Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

This looks better for 1/7 1/8  storm on GEFS

 

[RIC Airport]

5 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

This looks better for 1/7 1/8  storm on GEFS

 

This only through hour 294, but certainly a RDU to ORF snowstorm signal. 

 

[RIC Airport]

I'll post the finals when they are done, but the numbers are still ticking up. 

[Conway7305]

Dang euro squashes our HECS from 0z 

[RIC Airport]

16 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Dang euro squashes our HECS from 0z 

That RDU to ORF signal is strong on the GEFS. Plenty of examples where Richmond did well despite the heaviest snows to the S and E. 1/7/2017 is a recent example. 

 

[Conway7305]

Still  early, models are all over the place.  After  1/6-7 there seems to be too much blocking and suppresses any storms but I’m sure that will change 

[RIC Airport]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Still  early, models are all over the place.  After  1/6-7 there seems to be too much blocking and suppresses any storms but I’m sure that will change 

EPS coming in STRONG!!

[RIC Airport]

4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS coming in STRONG!!

[Conway7305]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Nice!  Can you post the individual frames. curious if the 1/8-9 storm is dead or OP was just a fluke

[Conway7305]

I copied them off mid atlantic forum.  Wow some huge hits.  If not better then before 

 

 

[Conway7305]

[Conway7305]

I’ll take p1 

[RIC Airport]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

I’ll take p1 

Highest 2 and 4 day mean maps.

[RIC Airport]

5 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I’ll take p1 

 

I usually prefer to wait until the run is completely finish. Here is thru hr 360. 

[RIC Airport]

39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I’ll take p1 

32"

[Conway7305]

18z GFS better then 12z Operational on pretty much for both storms.  No big dog run but trending well. 

[RIC Airport]

36 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS better then 12z Operational on pretty much for both storms.  No big dog run but trending well. 

Yes, I had to step a way for a bit, but will post the GEFS. Things are still looking RIPE for cold and snow and every run will offer a different solution as expected, but what a close call with this one, looks like it tries to phase too late.

This may be the best January we've had since 2014 with all the opportunities combined with good cold.

[RIC Airport]

Final GEFS run

 

[Conway7305]

18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Final GEFS run

 

9 Frames with 4+” inches. Not bad 

6 of those 9 are 10+”

 

 

 

[Conway7305]

12z GFS OP run was not good. Cutter storm 1/5-6 to supression and cold.  Seems we are tending the wrong way:/  I am still  rooting for 1/8-9 but this cold push may not anllow  anything to come north.  Might have to wait for a relax period in mid Jan 

[Conway7305]

12z EURO OP is a good run for decent Miller B on  1/6 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

12z EURO OP is a good run for decent Miller B on  1/6 

EPS mean was still decent, although certainly can be better for January. Hopefully things rebound in the coming days. 

If RIC stays below freezing for more than two days in a row, it will be the longest stretch of cold since January 2018 when there were 4 days remaining below freezing. There would've been a 7 day stretch had it not been for the lone high of 34°F in the middle.

[RIC Airport]

 

AKQ has introduced chance of snow Sunday night for most zones.

Latest Disco below.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A disturbance brings a chance for light rain/snow Friday
  afternoon and evening across northern and eastern portions of
  the area.

- Temperatures trend much colder for the weekend.

- Continuing to keep an eye on the Sunday night-Monday
  timeframe. Chances for some sort of winter weather has
  increased, but confidence on the details remains low at this
  point.

