Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RVAman]

Another NOVA win.... 

[Conway7305]

EURO might be a blip.  HRRR 12z  short range is saying we get 2-3 inches . Doesn’t jump north. 

[RVAman]

NAM is pulling this thing far far far away from us. Sad.

[JFLETCHER]

7 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course!

That is where I live.

[Conway7305]

We can’t get a break this winter….NOVA will score again. lol 

[Conway7305]

Weeklies teasing us again Mid March….lol

[RIC Airport]

59 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Weeklies teasing us again Mid March….lol

If you want more hope, one EPS member had a Miller A HECS from 29 Feb to 1 Mar. 

 

Here are some airport snowfall totals from it. Areas closest to the coast get its snow on the back side of the low. 

Fredericksburg: 18"

Ashland: 17"

Louisa: 15"

Tappahannock: 15"

Richmond: 14"

New Kent: 12"

Chesterfield: 11"

Petersburg: 10"

West Point: 9"

Williamsburg: 6"

Newport News: 5"

Hampton: 4"

Ahoskie, NC: 4"

Norfolk: 2"

Currituck, NC: 2"

[Stormpc]

This is probably the last real chance for Richmond and vicinity. Such a quick hitter. Not much chance of a fluke. No room for error. Right now I doubt any accumulating snow gets south of Kings Dominion. Unless things start moving south on the 0Z runs beginning with the NAMS next hour. Looks like a Stafford to Baltimore jack, with ratio snows piling up West and North. Culpeper and Rappahannock County's might be the place to be for this one. And the usual Northern Montgomery into Howard County areas in MD. At least there's something to watch. 

It's so much easier living down here  pretty much out of the game all the time. I never stress but I also never get excited  so it goes both ways.

[eaglesin2011]

40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

If you want more hope, one EPS member had a Miller A HECS from 29 Feb to 1 Mar. 

 

Here are some airport snowfall totals from it. Areas closest to the coast get its snow on the back side of the low. 

Fredericksburg: 18"

Ashland: 17"

Louisa: 15"

Tappahannock: 15"

Richmond: 14"

New Kent: 12"

Chesterfield: 11"

Petersburg: 10"

West Point: 9"

Williamsburg: 6"

Newport News: 5"

Hampton: 4"

Ahoskie, NC: 4"

Norfolk: 2"

Currituck, NC: 2"

Seems like allot to write for something that has virtually no chance of happening but hey, guessing your use to doing it for this forum at this point… lol

[RIC Airport]

15 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Seems like allot to write for something that has virtually no chance of happening but hey, guessing your use to doing it for this forum at this point… lol

Just piggybacking off of @Conway7305's post on the weeklies for mid March. Just adding some hope, that's all. Of course, it's just ONE member out of 51 that I cherry picked since we are all pretty depressed, as @Stormpc's post clarifies the situation we're all in. I know we're tired of looking at these maps and charts. Trust me, I understand.  

[RIC Airport]

34 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

This is probably the last real chance for Richmond and vicinity. Such a quick hitter. Not much chance of a fluke. No room for error. Right now I doubt any accumulating snow gets south of Kings Dominion. Unless things start moving south on the 0Z runs beginning with the NAMS next hour. Looks like a Stafford to Baltimore jack, with ratio snows piling up West and North. Culpeper and Rappahannock County's might be the place to be for this one. And the usual Northern Montgomery into Howard County areas in MD. At least there's something to watch. 

It's so much easier living down here  pretty much out of the game all the time. I never stress but I also never get excited  so it goes both ways.

I'm not yet ready to give up since it's only 2/15. I am optimistic each winter until about the 2nd week in March, and then, if I see no concrete signals one to two weeks from there, it's time to accept defeat.

It's a shame the winter turned out this way, and equally as frustrating that the DC area, which is not that far from us, may end up being the I-95 jackpot region because they successfully nickeled and dimed their way to average. Models even trended better within 48 hours for each event, which is different from how it usually works. Nonetheless, hopefully, there will be better luck next year, but with the return of a possible La Nina it's hard to be too excited. 

[Stormpc]

28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I'm not yet ready to give up since it's only 2/15. I am optimistic each winter until about the 2nd week in March, and then, if I see no concrete signals one to two weeks from there, it's time to accept defeat.

It's a shame the winter turned out this way, and equally as frustrating that the DC area, which is not that far from us, may end up being the I-95 jackpot region because they successfully nickeled and dimed their way to average. Models even trended better within 48 hours for each event, which is different from how it usually works. Nonetheless, hopefully, there will be better luck next year, but with the return of a possible La Nina it's hard to be too excited. 

Yes it's not over just looking very bleak. The lack of cold air is what does it for me. Canada warms up nicely into March, so that's what I usually look at. Maybe a fluke later. 1993 was 2nd week of March but that winter was loaded from the start. I lived north of Syracuse for that one and we got about 50 inches with some lake snows on the back end.

That's what makes this hobby so much fun. Don't need a 3-day historic event. It only takes one really epic 12-hour event to make lasting memories.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Yes it's not over just looking very bleak. The lack of cold air is what does it for me. Canada warms up nicely into March, so that's what I usually look at. Maybe a fluke later. 1993 was 2nd week of March but that winter was loaded from the start. I lived north of Syracuse for that one and we got about 50 inches with some lake snows on the back end.

That's what makes this hobby so much fun. Don't need a 3-day historic event. It only takes one really epic 12-hour event to make lasting memories.

Agree wholeheartedly. And the lack of extreme cold and how that doesn't bode well for the rest of the winter. I showed that one member, but the 12z EPS overall did not have much of a wintry look, just seasonal to slightly above average temps. There was still a weak signal around the 24th and around the 1st. 

