Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

This is from AKQ's afternoon disccussion.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-The potential for accumulating snow early Saturday morning has
increased across northern portions of the area (roughly from Louisa
to Salisbury), where 1-2" of snow is in the forecast.

-There is the potential for a light accumulating snow as far south
as the Richmond Metro, but confidence in this is lower.

-There is still some uncertainty regarding the track and
 strength of the system, so expect changes in the forecast in
 the coming days.

The surface high becomes suppressed to our SE on Thursday while a
fast moving clipper system tracks well to our north. This system
will drag a cold front through the area Thursday night. Return
southerly flow will allow temps to rise into the upper 50s-lower 60s
in most areas west of the Ches Bay...although it will struggle to
get out of the upper 40s-lower 50s on the ern shore. While there
will be an increase in clouds on Thu in advance of the front, no
precipitation is expected. Clearing Thu night with winds becoming W
then NW behind the front. Lows will fall into the mid 30s-mid 40s.

The main focus of the period is the increasing potential for
accumulating snow across the northern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning...as a fast moving shortwave in zonal flow
aloft tracks over the area. No wx concerns ahead of the system on
Fri with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s in most areas (mid-
upper 40s on the ern shore). The GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/EPS
ensembles are in much better agreement than they were yesterday
with respect to the track of the system. At this time, model
consensus shows the system tracking across southern VA, with the
most likely timing for precip between 10 PM-6 AM (before ending
by sunrise as the system moves offshore). While the system will
be fast moving...there will likely be a 3-6 hour period of
light to moderate snow north of the low track, with light rain
(with amounts under 0.10") in SE VA and NE NC. Despite
temperatures falling to 32-33F, the snow will likely come down
at a decent enough rate (thanks to fairly strong 850-700mb
frontogenesis to the N of the low track). Also, the fact that
this event will occur at night will help a bit with accums
despite the marginal temps. Right now, the forecast calls for
1-2" of snow in areas from roughly Louisa-Salisbury...to less
than 1" in the RIC Metro...with no snow at all south of a
Farmville-Hopewell line. There is the potential for localized
amounts greater than 2" in the most persistent bands...but too
early to reflect this in the forecast. Of course, there will be
changes in the forecast track and strength of the system during
the next couple of days.

Any travel issues Sat AM will be short-lived as the snow will
quickly melt on Saturday with highs rising well into the 40s.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly?

The models seem to behave differently yearly, but they've not been good this year. I can't trust the weeklies next year.  I don't know if we've seen a pattern go poof so fast, especially when almost everyone harped it up, even the usual skeptics. It's disappointing that Richmond has had over 18" of rain since the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and only 0.7" of snow out of it.  

[RIC Airport]

18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 

[RIC Airport]

The latest GRAF model looks legit.

Just look at what the model does vs what he tweeted since he is a DC TV Met. But it's the model that the TV stations use. I like it. 

 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 

00z GFS came in the best yet. But it is still a nail-biter situation around RIC due to marginal surface temps. Will need good rates to bring the cold down. Otherwise, we will waste the limited QPF we have. Verbatim, most of the precip stays north of RIC, at least this run of the GFS.

[ldub23]

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

@ldub23

 

100%

[RVAman]

Trending not in our favor it appears. 

[JB Fins]

Never is.  Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios.

[RVAman]

7 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Never is.  Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios.

Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch

[JFLETCHER]

7 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch

Agree. Best snow may be north of Fredericksburg from the way it looks now. I'm expecting maybe an inch up here in western Caroline. Models trending more north. Mountains may eat up some of our qpf too.

[RIC Airport]

Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists.

Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area.

 

 

[RVAman]

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists.

Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area.

 

 

I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. 

[RIC Airport]

20 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. 

Yes, and we've been through plenty of marginal events and busts. Just saying it's not over until it's over. But I agree. I wish things were better, but I'm just trying to be positive, as the HRRR, which changes every hour, is only one model. The end goal is for all of us to get a decent snowfall, so we're all here with curiosity and still tracking this threat.

[wasnow215]

Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. 

[RIC Airport]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. 

@JFLETCHER, you're definitely in a good spot. 

[wasnow215]

No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course!

[RVAman]

Looks like Kings Dominion and North just a hair will be in the prime spot for the best spot locally to Richmond. 

[wasnow215]

Let’s see if GFS and Euro can get 40-50 miles more south at 12z

[RVAman]

GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think?

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think?

Yes a tad south from 6z

[RIC Airport]

20 minutes ago, RVAman said:

GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think?

14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Yes a tad south from 6z

I like it.

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

I like it.

Winter is  mocking  me.

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Winter is  mocking  me.

It's never over until it's actually over. 

[RIC Airport]

The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. 

I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. 

 

[RVAman]

4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. 

I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. 

 

Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? 

[eaglesin2011]

Most likely still Snow Globe TV for most of the area, if  your up in the Early Moring hours.... Temps prob wont even get to freezing in most of the area... So wherever the banding sets up is going to be key if we get any accumulation...... 

[RIC Airport]

57 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? 

GFS has precip arriving Friday night between 10pm and 11pm. It has the heaviest QPF between 1am and 4am. Between 1am and 4am, surface temperatures go from around 36 to 33 degrees in the Richmond metro area. However, temperatures are below freezing at the 925mb and 850mb levels. To overcome air temperatures above freezing at the surface and for the snow to accumulate, we will need heavy precip rates to bring down the colder air aloft. Otherwise, the snow would just melt on contact. It could even fall as rain the whole time if it's too light. That's because it may not be heavy enough to bring down the below-freezing air at 925mb and higher.

Will need to watch the trends. 

 

[RIC Airport]

@RVAman,The colder air aloft is not as deep before 1am, but that's before the best precip comes in, so it won't matter as much. But, this suggests that there is a higher likelihood that any precipitation will be rain before the heavier rates arrive around 1am.

10pm 925mb temps

1am 925mb temps

[RIC Airport]

This is the map AKQ put out this morning. Best chance of 1" or more is north of about Ruther Glen. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The Euro has the low tracking along the KY/TN border and then once it gets to VA, it takes an abrupt jump north from about Bristol to Roanoke to Wallops Island by 4am Saturday morning. Not understanding what is making the low take that last minute jump north instead of following the same trajectory. The GFS keeps the low along the VA/NC border, really northern NC, which makes more sense to me.