Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks.

Euro was also lower for DC proper. Looks like the best places to be are MoCo and toward BWI, parts of the Delmarva. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport

i had a feeling about this one from the start.  I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA.  Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson.  Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow.

i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill.  If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point.

Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue.

My honor. I went all in because of the El Nino. Yes, we got the moisture but couldn't get good cold. And when we finally got a decent cold airmass, it was centered a bit too far west, and that 1/15 storm tracked just west and north of us along the boundary giving places like Chattanooga and Nashville 6+" of snow. 

I am not active during the summer and not a severe weather fan since thunderstorms are so routine around here that it's hard to get excited about them. I track hurricanes, though, so I'll chime in if there is a legitimate threat. But, it's been a while even for that, maybe in 2018 when Florence hit NC and spawned some tornadoes nearby. 

Hopefully, next winter delivers. Whether I will live here for the entire time remains to be seen. I might be moving away again, but not certain where yet. I will probably know at the end of the year. 

[RIC Airport]

Also, @JB Fins Duncan started a YT channel. I know he had freelanced at some stations since his retirement from NBC12.

https://www.youtube.com/@weatherspin

[ldub23]

Will this  be the  beginning  of the real pattern change? 

 

[RIC Airport]

Wakefield is still pretty bullish for @JFLETCHER's area and toward the Northern Neck. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

VAZ064-075-076-509>511-521-170430-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.240217T0300Z-240217T1200Z/
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn,
Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove,
Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton,
Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland,
and Tappahannock
319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please
call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go
to http://DriveNC.gov.

 

[Stormpc]

@RIC Airport

I HOPE you didn't spend your time and energy running up to Arlington to experience that debacle overnight. What a skunk-job. Even up to the start of the event the most meager modeling was still predicting something. Looked at the radar around 10 last night and it looked like a cold front rather than a northern stream wave. Sure areas in Pennsylvania and New Jersey JACKED, but it was a complete bust in the NOVA area. Poor modeling. BUT, all hints were there leading up to it. It began slipping away 36 hours earlier when it started chopping 40 miles off the southern edge of accumulating snow with each 6-hour run.

Oh well! Let's find something else to fantasize about before we turn to severe weather hunting.

[JFLETCHER]

Not a snowflake up here in Caroline. No worries though. It just amazes me how horrendous the models are these days even leading right up to an event. Clipper tracks from the 90s dont happen anymore. They cut right through the heart of south-central VA and gives us all rain. They used to track across NC and give us a nice swath of snow. Just a lot of busts on above climo snowfall predictions but it looked promising at one time.

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, Stormpc said:

@RIC Airport

I HOPE you didn't spend your time and energy running up to Arlington to experience that debacle overnight. What a skunk-job. Even up to the start of the event the most meager modeling was still predicting something. Looked at the radar around 10 last night and it looked like a cold front rather than a northern stream wave. Sure areas in Pennsylvania and New Jersey JACKED, but it was a complete bust in the NOVA area. Poor modeling. BUT, all hints were there leading up to it. It began slipping away 36 hours earlier when it started chopping 40 miles off the southern edge of accumulating snow with each 6-hour run.

Oh well! Let's find something else to fantasize about before we turn to severe weather hunting.

The most QPF I saw was maybe 0.60" on ONE of the runs about 24 hours or so out. Most amounts were in the 0.20 to 0.40" range, and the coldest temp I noticed on the models around DCA was 32°F-33°F. And it was always supposed to be a rain-to-snow situation with temps dropping from the mid and upper 30s, which causes you to lose QPF. Given the marginal temps and limited QPF, I don't understand why up to 3-5" was even in the forecast anywhere nearby. 

@Stormpcno, but I was up for the bust to see the weenie tears. When DCA was still 40°F at 1am, I knew it was over. Even at 1am, the forecast still called for "heavy snow" and 2-4" (see below). They ended up recording 0.1" of snow and only .10" of QPF.

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Not a snowflake up here in Caroline. No worries though. It just amazes me how horrendous the models are these days even leading right up to an event. Clipper tracks from the 90s dont happen anymore. They cut right through the heart of south-central VA and gives us all rain. They used to track across NC and give us a nice swath of snow. Just a lot of busts on above climo snowfall predictions but it looked promising at one time.

