RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the possibility of snow flurries/showers Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the 1/6 event. Temps are marginal, and QPF is spotty (<.10"), but both GFS and Euro have had this on several runs. Maybe some conversational snow ahead of the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Wasn't a good run at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Terrible-it has a different solution every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Terrible-it has a different solution every run 32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. And I don't think 1/6 solution is finished being baked haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 An active 14 days in store. I feel pretty good if I was around Richmond or just north for seeing something measurable or appreciable. With room to waffle to the north or south. At least there's something to watch. 4-5 days out is an eternity. Track seems to be locking in. Not going to cut. Nor is it going to jump too far south. This has the looks of a Richmond to DC Beltway special. The cold is very interesting as well. Looks like it keeps reloading through the middle of the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Fellas , it looks like RVA is going to get its first measurable snowfall Sunday night-Monday. Honestly, I don’t care how much is as long as it covers the grass and roads….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, Conway7305 said: NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm? If you look at the dates, some show up around the 6-7th, from the first storm. I'm not sure what you can glean from that, but I was also surprised to see how high some members were. But it could also be picking up some of the IP/ZR numbers since it assumes a 10:1 ratio. Also, the 11-13th period is still showing potential. Old news now, so we'll see what 12z EPS does, and of course, once the short range models get within range, they will be telling too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Fellas , it looks like RVA is going to get its first measurable snowfall Sunday night-Monday. Honestly, I don’t care how much is as long as it covers the grass and roads….lol Hopefully, the airport exceeds an inch within a 24 hour period to break the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 GFS came in with what is a pretty impactful event for the area. However, that changeover to IP/ZR happens quickly. Precip enters the metro area between 7pm and 10pm Sunday night, and by 4am, we are already changing over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 This was the warmest panel I saw during the event, which was at 1pm Monday. GFS does have RIC with a surface temperature up to 33°F before dropping thereafter. Anyone that lives south of I-64 will have 850mb temps above 0°C for a time. Also, Sunday evening surface temps may take a few hours to hit freezing as the precip arrives so we need that to happen quickly to maximize any snow accumulation before the warmer air aloft arrives. Hopefully we don't get too warm Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: GFS came in with what is a pretty impactful event for the area. However, that changeover to IP/ZR happens quickly. Precip enters the metro area between 7pm and 10pm Sunday night, and by 4am, we are already changing over. yeah, I saw that but the other models are showing more snow. The 12z icon especially looks good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: yeah, I saw that but the other models are showing more snow. The 12z icon especially looks good for us. I saw it was the farthest south it's been. But, the ICON hasn't been around long, I don't normally look at it. At least the "big one" is still on the table on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Just now, mikeeng92 said: 12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature. I'll take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The painful part of the storm is the heaviest snow is so narrow. I’m hoping we manage 2” before any precip cutoff or changeover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 The Euro has been fairly consistent. Here is the latest EPS, a slight uptick from the 6zz run. Just hoping we can squeak out an inch before we flip to ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The Euro has been fairly consistent. Here is the latest EPS, a slight uptick from the 6zz run. Just hoping we can squeak out an inch before we flip to ice. I would find an inch to be disappointing. I’m waiting for the system to get over land / better sampling before getting disappointed though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I would find an inch to be disappointing. I’m waiting for the system to get over land / better sampling before getting disappointed though. Oh I agree. I'm really hoping to get a solid 3-4" that sticks around for several days with the upcoming cold. There are quite a few EPS members delivering that, including some that seem to think we can approach a foot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I got Dec 2018 vibes goin lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We need the snow belt to shift 60 miles south. Still good for a 3-4 inch snow but would be nice get 8-12 followed by deep freeze. Also I’m still big dog hunting and waiting on our HECS Miller A later in Jan. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I got Dec 2018 vibes goin lol Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. I think as we got within 18 to 24 hours it did start showing more and we got nam'd lol. But because of the unreliability nobody was sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: We need the snow belt to shift 60 miles south. Still good for a 3-4 inch snow but would be nice get 8-12 followed by deep freeze. Also I’m still big dog hunting and waiting on our HECS Miller A later in Jan. lol 49 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. 12z Euro AI came in. I'm not sure what to glean from it. It looks like 850mb temps stay below 0°C for most, if not all, of the event. Surface temps also look to remain below freezing. It's hard to tell how much IP/ZR it has, but it's a good run with about 0.60" of QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don’t get the Euro Ai model outputs but heard it was really trying to bring a legit Miller A up coast and grazes us on 1/10-1/11 Southeast gets crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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