Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Not a bad 0z ICON run for 1/6-7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Has anyone else noticed that it seems like with each day the forecasted cold snap doesn't seem as impressive? A few days ago, actually just two days ago, models were showing single digits and close to zero. Especially the weekend of January 10-12. Still showing cold but just not as cold. This just seems like the typical evolution of cold events. I tend to think models sometimes overdo cold at long range and it gets more reasonable the closer we get to the arrival of the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 The earlier runs also factored in snow cover when the coldest of the air moved into the region. The op runs haven't been as snowy for us so single digits or even below 0°F readings are harder to do without snow cover around here. Also, it's starting to become apparent that supression will be an issue for us. There is still time, but I'm not liking the trends so far for wave #2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Thats what I was afraid of, Cold/Suppressed. Still plenty of time to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Thats what I was afraid of, Cold/Suppressed. Still plenty of time to change The 6Z GFS op renewed hope for wave 2, and the GEFS run was healthy, with about 8-10 good hits out of the 30 ensembles. If we're lucky, even wave one can provide a coating to an inch. But that might be asking for too much at this juncture. I hope the 12z suite turns things around for us, particularly the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 31 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 6Z GFS op renewed hope for wave 2, and the GEFS run was healthy, with about 8-10 good hits out of the 30 ensembles. If we're lucky, even wave one can provide a coating to an inch. But that might be asking for too much at this juncture. I hope the 12z suite turns things around for us, particularly the Euro. Could be the biggest threat for 1/6-7 AT THIS POINT is for a 1/2 inch of ice. But still lots of time. Good to see the 10th back on the table. Also GFS re-introduces singles digits lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I don't want to post this in the main thread because they didn't like the run, but this doesn't look bad for Central Virginia at all with the standard medium/short-term north trend, and with other models like the ICON and Euro with the jackpot in DC area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still plenty of time, 12z OP both storms were suppressed but 6z was great. Shows nice event on 1/7 then 2nd storm kinda comes up coast. Models will continue to be all over the place for the next couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time, 12z OP both storms were suppressed but 6z was great. Shows nice event on 1/7 then 2nd storm kinda comes up coast. Models will continue to be all over the place for the next couple days. Euro came south with wave #1 with 4-8" common across metro RIC. But, of course, this assumes a 10:1 ratio. Not sure if it's a trend, but it's encouraging to see a colder solution. The model has about 0.80" of total QPF for the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Well, now WE know something is going to happen...we are in the bullseye 6 days out and they are freaking out in the main thread. Which means, it will inevitably trend north and all their whining would have been for naught and we will have mixing issues. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 This Euro run suggests there will be a period of IP and ZR before a **possible** turnover to rain. Possible, because this is the warmest panel I see, it's a close call for Richmond. Surface temps are around 31-33 at hour 150, but the 925mb, 850mb and 700mb level appeared to remain below 0°C throughout the event. The last image actually has a changeover back to snow as colder air filters in as the coastal redevelops off the coast. Notice the 540 line moves SE of RIC at hour 156. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 FWIW, EPS for this event. Still an indication the heaviest snows remain north of RIC, from CHO to DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Euro has another storm further out in time, but of course, it's too far out and we know things will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 12Z GEFS final, more than one event, of course. Wintry signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Not bad for 6+ days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Will take p28 or p3! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z! Hard to believe there is a tornado threat in the state on NYE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 16/50 have us getting 4+ with this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That’s right I forgot about 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. Was living in Glen Allen then (live in Moseley now). Big time over performer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 The 18Z GEFS and the 18Z EPS still have a CHO to DCA tendency in the mean. Unfortunately, there is certainly enough time for a shift back north on the op runs. There is still so much time left before we truly know, but my gut feeling, based on what has tended to happen in the modern era, is that there will be a correction back north. I'd be happy to be wrong, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. 11.5" at RIC officially from this event. The 12/9/2018 storm was one of the rare occurrences where we overperformed the day of. I lived out of Virginia for 14 years and returned the summer before this storm. I haven't seen more than 2-3" since, certainly nothing that has stuck around for more than a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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