wasnow215 Posted December 26, 2024 Share Posted December 26, 2024 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z GFS and Euro both show a nice snowstorm 1/8-1/9. 100%-not giving up on the possibility around January 6 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Things continue to look exciting heading into January. GFS and Euro have advertised snow to varying degrees on quite a few runs. I am just waiting for more consistency and also for us to get within seven days before I get too excited. We all remember how last year turned out. Models showed a great H5 pattern and yet we were left in disappointment. But, for now, I have muted optimism. Interestingly, the 00z Euro had a high of only 13°F at Richmond on Friday, January 10th and a low temperature of 0°F the next morning. Also, this morning's 6z GFS had a significant NC/VA snowstorm, an old-school type, on January 7-8th. The heaviest accumulations were south and east of Richmond with 18" in Norfolk. I emphasize these extremes to underscore the potential of the upcoming weather pattern. Fingers crossed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Fun times ahead for the crew here! The further south the better 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Signs to have hope for sure. I have been waking up and gauging by the number of posts in the medium to long range thread, typically, the more posts the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Operational 12z GFS wasn’t great for 1/9, cutter/northern stream this time but it’s still too far out. need to look at ensemble runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Operational 12z GFS wasn’t great for 1/9, cutter/northern stream this time but it’s still too far out. need to look at ensemble runs Ensembles much better. The upper air pattern is the most important part of why the 1/6-1/10 screams snow imo for our region. Discreet events will work themselves out. So excited for those on this board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 I saw that, good news! Now hopefully the 12z Euro ensembles will show the same thing. Operational was dry/cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Ensembles much better. The upper air pattern is the most important part of why the 1/6-1/10 screams snow imo for our region. Discreet events will work themselves out. So excited for those on this board. 12Z GFS and Euro OP runs were basically cold and dry. The 12z EPS mean came in quite healthy, nearly 5" at RIC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS and Euro OP runs were basically cold and dry. The 12z EPS mean came in quite healthy, nearly 5" at RIC. Looks good! Ensembles are what we always need to look at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Looks good! Ensembles are what we always need to look at this range Yes, I don't recall seeing a 5 inch mean at all last year. Individual members are still running, will post when they are done, and charts too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, I don't recall seeing a 5 inch mean at all last year. Individual members are still running, will post when they are done, and charts too! Just got done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Just got done. wow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 So many hits! Some of them incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 34 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: wow!! 31 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: So many hits! Some of them incredible! 12Z EPS snow charts for RIC and ORF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Although no month is ever the same, but I see January 1977 coming up a lot as an analog. It was RIC's second coldest January (after 1940) on record. Looks like there was a 7" snowstorm early in the month before the motherlode of cold arrived mid-month with highs only in the teens and even a below 0°F reading. There was at least a trace of snow on the ground most of the month. The last time there was a high temperature below 20°F at RIC was back in February 1996. Most recently there was a high of only 21°F in February of 2015. The most recent below 0°F reading at RIC was in January 2018 when it hit -3°F at the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Although no month is ever the same, but I see January 1977 coming up a lot as an analog. It was RIC's second coldest January (after 1940) on record. Looks like there was a 7" snowstorm early in the month before the motherlode of cold arrived mid-month with highs only in the teens and even a below 0°F reading. There was at least a trace of snow on the ground most of the month. The last time there was a high temperature below 20°F at RIC was back in February 1996. Most recently there was a high of only 21°F in February of 2015. The most recent below 0°F reading at RIC was in January 2018 when it hit -3°F at the airport. The coldest day I can remember recently was Christmas Eve 2023. What were the highs and lows that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: The coldest day I can remember recently was Christmas Eve 2023. What were the highs and lows that day? Christmas Eve 2022 had a low of 8°F and a high of 24°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Christmas Eve 2022 had a low of 8°F and a high of 24°F. Yes 2022-ty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Nice Evolution of snow probability increase as we progress through 1/12 https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1873081337042661692?s=46 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 HUGE GFS run incoming for 1/9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: HUGE GFS run incoming for 1/9 Looks like we get a front end thump, but change to IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Looks like we get a front end thump, but change to IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Great to finally see a big storm on OP! Rain/Snow line is irrelevant at this point. Ensembles should be entertaining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Verbatim surface temps at RIC remain below freezing throughout the event. But, we rise above 0°C at 850mb for a time, unfortunately. I'm sure 00z will offer a different solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Now this is old school cold!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Need to leave the faucets dripping on this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 @RIC AirportEnsembles for 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC AirportEnsembles for 18z? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 Better than 12z GEFS, but not as good as the 6Z run. Obviously, even with ensembles there will be some fluctuations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Multiple 10”+ hits. Like to see that. EPS was good as well for this far out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now