RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2024 Author Share Posted December 22, 2024 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Nice fantasy blizzard from 12z EURO That storm on the 12z Euro would be epic!! And unlike 2016, it's an all snow event through and through for anyone west of about New Kent. Truly a beautiful evolution! It has that old school big snowstorm track that seems to be nonexistent nowadays. It also has a lot of wind, so the snow and wind combo, at least for a time, would be like 1/23/2016 or 1/25/2000 (My all time favorite ). Both storms had about a 6-8 hour period with +SN and BLSN at RIC, which is unusual. Click the link below and check out the hourly observations for the 2000 storm, things got really good after sunrise! https://weatherspark.com/h/d/147038/2000/1/25/Historical-Weather-on-Tuesday-January-25-2000-at-Richmond-International-Airport-Virginia-United-States#Figures-ColorTemperature In the 2016 storm, RIC narrowly missed reaching official blizzard criteria because, during the second of three hours, they recorded a wind gust of 32 mph instead of the 35 mph required. Seeing more signals of cold and storminess is encouraging. And like everyone else, I’m waiting to see how the rest of this winter develops, but I’m trying not to get too caught up in each model run, especially anything still over a week away with no run to run consistency. Last year was fun but exhausting, especially when we didn’t get much snow, and the 2nd half of winter ended in disappointment despite all the hype. I haven’t been posting much lately because I had surgery about about 10 days ago, and the timing of this potential storm isn't ideal for me. I’ll be dealing with post-surgical recovery until 1/13 before I’m fully mobile again. While I’ll be able to track a storm and participate here before then, I won’t be able to enjoy the event as much due to my limited mobility. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2024 Author Share Posted December 22, 2024 Euro AI appeared to be a RIC and Hampton Roads special. Storms like 1/7/2017, 2/26/2015, 1/3/2002, 2/18/1989, and 3/1/1980 come to mind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2024 Author Share Posted December 22, 2024 Actually, just looked at a couple panels, verbatim southside Hampton Roads would have some precip type issues. But the most of the peninsula and interior SE VA scores. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 23, 2024 Share Posted December 23, 2024 This WILL happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 23, 2024 Share Posted December 23, 2024 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: That storm on the 12z Euro would be epic!! And unlike 2016, it's an all snow event through and through for anyone west of about New Kent. Truly a beautiful evolution! It has that old school big snowstorm track that seems to be nonexistent nowadays. It also has a lot of wind, so the snow and wind combo, at least for a time, would be like 1/23/2016 or 1/25/2000 (My all time favorite ). Both storms had about a 6-8 hour period with +SN and BLSN at RIC, which is unusual. Click the link below and check out the hourly observations for the 2000 storm, things got really good after sunrise! https://weatherspark.com/h/d/147038/2000/1/25/Historical-Weather-on-Tuesday-January-25-2000-at-Richmond-International-Airport-Virginia-United-States#Figures-ColorTemperature In the 2016 storm, RIC narrowly missed reaching official blizzard criteria because, during the second of three hours, they recorded a wind gust of 32 mph instead of the 35 mph required. Seeing more signals of cold and storminess is encouraging. And like everyone else, I’m waiting to see how the rest of this winter develops, but I’m trying not to get too caught up in each model run, especially anything still over a week away with no run to run consistency. Last year was fun but exhausting, especially when we didn’t get much snow, and the 2nd half of winter ended in disappointment despite all the hype. I haven’t been posting much lately because I had surgery about about 10 days ago, and the timing of this potential storm isn't ideal for me. I’ll be dealing with post-surgical recovery until 1/13 before I’m fully mobile again. While I’ll be able to track a storm and participate here before then, I won’t be able to enjoy the event as much due to my limited mobility. Good write up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2024 Share Posted December 23, 2024 16 hours ago, RIC Airport said: I haven’t been posting much lately because I had surgery about about 10 days ago, and the timing of this potential storm isn't ideal for me. I’ll be dealing with post-surgical recovery until 1/13 before I’m fully mobile again. While I’ll be able to track a storm and participate here before then, I won’t be able to enjoy the event as much due to my limited mobility. Heal up RIC Airport and take care of yourself, you keep this little sub-forum we call home going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 24, 2024 Share Posted December 24, 2024 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024122400&fh=288 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 24, 2024 Share Posted December 24, 2024 0z GFS makes a nice step towards the EPS/EURO 1/5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 26, 2024 Share Posted December 26, 2024 12z GFS and Euro both show a nice snowstorm 1/8-1/9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 26, 2024 Share Posted December 26, 2024 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z GFS and Euro both show a nice snowstorm 1/8-1/9. 