Cold temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through
most of the extended period as transient high pressure initially
settles over the area. Aloft, brisk zonal/quasi-zonal flow is
expected late Thursday/early Friday, before heights fall in advance
of a digging trough Friday afternoon/evening. This evolution is
likely to lead to sfc low development offshore of the area as strong
cold advection pushes in behind a cold front. Highs Friday warm into
the mid-upper 40s. However, the aforementioned upper disturbance
should spark off increased cloudiness and perhaps some light precip
across northern portions of the area Friday afternoon, transitioning
eastward toward the coast Friday evening and early overnight. While
deep-layer moisture is lacking, forecast soundings support light
snow or a rain/snow mix with temps well below freezing just above
the sfc (sfc temps quickly fall into the 30s by the evening). For
now, only have slight chc PoPs for the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore,
and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Quickly clearing out for Saturday and most
of Sunday as cold Canadian high pressure builds down from the
Midwest. Highs both days struggle to reach 40 F, with mid-upper 30s
expected across the N/NW. Overnight lows also trend cold and lows
Friday and Saturday night in the teens and 20s are expected...
"mildest" at the immediate coast.

Uncertainty then builds Sunday night into Monday as a potent
shortwave ejects out of Desert Southwest and Plains. Some sort of
precip, some potentially of the wintry variety, is looking
increasingly probable by early Monday as sfc low pressure slides
into the Great Lakes region. Most of the uncertainty is present only
because this event remains ~7 days away and perfect agreement among
the model guidance is just not possible at this lead time. For
example, while the deterministic GFS and ECMWF suggest somewhat
similar sfc evolutions and potential winter wx from precip
overrunning a cold low-level airmass, several of their ensembles and
the deterministic Canadian depict quite different solutions. Will
continue to show a chance of snow for most of our area late Sunday
night during precip onset, transitioning to rain/snow around sunrise
Monday, and then rain Monday. Additionally, there are many unknowns
about p-type as soundings show slight differences in the warm nose
magnitude and precip intensity. Thus, will continue to keep p-types
limited to rain and snow and introduce freezing rain and sleet as
confidence increases (if necessary). Either way, the best chance of
winter wx is inland and especially across our northern counties.
Probabilities from the ECMWF ensemble for >1" and >3" snow increased
with this cycle, with ~50% and ~20% respectively...roughly from the
RIC metro and points N and E. Probs from the GEFS and CMC ensemble
are lower so mainly just something to monitor at this point.
Regardless of any wintry wx, there is high confidence in below
average temperatures through most of next week

[JFLETCHER]

19 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS mean was still decent, although certainly can be better for January. Hopefully things rebound in the coming days. 

If RIC stays below freezing for more than two days in a row, it will be the longest stretch of cold since January 2018 when there were 4 days remaining below freezing. There would've been a 7 day stretch had it not been for the lone high of 34°F in the middle.

There are some good hits in there. I still think we truly won't know a whole lot until Thursday or Friday about the ultimate outcome. I do see in Wakefield discussion they are mentioning the threat of snow at least Sunday into Monday. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS mean was still decent, although certainly can be better for January. Hopefully things rebound in the coming days. 

If RIC stays below freezing for more than two days in a row, it will be the longest stretch of cold since January 2018 when there were 4 days remaining below freezing. There would've been a 7 day stretch had it not been for the lone high of 34°F in the middle.

EPS decent.  Time will tell, There are so many shortwaves flying around it’s tough to nail down anything past 5 days. 

[Conway7305]

18z GEFS snowfall mean trended better then 12z.   Also looked like something was trying to get cooking in the gulf after 1/6   but didn’t quite phase

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GEFS snowfall mean trended better then 12z.   Also looked like something was trying to get cooking in the gulf after 1/6   but didn’t quite phase

If you look at the chart below, most of the potential is from later next week. 

[Conway7305]

14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

If you look at the chart below, most of the potential is from later next week. 

will take e22 or e30! 

[wasnow215]

Has anyone else noticed that it seems like with each day the forecasted cold snap doesn't seem as impressive? A few days ago, actually just two days ago, models were showing single digits and close to zero. Especially the weekend of January 10-12. Still showing cold but just not as cold.

[Conway7305]

10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Has anyone else noticed that it seems like with each day the forecasted cold snap doesn't seem as impressive? A few days ago, actually just two days ago, models were showing single digits and close to zero. Especially the weekend of January 10-12. Still showing cold but just not as cold.

Could be a good thing not having PV right over us, storms won’t stay as suppressed and may try come up the coast