It's sad, but winters like this one and last year are becoming more routine. We will still get cold and snow (maybe even a HECS occasionally) with the right pattern and timing, but it will become more challenging, and cold will be more limited in intensity and duration. Winters in Richmond and the mid-Atlantic overall have declined since about 1990. Our oceans are torching, which is part of the problem.

[RIC Airport]

@JFLETCHER, This is from the snowstorm on February 16-17, 2015. It was a very cold snowstorm for all of Virginia, one of the coldest snowstorms, at least in my lifetime, and one of the rare occasions where the entire state was under a winter storm warning. RIC was in the low to mid-teens for most of the snowstorm. Hoping to see something like this again. 

[ldub23]

[mikeeng92]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

@JFLETCHER, This is from the snowstorm on February 16-17, 2015. It was a very cold snowstorm for all of Virginia, one of the coldest snowstorms, at least in my lifetime, and one of the rare occasions where the entire state was under a winter storm warning. RIC was in the low to mid-teens for most of the snowstorm. Hoping to see something like this again. 

Would take this storm in a heartbeat and it was nice. But I remember busting low on that due to awful snow ratios. Nothing but needles. 

[RIC Airport]

9 hours ago, mikeeng92 said:

Would take this storm in a heartbeat and it was nice. But I remember busting low on that due to awful snow ratios. Nothing but needles. 

Yeah, RIC only recorded 7.2". A pretty boring event, just very light to only occasionally moderate snow. The super cold temps are what saved it. Got another storm a week later (2/26/2015) where about 5-6" fell in only a few hours, more in the Hampton Roads area. The snow started around midnight and quickly became heavy up until it ended around 6am. Officially, 5.0" fell at RIC and 5.6" at ORF.

I thought I had saved more images from that storm, it could be because I was still living in Seattle at the time, but tracked from afar.

 

[ldub23]

Now the  cold  comes

 

[RVAman]

Winter is over? Shit the blinds?

[JB Fins]

So it would seem.  Warm up next week.  After that, I am fine with spring like temps.  I am not a March and April snow fan and if we cannot get it in January, thinking the days of us getting it in late March and early April are also behind us, at least in my lifetime and in our current climate trajectory.

Tough enough to clean blinds without shitting them, but yeah, I know the joke from the main thread.

Hoping for some thunderstorms this year, those too, seem to be a thing of the past, at least in the volume we used to get around here.

[Conway7305]

Anyone see P25 on Euro Ensembles for March 3rd. HECS….book it…. lol

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Anyone see P25 on Euro Ensembles for March 3rd. HECS….book it…. lol

March '58 for Hampton Roads to Delmarva...lol....if only..

[Stormpc]

28 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Anyone see P25 on Euro Ensembles for March 3rd. HECS….book it…. lol

Show us if you can.

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Show us if you can.

here you go

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

I’d like to figure out how those 3 ensemble members did what they did. I imagine they string out the trough and slow down the bottom half. So you’re telling me there’s a chance?




.

 

[Stormpc]

I'm fringed! Ha! Wouldn't that be something? What is that, 4 ft for the Eastern shore? 

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

Anyone see P25 on Euro Ensembles for March 3rd. HECS….book it…. lol

5 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

March '58 for Hampton Roads to Delmarva...lol....if only..

4 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

here you go

 

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

I'm fringed! Ha! Wouldn't that be something? What is that, 4 ft for the Eastern shore? 

Of course 18Z GEFS took it away, but I looked at the charts for the 12z run and p25 dropped the following totals in VA, MD and NC.

Virginia

Wallops Island: 50"

West Point: 43"

Williamsburg: 40"

Newport News: 40"

Hampton: 40"

Tappahanock: 39"

Accomack: 35"

Wakefield: 32"

Petersburg: 30"

Chesapeake: 28"

Suffolk: 28"

Richmond: 25"

Hanover: 25"

Chesterfield: 25"

Norfolk: 22"

Franklin: 22"

Virginia Beach: 22"

Maryland

Salisbury: 53"

Cambridge: 41"

Lexington Park: 37"

Ocean City: 30"

Ridgely: 25"

Easton: 25"

Clinton: 25"

North Carolina

Edenton: 24"

Ahoskie: 22"

Elizabeth City: 10"

Currituck: 10"

[Stormpc]

March looks to be active with chances lining up one after the next. All rain but some severe possible.  We have a plethora of cold fronts, gulf storms coming up and Atlantic systems backing in to look forward to. At least it won't be boring.  Unless it's another long range fake but I doubt it. Models do well forcasting rain events way out in the future.

