RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Now this is old school cold!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Need to leave the faucets dripping on this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 @RIC AirportEnsembles for 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC AirportEnsembles for 18z? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 Better than 12z GEFS, but not as good as the 6Z run. Obviously, even with ensembles there will be some fluctuations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Multiple 10”+ hits. Like to see that. EPS was good as well for this far out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Nice evolution of EPS. Fun times ahead hopefully https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873154546278776971?s=46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Would love a classic Miller A with cold air to stick around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said: Would love a classic Miller A with cold air to stick around. 00z GFS has provided another snow event for the 7-8th. Still a long ways to go unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS has provided another snow event for the 7-8th. Still a long ways to go unfortunately. 00z Euro has a HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 06z GFS not really as good for us with the 6th storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 RIC can you post the ensemble frames for the 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: RIC can you post the ensemble frames for the 6z GEFS Certainly a step back from 00Z, but still a signal. Let's hope 12Z is a bump back in the right direction. Here is the 00Z run map for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 12Z GFS has the initial wave for 1/6 to 1/7 cutting west of the mountains, but we start as snow and then change to IP/ZR. As depicted, there could actually be a significant amount of ice in spots before changing over to rain. The next wave is suppressed to our south, but it is certainly not a bad spot at this range, as things do trend north over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS has the initial wave for 1/6 to 1/7 cutting west of the mountains, but we start as snow and then change to IP/ZR. As depicted, there could actually be a significant amount of ice in spots before changing over to rain. The next wave is suppressed to our south, but it is certainly not a bad spot at this range, as things do trend north over time. Im actually happy with this run. I have a feeling ensembles will be better at 12z , it showing the 2nd storm, though suppressed is a better run then 6z. Kinda of in line with the Euro. If that first storm doesn’t cut we get more ice/snow but the 2nd storm will likely be OTS. I’m rooting for the 2nd storm on 1/8-9 as Euro shows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 The CMC has the 2nd wave farther north delivering mostly for Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The CMC has the 2nd wave farther north delivering mostly for Hampton Roads. Not a bad look at that range, will take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 How did the 12z GFS Ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 16 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: How did the 12z GFS Ensembles look? They're still running. Euro has a different solution for the storm on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: How did the 12z GFS Ensembles look? Verbatim looks like it would be 3-5" for our area. Second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 This looks better for 1/7 1/8 storm on GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 5 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: This looks better for 1/7 1/8 storm on GEFS This only through hour 294, but certainly a RDU to ORF snowstorm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 I'll post the finals when they are done, but the numbers are still ticking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Dang euro squashes our HECS from 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 16 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Dang euro squashes our HECS from 0z That RDU to ORF signal is strong on the GEFS. Plenty of examples where Richmond did well despite the heaviest snows to the S and E. 1/7/2017 is a recent example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Still early, models are all over the place. After 1/6-7 there seems to be too much blocking and suppresses any storms but I’m sure that will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still early, models are all over the place. After 1/6-7 there seems to be too much blocking and suppresses any storms but I’m sure that will change EPS coming in STRONG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: EPS coming in STRONG!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Nice! Can you post the individual frames. curious if the 1/8-9 storm is dead or OP was just a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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