I considered driving up to Arlington tomorrow to see snow. I usually stay in Ballston when I do. But I will probably pass on that idea. Maybe I'd think twice if they were getting a widespread 6"+ event. 

Also, must've been amazing to experience the March 1993 storm, hopefully we see something like that again in our lifetimes.

[Stormpc]

7 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Agree wholeheartedly. And the lack of extreme cold and how that doesn't bode well for the rest of the winter. I showed that one member, but the 12z EPS overall did not have much of a wintry look, just seasonal to slightly above average temps. There was still a weak signal around the 24th and around the 1st. 

I considered driving up to Arlington tomorrow to see snow. I usually stay in Ballston when I do. But I will probably pass on that idea. Maybe I'd think twice if they were getting a widespread 6"+ event. 

Also, must've been amazing to experience the March 1993 storm, hopefully we see something like that again in our lifetimes.

Did you see the EURO for the 22nd/23rd time frame?? Our LAST SHOT. 

Also you are right about being unlucky. Look at Northern Virginia for instance. After tonight they will be at climate average or above for this time of year if things go as forecasted. And there's another 4 weeks or so to go.... how many places are the East Coast can claim that? Probably none. So in one sense they have gotten incredibly lucky while all others are just suffering the fate of this year's winter.

[RVAman]

I'm not sure why I even got my hopes up for this weekend, even a slushy inch isn't happening anymore. Unfortunate. 

 

[ldub23]

[Conway7305]

Yeah I saw the Feb 24th Storm on 0z Euro  Looks good now.  Would be interested in seeing the ensemble members.  Let’s hope it holds.  Knowing the way these Miller B systems nudge north this year, wouldn’t surprise me if it jackpots NOVA again.  They have gotten lucky all winter.  Hope I’m wrong. 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Did you see the EURO for the 22nd/23rd time frame?? Our LAST SHOT. 

Also you are right about being unlucky. Look at Northern Virginia for instance. After tonight they will be at climate average or above for this time of year if things go as forecasted. And there's another 4 weeks or so to go.... how many places are the East Coast can claim that? Probably none. So in one sense they have gotten incredibly lucky while all others are just suffering the fate of this year's winter.

Yeah, that's the most frustrating part, along with the fact they are so close to us. And that they display the worst level of entitlement on the east coast. I see a lot of people canceling winter, but we've seen sneaky events in the past into March. 

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Yeah I saw the Feb 24th Storm on 0z Euro  Looks good now.  Would be interested in seeing the ensemble members.  Let’s hope it holds.  Knowing the way these Miller B systems nudge north this year, wouldn’t surprise me if it jackpots NOVA again.  They have gotten lucky all winter.  Hope I’m wrong. 

There was more support for tonight's threat on the EPS. I only saw 4 of 51 members with anything from the 23rd to the 24th. The next threat looked like 29th to 1st. 

[RIC Airport]

I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself. 

[RVAman]

16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself. 

I dunno.. looks like D.C. could miss out too if the northern trend continues. 

[RIC Airport]

16 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I dunno.. looks like D.C. could miss out too if the northern trend continues. 

Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing. 

[JB Fins]

Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport

i had a feeling about this one from the start.  I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA.  Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson.  Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow.

i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill.  If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point.

Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue.

 

 

 

[JFLETCHER]

54 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing. 

Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks.

[RVAman]

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport

i had a feeling about this one from the start.  I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA.  Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson.  Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow.

i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill.  If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point.

Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue.

 

 

 

I too am about ready to get the mulch, lawnmower and grill going. I'll hold out for the first two weeks of March and after that I'm ready. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks.

Euro was also lower for DC proper. Looks like the best places to be are MoCo and toward BWI, parts of the Delmarva. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport

i had a feeling about this one from the start.  I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA.  Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson.  Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow.

i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill.  If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point.

Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue.

My honor. I went all in because of the El Nino. Yes, we got the moisture but couldn't get good cold. And when we finally got a decent cold airmass, it was centered a bit too far west, and that 1/15 storm tracked just west and north of us along the boundary giving places like Chattanooga and Nashville 6+" of snow. 

I am not active during the summer and not a severe weather fan since thunderstorms are so routine around here that it's hard to get excited about them. I track hurricanes, though, so I'll chime in if there is a legitimate threat. But, it's been a while even for that, maybe in 2018 when Florence hit NC and spawned some tornadoes nearby. 

Hopefully, next winter delivers. Whether I will live here for the entire time remains to be seen. I might be moving away again, but not certain where yet. I will probably know at the end of the year. 

[RIC Airport]

Also, @JB Fins Duncan started a YT channel. I know he had freelanced at some stations since his retirement from NBC12.

https://www.youtube.com/@weatherspin

[ldub23]

Will this  be the  beginning  of the real pattern change? 

 

[RIC Airport]

Wakefield is still pretty bullish for @JFLETCHER's area and toward the Northern Neck. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

VAZ064-075-076-509>511-521-170430-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.240217T0300Z-240217T1200Z/
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn,
Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove,
Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton,
Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland,
and Tappahannock
319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please
call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go
to http://DriveNC.gov.

 

[Stormpc]

@RIC Airport

I HOPE you didn't spend your time and energy running up to Arlington to experience that debacle overnight. What a skunk-job. Even up to the start of the event the most meager modeling was still predicting something. Looked at the radar around 10 last night and it looked like a cold front rather than a northern stream wave. Sure areas in Pennsylvania and New Jersey JACKED, but it was a complete bust in the NOVA area. Poor modeling. BUT, all hints were there leading up to it. It began slipping away 36 hours earlier when it started chopping 40 miles off the southern edge of accumulating snow with each 6-hour run.

Oh well! Let's find something else to fantasize about before we turn to severe weather hunting.