Some potential for graupel or hail for a few of us today.  Maybe some lightning as well. Who knows?

[RVAman]

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

March looks to be active with chances lining up one after the next. All rain but some severe possible.  We have a plethora of cold fronts, gulf storms coming up and Atlantic systems backing in to look forward to. At least it won't be boring.  Unless it's another long range fake but I doubt it. Models do well forcasting rain events way out in the future.

Some potential for graupel or hail for a few of us today.  Maybe some lightning as well. Who knows?

Gonna be some real gusty winds tonight. I think we could definitely see some thunder / lightning. 

[JB Fins]

Well, if we can't do snow, just give me some weather.

[Stormpc]

Bump to discuss all this rain we're getting every other day. I love this morning's setup. Has been on many of the models for the last 7 days. Tight compact system crawling up the coast from the Atlantic.  Had about 1.6in Friday/Saturday and looking at another 2-4 over next 7 days. Pretty widespread to cover most of our forum as well. Maybe some storms Wednesday? Something to keep an eye on. At least it's not boring

[Stormpc]

2.24 storm total. About 4 inches since late Friday.  Puddles in yard. Pool full. Another 1-2 overnight into Wednesday with possible storms. Soaked! Been here 6 years, don't remember a late winter early spring this wet. 

[vastateofmind]

44 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

2.24 storm total. About 4 inches since late Friday.  Puddles in yard. Pool full. Another 1-2 overnight into Wednesday with possible storms. Soaked! Been here 6 years, don't remember a late winter early spring this wet. 

Legit question from outside your sub....have noticed when driving to OBX or through the SC low country on way to beaches, that standing water seems to stand a lot longer than some places. Is that true, or just anecdotal observation on my part! We're considering Myrtle Beach as a final retirement landing spot, and I've also noticed during extended stays that they have frequent runoff and standing water issues...which I would expect right on the coast.

Here in NoVA, and like you -- when we get more rain in a short amount of time, I'll get a temporary "stream" through my backyard for runoff. I have one this morning that will likely subside by late afternoon, and return again tomorrow afternoon when the rain will fire up once more. The stream is rare...but it IS telling in how much extra rain we've received in the past week.

[Stormpc]

4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Legit question from outside your sub....have noticed when driving to OBX or through the SC low country on way to beaches, that standing water seems to stand a lot longer than some places. Is that true, or just anecdotal observation on my part! We're considering Myrtle Beach as a final retirement landing spot, and I've also noticed during extended stays that they have frequent runoff and standing water issues...which I would expect right on the coast.

Here in NoVA, and like you -- when we get more rain in a short amount of time, I'll get a temporary "stream" through my backyard for runoff. I have one this morning that will likely subside by late afternoon, and return again tomorrow afternoon when the rain will fire up once more. The stream is rare...but it IS telling in how much extra rain we've received in the past week.

I can only speak for my area in Currituck/Dare and surrounding counties along the Albemarle and Currituck sounds. The standing water in the ditches along the highways throughout the coastal areas seem to never dry out because they are tidal in nature. Little tributaries and streams fill those basins and they are usually never dry no matter how long it doesn't rain. Yes they do dry up a little bit but it's never empty. Times of heavy rain they certainly fill up more so. Also these places are low-lying and just a few feet above sea level. When they dug my pool and got down to about 4 ft deep they had to continuously pump water out during the process because it would fill. But I'm only about 5 ft above sea level and 700 ft from the sound. Otherwise the soils drain pretty well actually. It's definitely not something I'm accustomed to so I'm still learning after 6 years. You would think the area along the coast would flood more but it doesn't. Yes we get standing water but we never seem to flood. There are a few communities that were poorly designed near Moyock NC and lower areas of Hampton Roads that do flood but it's mainly because of poor planning and design. Great question though.

[JB Fins]

Good luck on the retirement landing search @vastateofmind keep us posted as I am just a few years out from doing the same.  Emerald Isle would be first choice but looking along the coast, depending on where kids permanently land.