Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RVAman]

I'm still thinking it's over. I may be wrong, I just don't have much faith anymore for snow in this area.

[eaglesin2011]

My guess is that we get a a few hours of snow globe flurries or snow showers because of moderate temps & not much moisture .. but hey if a dusting to inch out of it I would call that a win.. .lol

[wasnow215]

Human nature is funny. I’m not saying it will snow but at least it’s something to track now. I have observed that when it shows all rain or nothing we just don’t say anything or something to the effect of “it figures”.

But when a good model like the European model shows snow and has been off and on for a couple of days, we say it’s not going to happen or won’t be much lol.

 

Me? I think it keeps trending for Snow in a good way -keep the faith! 2-4” by 9am Sat morning. 

[RIC Airport]

On 2/12/2024 at 6:22 PM, ldub23 said:

This  is the  one

No change on the 18z GFS for Saturday morning. Keeps the snow north of us with some passing showers here. Also, the GFAF model being shown on the TV stations looks pretty bullish for the Saturday morning snow threat.

The GFS does, however, revive the threat around the 24th. Right where we want it, right?

 

[RIC Airport]

Anyone remember this storm?

This map was from exactly 10 years ago, a storm that took the more old-school Miller A track up from the Gulf. We were lucky with this one because it wasn't a textbook setup, and, in fact, the NAO was positive. But we did have an arctic airmass driven by the -EPO that dominated the 2013-14 winter pattern, and this storm developed as the arctic airmass was retreating. Snow started in the afternoon of 2/12/2014, with temperatures in the mid-20s. After about 4-5" of snow had fallen, areas around Richmond began mixing to IP and ZR before a dry slot, and an extended lull began after midnight as temperatures rose to around freezing. The second half of the storm started in the afternoon of 2/13/2014 with a few hours of +SN where another 2-4" had fallen. Richmond officially recorded 5.8" of snow, but many areas west of US HWY 15 had 15-20" as they avoided the dry slot and was able to hang on to cold longer as the storm moved up the coast. 

[RIC Airport]

The 18z Euro was a tick north of 12z with the Saturday morning snow. The timing still looks to be 1am to 7am. There is not much QPF anyway, but we'll take what we can get. For RIC, all the airport needs is 0.3" to reach 1.0" for the season. 

 

As mentioned, QPF is limited only about 0.20" to 0.30" on average, but we'll take anything we can get if it's snow. 

 

I wasn't too impressed with the 18Z EPS, most members have an accumulation tendency (assuming a 10:1 ratio ) north of us. But, this is still something to monitor.

[RVAman]

Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon.

[RIC Airport]

43 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon.

I remain optimistic either way. We'll take anything we can get, even if it's something like that one morning back in December, that melted within a few hours. There is a boundary layer issue, but there still should be a 2-3 hour period where 850s are cold enough for it to snow, thereafter depends on the rates. It'll be a tough call because the window is so brief, but at least the timing of the day is favorable. 

[RVAman]

12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. 

[RIC Airport]

12Z NAM did appear a bit drier for NoVA/DC, but seems to be aligned with other models for our area with generally 0.20" to 0.30" of QPF.  This run has a precip jackpot around Tappahanock, Northern Neck area.

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. 

Mesoscale models are the only ones out for 12z and as we all know they don’t come in range til 24 hours out. MAYBE! Lol.

 

Let’s see what GFS/Euro has in store. 

[yoda]

12z GFS 

 

[wasnow215]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS 

 

The last five GFS runs have come south each time

[RVAman]

If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 

Yes, not like this but 12/9/18 definitely overperformed. I’m pretty sure the forecasted snowfall originally was 2 to 4 or 3 to 6.

[RIC Airport]

Euro looks even better to me.

 

[Conway7305]

12z EURO has about 2 to 3 inches for our area Saturday. Honestly, if we get that then I’ll be happy the rest of the winter…lol 

[wasnow215]

Hello Short Pump! Lol

[Stormpc]

HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. 

[RIC Airport]

10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Hello Short Pump! Lol

There is our local map, from pivotal. 

[RIC Airport]

9 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. 

We can afford an even more southern shift and maybe your area can see some flakes, hopefully for us that would also mean colder surface temps. Won't be a 10:1 ratio unfortunately for Richmond based on current data, but even a quick 0.5" to inch on the grass would be awesome though. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

There is our local map, from pivotal. 

Ty!

[RVAman]

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

[wasnow215]

31 minutes ago, RVAman said:

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

But Euro does show 1/2 inch qpf falling in like 3 hours overnight. Could be 3-4” with those rates if it plays out like this particular run. 

[RIC Airport]

42 minutes ago, RVAman said:

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

This is a rain to snow scenario. For the immediate Richmond area, surface temps are above freezing, but since it's below freezing at the 850mb level the precip should fall as snow after about 10pm Friday for areas north of about Petersburg. With good rates, the snow could still stick especially with the time of day, but the surface temps won't make this a 10:1 ratio like the snow maps show. Best rates look to be (per Euro) between 2am and 4am. Precip could be over before sunrise. 

 

This is the ONE hour QPF amount, heaviest is between 3am and 4am. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Ty!

It's why this thread exists so we don't have to rely on finding Richmond or even Tidewater on the maps often posted in the forum's LR thread, because it's DC centric. Some posters recognize there are posters that live outside of the DMV, but most don't or care.

[RVAman]

If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. 

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. 

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly?

[RIC Airport]

@ldub23