RVAman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in Richmond. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Welp the 18z euro takes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in Richmond. edit: apparently you can only comment once in awhile now? Those on the main thread have so much hate for Central VA for no reason. No wonder we made our own thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is the outlier. Not buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, RVAman said: Euro is the outlier. Not buying it yet. It's crazy how for 4 straight runs the euro shows same solution basically and other models trend to you. Now 18z does this. We turn over to rain even up here in Caroline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: It's crazy how for 4 straight runs the euro shows same solution basically and other models trend to you. Now 18z does this. We turn over to rain even up here in Caroline. Sadly I feel like this threat is over. Maybe I’m crying chicken little but when the euro does this it’s always over. Maybe the 0z will change my mind. Gotta love central VA and its climate at this point. edit: this was extreme. I’m moving to Florida next January and I just want my son to experience what I experienced in the 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: Sadly I feel like this threat is over. Maybe I’m crying chicken little but when the euro does this it’s always over. Maybe the 0z will change my mind. Gotta love central VA and its climate at this point. Again, the data out in the ocean isn’t really there to be fed into the models at this point. Once the energy gets over land and the models have that information down, then I’ll throw in the towel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Models have been flipping around. Too early to call a bust. Icon, Gfs UKIe all looked good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Again, the data out in the ocean isn’t really there to be fed into the models at this point. Once the energy gets over land and the models have that information down, then I’ll throw in the towel. I think some of the frustrating part is you would think after all these years model data would be getting much much better. Especially with all the advancements we've made in the tech world The truth is even with the European model and definitely with the GFS and the others nothing is a safe bet outside of 48 hours or even close to a safe bet. of course people out there will always correct me and tell me I'm wrong about the weather models and how much better they are than 30 years ago lol. And they better be better than 30 years ago and they are. But there's still a lot of uncertainty that in my opinion just shouldn't be as much. We are less than four days away from precipitation starting in our area and we're still seeing hundred mile swings? Come on man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think some of the frustrating part is you would think after all these years model data would be getting much much better. Especially with all the advancements we've made in the tech world The truth is even with the European model and definitely with the GFS and the others nothing is a safe bet outside of 48 hours or even close to a safe bet. of course people out there will always correct me and tell me I'm wrong about the weather models and how much better they are than 30 years ago lol. And they better be better than 30 years ago and they are. But there's still a lot of uncertainty that in my opinion just shouldn't be as much. We are less than four days away from precipitation starting in our area and we're still seeing hundred mile swings? Come on man They’re only as good as the data we put in. We’re launching the same 2 weather balloons per day, and it’s the vertical data that’s tricky. I can absolutely see why the uncertainty is as high as it is at times even today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z AIFS is a step up for precip amounts, with ≈0.8” for the richmond area, but the resolution is bad so can’t comment on temperatures, ptype, or much really. Especially without soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: 18z AIFS is a step up for precip amounts, with ≈0.8” for the richmond area, but the resolution is bad so can’t comment on temperatures, ptype, or much really. Especially without soundings. Seems like between hour 114 and 120 is iffy for RIC with the the 0°C line being close by and advancing just north of the city. Surface temps are around freezing, but can't tell whether this run gets RIC above freezing at the surface or not. It's close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Let's hope we don't lose the GFS completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 24 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Let's hope we don't lose the GFS completely. We did - it's going to be heaviest DC north. Verbatim - it's mostly an ice event in Central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: We did - it's going to be heaviest DC north. Verbatim - it's mostly an ice event in Central VA. Still couple inches of snow first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yep, GFS Faltered Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if DC got shafted out of the snow zone by Monday. This storm is going north. Eric Webber on X has a good explanation why it’s trending north. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?s=46 What a drag. My guess is we get a few flakes at beginning then straight to ice/sleet to rain 0 accumulation except for sleet :/…ugh. On the flip side, if this storm does end up cutting further north then it might help storm #2 come up coast more. Our area historically never does very well with complicated Miller B setups like the storm on Monday. The Miller A storms that ride up the coast are what usually produces for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Yep, GFS Faltered Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if DC got shafted out of the snow zone by Monday. This storm is going north. Eric Webber on X has a good explanation why it’s trending north. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?s=46 What a drag. My guess is we get a few flakes at beginning then straight to ice/sleet to rain 0 accumulation except for sleet :/…ugh. On the flip side, if this storm does end up cutting further north then it might help storm #2 come up coast more. Our area historically never does very well with complicated Miller B setups like the storm on Monday. The Miller A storms that ride up the coast are what usually produces for us. Webb is really good and it makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 https://giphy.com/clips/quote-the-sopranos-quotes-D7hkEvq46VuHMsy1em 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 lol, shift back south on 6z euro I love storm tracking but model hunting beyond 4 days out makes me want to go drink with the swings we keep seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's like follow the bouncing weather models hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I mean I think we know the drill around these parts. Everyone will start as snow. Then slowly transition over to ice-first down around RIC then up 95 through Ashland then up to Caroline. Louisa/Fluvanna/Caroline are the last spots to change over to sleet/freezing rain. I do think that we all start out with a decent thump then change over. Miller B's are notorious for that around here. The models will drive you crazy no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I mean I think we know the drill around these parts. Everyone will start as snow. Then slowly transition over to ice-first down around RIC then up 95 through Ashland then up to Caroline. Louisa/Fluvanna/Caroline are the last spots to change over to sleet/freezing rain. I do think that we all start out with a decent thump then change over. Miller B's are notorious for that around here. The models will drive you crazy no doubt. "The drill" is perfectly fine. The flip flopping of models even as we are now just a little over 72 hours from actual precip is annoying that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: "The drill" is perfectly fine. The flip flopping of models even as we are now just a little over 72 hours from actual precip is annoying that's all. I agree completely. It is the block and confluence that has us up in arms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Anyone see how much freezing rain GFS just gave us?? @RIC Airport? You still with us? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Latest GFS ensemble members are not good for us for Sunday/Monday Hard to believe just days ago, most all the ensemble models and were showing WSW criteria for RVA. Thats why I hate Miller B storms. They are typically unpredictable and usually have mixing issues. The pattern setting up after this storm is cold and dry until around 16th of January. Hopefully during the relaxation period mid Jan we can score. GFS fantasy show a gulf storm 300 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Latest GFS ensemble members are not good for us for Sunday/Monday Hard to believe just days ago, most all the ensemble models and were showing WSW criteria for RVA. Thats why I hate Miller B storms. They are typically unpredictable and usually have mixing issues. The pattern setting up after this storm is cold and dry until around 16th of January. Hopefully during the relaxation period mid Jan we can score. GFS fantasy show a gulf storm 300 hr Miller B systems rarely if ever produce good snows at our latitude. Sure we can mix quite a bit, but it all depends on the transfer. If the transfer is far enough south, VA can cash in, but with it looking to move further north, we will quickly change from snow to ice and in a lot of cases, plain rain. we are just too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM I’m noticing that the snowiest solution over the past few days seems to have the low further south over Oklahoma, instead of further south/west over the Texas Panhandle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nice rain storm on the GFS… Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I confess to snowdenfreude. If my area isn't going to get snow then those who always dump on other areas shouldn't get as much snow as them, so sad. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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