100%-not giving up on the possibility around January 6 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Things continue to look exciting heading into January. GFS and Euro have advertised snow to varying degrees on quite a few runs. I am just waiting for more consistency and also for us to get within seven days before I get too excited. We all remember how last year turned out. Models showed a great H5 pattern and yet we were left in disappointment. But, for now, I have muted optimism. Interestingly, the 00z Euro had a high of only 13°F at Richmond on Friday, January 10th and a low temperature of 0°F the next morning. Also, this morning's 6z GFS had a significant NC/VA snowstorm, an old-school type, on January 7-8th. The heaviest accumulations were south and east of Richmond with 18" in Norfolk. I emphasize these extremes to underscore the potential of the upcoming weather pattern. Fingers crossed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Fun times ahead for the crew here! The further south the better 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Signs to have hope for sure. I have been waking up and gauging by the number of posts in the medium to long range thread, typically, the more posts the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Operational 12z GFS wasn’t great for 1/9, cutter/northern stream this time but it’s still too far out. need to look at ensemble runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Operational 12z GFS wasn’t great for 1/9, cutter/northern stream this time but it’s still too far out. need to look at ensemble runs Ensembles much better. The upper air pattern is the most important part of why the 1/6-1/10 screams snow imo for our region. Discreet events will work themselves out. So excited for those on this board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 I saw that, good news! Now hopefully the 12z Euro ensembles will show the same thing. Operational was dry/cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Ensembles much better. The upper air pattern is the most important part of why the 1/6-1/10 screams snow imo for our region. Discreet events will work themselves out. So excited for those on this board. 12Z GFS and Euro OP runs were basically cold and dry. The 12z EPS mean came in quite healthy, nearly 5" at RIC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS and Euro OP runs were basically cold and dry. The 12z EPS mean came in quite healthy, nearly 5" at RIC. Looks good! Ensembles are what we always need to look at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Looks good! Ensembles are what we always need to look at this range Yes, I don't recall seeing a 5 inch mean at all last year. Individual members are still running, will post when they are done, and charts too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, I don't recall seeing a 5 inch mean at all last year. Individual members are still running, will post when they are done, and charts too! Just got done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Just got done. wow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 So many hits! Some of them incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 34 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: wow!! 31 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: So many hits! Some of them incredible! 12Z EPS snow charts for RIC and ORF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 Although no month is ever the same, but I see January 1977 coming up a lot as an analog. It was RIC's second coldest January (after 1940) on record. Looks like there was a 7" snowstorm early in the month before the motherlode of cold arrived mid-month with highs only in the teens and even a below 0°F reading. There was at least a trace of snow on the ground most of the month. The last time there was a high temperature below 20°F at RIC was back in February 1996. Most recently there was a high of only 21°F in February of 2015. The most recent below 0°F reading at RIC was in January 2018 when it hit -3°F at the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Although no month is ever the same, but I see January 1977 coming up a lot as an analog. It was RIC's second coldest January (after 1940) on record. Looks like there was a 7" snowstorm early in the month before the motherlode of cold arrived mid-month with highs only in the teens and even a below 0°F reading. There was at least a trace of snow on the ground most of the month. The last time there was a high temperature below 20°F at RIC was back in February 1996. Most recently there was a high of only 21°F in February of 2015. The most recent below 0°F reading at RIC was in January 2018 when it hit -3°F at the airport. The coldest day I can remember recently was Christmas Eve 2023. What were the highs and lows that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: The coldest day I can remember recently was Christmas Eve 2023. What were the highs and lows that day? Christmas Eve 2022 had a low of 8°F and a high of 24°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Christmas Eve 2022 had a low of 8°F and a high of 24°F. Yes 2022-ty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Nice Evolution of snow probability increase as we progress through 1/12 https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1873081337042661692?s=46 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 HUGE GFS run incoming for 1/9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: HUGE GFS run incoming for 1/9 Looks like we get a front end thump, but change to IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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