Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

still no sign of  winter at  18z

 

JB remains  optimistic though how  can winter  come  back when it  never got  here?

 

 

A lot of these people on X don't speak for our area. And personally, I'm not a fan of that dude, but that's a different discussion. 

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

12z Euro had signs as did ensembles.  Lots of time 

GFS was suppressed with the southern stream wave, which the below was as far north as the precip got. Just sharing in case people wondered, I'm sure this won't be the final solution, but quite a change over the last 24 hours. I like that it's still south. Plenty of things can make this work out in our favor with wiggle room on the models. 

[TampaMan]

6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, RVAman said:

6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means.

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

[ldub23]

40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

Im still hoping for  1 inch

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, RVAman said:

6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means.

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im still hoping for  1 inch

12z GFS tries to give us a little snow from the n/s wave, but the s/s wave doesn't really amplify and stays south of us before moving out to sea. Looks more like a cold front now, that gives all our precip.

 

[RIC Airport]

The Canadian is faster with the n/s wave and tries to give us snow showers with that next Saturday. It's much slower with the s/s wave so it amplifies and comes up the coast as a Miller A storm next Tuesday into Wednesday before sliding off of Hatteras. 

 

[TampaMan]

This still just doesn't look good for us. Some time out, sure. Cold air just still isn't there.

[RIC Airport]

24 minutes ago, RVAman said:

This still just doesn't look good for us. Some time out, sure. Cold air just still isn't there.

We are grasping at straws. As long as the models show different solutions, I think there is still a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it with how this winter has gone.  

[RIC Airport]

Looking at the Euro, it might be time to close the blinds. It was similar to the GFS in handling the n/s and s/s energy. 

[Conway7305]

Looks like we’re gonna have to wait until early mid March to possibly get a last-minute save.  Looking at the indexes,  everything is  reversing and forecasted to become warm..  PNA is going negative and that’s gonna kill the Pacific.   I’ve been really trying to remain positive, but it’s tough. The forecasted pattern a couple weeks ago was absolutely epic but  there was too much just warm air in the country.  MJO has stalled in  7  which is a warms phase and never makes  it to phase 8.  I won’t trust the LR weekiles anymore….lol

Hope I am wrong and we get something next week.  

 

[JB Fins]

"If it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all ♪

Gloom, despair and agony on me♪"

 

[ldub23]

[RIC Airport]

EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw.

[Stormpc]

12 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw.

Glimmer is accurate.  Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC.

[eaglesin2011]

4 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Glimmer is accurate.  Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC.

Yep, looks like it could be over for thiis month unless we can get a coastal to form & draw in more cold air with one of these systems before the 25th..(even that would prob bring a changeover at some point) the cold air just refuses to come down this way & the precip for early next week looks like to be trying to leave the building now too) A snow shower on the 17th maybe it for awhile around here....

[TampaMan]

I'm fairly positive it's over. What another pathetic winter. 

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I'm fairly positive it's over. What another pathetic winter. 

Euro provides hope for this weekend and the EPS still has that signal around the 24th, fwiw. We have to hang in longer, especially with what is happening now in the NE, where models shifted dramatically over the last couple of days. 

[RIC Airport]

18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th.

[ldub23]

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th.

This  is the  one

[RIC Airport]

Well, the Euro continues to revive the weekend storm. Looks like a 3-6 hour window on Saturday morning from about 1am to 9am. Temperatures around RIC fall from the mid-upper 30s to around freezing before the precip lifts out around 8am or 9am. It's not looking like a 10:1 ratio, so keep that in mind when looking at the snow map. Also, as we've seen with recent storms, there is still plenty of time for fluctuations on the track. I would not get my hopes up; GFS had practically nothing.

[TampaMan]

I'm still thinking it's over. I may be wrong, I just don't have much faith anymore for snow in this area.

[eaglesin2011]

My guess is that we get a a few hours of snow globe flurries or snow showers because of moderate temps & not much moisture .. but hey if a dusting to inch out of it I would call that a win.. .lol

[wasnow215]

Human nature is funny. I’m not saying it will snow but at least it’s something to track now. I have observed that when it shows all rain or nothing we just don’t say anything or something to the effect of “it figures”.

But when a good model like the European model shows snow and has been off and on for a couple of days, we say it’s not going to happen or won’t be much lol.

 

Me? I think it keeps trending for Snow in a good way -keep the faith! 2-4” by 9am Sat morning. 

[RIC Airport]

On 2/12/2024 at 6:22 PM, ldub23 said:

This  is the  one

No change on the 18z GFS for Saturday morning. Keeps the snow north of us with some passing showers here. Also, the GFAF model being shown on the TV stations looks pretty bullish for the Saturday morning snow threat.

The GFS does, however, revive the threat around the 24th. Right where we want it, right?

 

[RIC Airport]

Anyone remember this storm?

This map was from exactly 10 years ago, a storm that took the more old-school Miller A track up from the Gulf. We were lucky with this one because it wasn't a textbook setup, and, in fact, the NAO was positive. But we did have an arctic airmass driven by the -EPO that dominated the 2013-14 winter pattern, and this storm developed as the arctic airmass was retreating. Snow started in the afternoon of 2/12/2014, with temperatures in the mid-20s. After about 4-5" of snow had fallen, areas around Richmond began mixing to IP and ZR before a dry slot, and an extended lull began after midnight as temperatures rose to around freezing. The second half of the storm started in the afternoon of 2/13/2014 with a few hours of +SN where another 2-4" had fallen. Richmond officially recorded 5.8" of snow, but many areas west of US HWY 15 had 15-20" as they avoided the dry slot and was able to hang on to cold longer as the storm moved up the coast. 

[RIC Airport]

The 18z Euro was a tick north of 12z with the Saturday morning snow. The timing still looks to be 1am to 7am. There is not much QPF anyway, but we'll take what we can get. For RIC, all the airport needs is 0.3" to reach 1.0" for the season. 

 

As mentioned, QPF is limited only about 0.20" to 0.30" on average, but we'll take anything we can get if it's snow. 

 

I wasn't too impressed with the 18Z EPS, most members have an accumulation tendency (assuming a 10:1 ratio ) north of us. But, this is still something to monitor.

[TampaMan]

Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon.

[RIC Airport]

43 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon.

I remain optimistic either way. We'll take anything we can get, even if it's something like that one morning back in December, that melted within a few hours. There is a boundary layer issue, but there still should be a 2-3 hour period where 850s are cold enough for it to snow, thereafter depends on the rates. It'll be a tough call because the window is so brief, but at least the timing of the day is favorable. 

[TampaMan]

12z models looking mainly more dry and more North.