JB Fins Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Well, now WE know something is going to happen...we are in the bullseye 6 days out and they are freaking out in the main thread. Which means, it will inevitably trend north and all their whining would have been for naught and we will have mixing issues. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 This Euro run suggests there will be a period of IP and ZR before a **possible** turnover to rain. Possible, because this is the warmest panel I see, it's a close call for Richmond. Surface temps are around 31-33 at hour 150, but the 925mb, 850mb and 700mb level appeared to remain below 0°C throughout the event. The last image actually has a changeover back to snow as colder air filters in as the coastal redevelops off the coast. Notice the 540 line moves SE of RIC at hour 156. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 FWIW, EPS for this event. Still an indication the heaviest snows remain north of RIC, from CHO to DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Euro has another storm further out in time, but of course, it's too far out and we know things will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 12Z GEFS final, more than one event, of course. Wintry signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Not bad for 6+ days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Will take p28 or p3! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z! Hard to believe there is a tornado threat in the state on NYE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 16/50 have us getting 4+ with this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That’s right I forgot about 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. Was living in Glen Allen then (live in Moseley now). Big time over performer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 The 18Z GEFS and the 18Z EPS still have a CHO to DCA tendency in the mean. Unfortunately, there is certainly enough time for a shift back north on the op runs. There is still so much time left before we truly know, but my gut feeling, based on what has tended to happen in the modern era, is that there will be a correction back north. I'd be happy to be wrong, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. 11.5" at RIC officially from this event. The 12/9/2018 storm was one of the rare occurrences where we overperformed the day of. I lived out of Virginia for 14 years and returned the summer before this storm. I haven't seen more than 2-3" since, certainly nothing that has stuck around for more than a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the possibility of snow flurries/showers Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the 1/6 event. Temps are marginal, and QPF is spotty (<.10"), but both GFS and Euro have had this on several runs. Maybe some conversational snow ahead of the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Wasn't a good run at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Terrible-it has a different solution every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Terrible-it has a different solution every run 32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. And I don't think 1/6 solution is finished being baked haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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