Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

12Z NAM did appear a bit drier for NoVA/DC, but seems to be aligned with other models for our area with generally 0.20" to 0.30" of QPF.  This run has a precip jackpot around Tappahanock, Northern Neck area.

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. 

Mesoscale models are the only ones out for 12z and as we all know they don’t come in range til 24 hours out. MAYBE! Lol.

 

Let’s see what GFS/Euro has in store. 

[yoda]

12z GFS 

 

[wasnow215]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS 

 

The last five GFS runs have come south each time

[TampaMan]

If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 

Yes, not like this but 12/9/18 definitely overperformed. I’m pretty sure the forecasted snowfall originally was 2 to 4 or 3 to 6.

[RIC Airport]

Euro looks even better to me.

 

[Conway7305]

12z EURO has about 2 to 3 inches for our area Saturday. Honestly, if we get that then I’ll be happy the rest of the winter…lol 

[wasnow215]

Hello Short Pump! Lol

[Stormpc]

HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. 

[RIC Airport]

10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Hello Short Pump! Lol

There is our local map, from pivotal. 

[RIC Airport]

9 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. 

We can afford an even more southern shift and maybe your area can see some flakes, hopefully for us that would also mean colder surface temps. Won't be a 10:1 ratio unfortunately for Richmond based on current data, but even a quick 0.5" to inch on the grass would be awesome though. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

There is our local map, from pivotal. 

Ty!

[TampaMan]

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

[wasnow215]

31 minutes ago, RVAman said:

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

But Euro does show 1/2 inch qpf falling in like 3 hours overnight. Could be 3-4” with those rates if it plays out like this particular run. 

[RIC Airport]

42 minutes ago, RVAman said:

That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 

This is a rain to snow scenario. For the immediate Richmond area, surface temps are above freezing, but since it's below freezing at the 850mb level the precip should fall as snow after about 10pm Friday for areas north of about Petersburg. With good rates, the snow could still stick especially with the time of day, but the surface temps won't make this a 10:1 ratio like the snow maps show. Best rates look to be (per Euro) between 2am and 4am. Precip could be over before sunrise. 

 

This is the ONE hour QPF amount, heaviest is between 3am and 4am. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Ty!

It's why this thread exists so we don't have to rely on finding Richmond or even Tidewater on the maps often posted in the forum's LR thread, because it's DC centric. Some posters recognize there are posters that live outside of the DMV, but most don't or care.

[TampaMan]

If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. 

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. 

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly?

[RIC Airport]

@ldub23

 

[RIC Airport]

This is from AKQ's afternoon disccussion.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-The potential for accumulating snow early Saturday morning has
increased across northern portions of the area (roughly from Louisa
to Salisbury), where 1-2" of snow is in the forecast.

-There is the potential for a light accumulating snow as far south
as the Richmond Metro, but confidence in this is lower.

-There is still some uncertainty regarding the track and
 strength of the system, so expect changes in the forecast in
 the coming days.

The surface high becomes suppressed to our SE on Thursday while a
fast moving clipper system tracks well to our north. This system
will drag a cold front through the area Thursday night. Return
southerly flow will allow temps to rise into the upper 50s-lower 60s
in most areas west of the Ches Bay...although it will struggle to
get out of the upper 40s-lower 50s on the ern shore. While there
will be an increase in clouds on Thu in advance of the front, no
precipitation is expected. Clearing Thu night with winds becoming W
then NW behind the front. Lows will fall into the mid 30s-mid 40s.

The main focus of the period is the increasing potential for
accumulating snow across the northern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning...as a fast moving shortwave in zonal flow
aloft tracks over the area. No wx concerns ahead of the system on
Fri with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s in most areas (mid-
upper 40s on the ern shore). The GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/EPS
ensembles are in much better agreement than they were yesterday
with respect to the track of the system. At this time, model
consensus shows the system tracking across southern VA, with the
most likely timing for precip between 10 PM-6 AM (before ending
by sunrise as the system moves offshore). While the system will
be fast moving...there will likely be a 3-6 hour period of
light to moderate snow north of the low track, with light rain
(with amounts under 0.10") in SE VA and NE NC. Despite
temperatures falling to 32-33F, the snow will likely come down
at a decent enough rate (thanks to fairly strong 850-700mb
frontogenesis to the N of the low track). Also, the fact that
this event will occur at night will help a bit with accums
despite the marginal temps. Right now, the forecast calls for
1-2" of snow in areas from roughly Louisa-Salisbury...to less
than 1" in the RIC Metro...with no snow at all south of a
Farmville-Hopewell line. There is the potential for localized
amounts greater than 2" in the most persistent bands...but too
early to reflect this in the forecast. Of course, there will be
changes in the forecast track and strength of the system during
the next couple of days.

Any travel issues Sat AM will be short-lived as the snow will
quickly melt on Saturday with highs rising well into the 40s.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly?

The models seem to behave differently yearly, but they've not been good this year. I can't trust the weeklies next year.  I don't know if we've seen a pattern go poof so fast, especially when almost everyone harped it up, even the usual skeptics. It's disappointing that Richmond has had over 18" of rain since the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and only 0.7" of snow out of it.  

[RIC Airport]

18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 

[RIC Airport]

The latest GRAF model looks legit.

Just look at what the model does vs what he tweeted since he is a DC TV Met. But it's the model that the TV stations use. I like it. 

 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 

00z GFS came in the best yet. But it is still a nail-biter situation around RIC due to marginal surface temps. Will need good rates to bring the cold down. Otherwise, we will waste the limited QPF we have. Verbatim, most of the precip stays north of RIC, at least this run of the GFS.

[ldub23]

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

@ldub23

 

100%

[TampaMan]

Trending not in our favor it appears. 

[JB Fins]

Never is.  Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios.

[TampaMan]

7 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Never is.  Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios.

Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch