get a few hours of snow for sure on this NAM run Just now, Conway7305 said: Will accumulate maybe an inch or two before changeover to sleet then ice. Storm isn’t over at hour 84. There is maybe a 2-3 hour window of snow so that warm air intrusion aloft is coming in pretty fast. Also, since it only goes out to hour 84, it is hard to tell if/when we eventually flip to rain. Of course, everything is subject to further fluctuation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Friday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:58 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: There is maybe a 2-3 hour window of snow so that warm air intrusion aloft is coming in pretty fast. Also, since it only goes out to hour 84, it is hard to tell if/when we eventually flip to rain. Of course, everything is subject to further fluctuation. Any chance cold air damming can keep it snowing longer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Friday at 03:02 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:02 AM 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Any chance cold air damming can keep it snowing longer? I think it's possible, but CAD may not be enough to help us at the 850mb level. If anything, CAD could cause us to never rise above freezing at the surface preventing us from turning to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now