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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion


RIC Airport
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Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign.  

I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread.

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3 hours ago, RVAman said:

0z and 6z looked not great. Maybe we'll get lucky around PD. 

2 hours ago, JB Fins said:

Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign.  

I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread.

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Oh where oh where could all the cold air be????!!!!!

I decided to take a break until we see consistency. It's way too early to give up. As @Conway7305 alluded to, the ingredients are there, and every model will handle the features differently regarding strength and timing since we are still talking about 9-10 days away. Now that the operational Euro is within range let's focus on it and see how it handles everything.

I understand the GFS runs before the Euro, but we tend to only focus on the GFS since it runs 4 times a day through 384 hours. The VD day storm is not even set in stone for places like NYC and BOS, and it's only a few days away. The GFS is still wobbling with that track, while the Euro has been more consistent. 

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The 12z GEFS 10 day snowfall mean ending 12z 2/25 shows that a farther north solution with accumulations around CLT up toward RIC and interior SE VA is still possible.

If you watch the below animation closely, which starts at 00z 2/17 and ends at 12z 2/24, a few members have some snowfall hits. You may also notice some of them have us getting snowfall from more than one system between those dates. However, there are also many rainy members, but just trying to point out something positive, at least from a surface depiction, that I see.

RADAR.thumb.gif.a29c1b2fa28905df27d10a62ed004af1.gif877091763_RADAR2.thumb.gif.ce3a50421fabc53b841cd2d9ca07fe8d.gif

MEAN.thumb.png.c85988f386ac9451a408be60696059b7.png1349679565_MEAN1.thumb.png.223c6d26ca3ea00fefdfb02ed4e31fe6.png

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1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Whats interesting on 12z  for PD was the NS and SJ almost phased but the block was too  strong and squished it all.   Had block  been any weaker may have turned out pretty nice.  Still time. 

The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-8257600.thumb.png.04eb2ca5abb8d84c0ac1e9b49a714cab.pngecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-snow_24hr-8322400.thumb.png.b018c730d4a9ca905b3ff394afbf1384.png

 

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So, looking at the EPS, I can identify the 18th-20th and the 23rd to 25th as the second threat. There are not many good snow hits for our region, and there are quite a few rainy members. I looked at places like PHL and NYC during this time frame, and some of the ensemble members have them performing very well, so there is still an outcome too far north on the table. My confidence at this time still needs to improve on whether or not this pattern will produce a satisfactory result. But it can still change in the coming days. 

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3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-8257600.thumb.png.04eb2ca5abb8d84c0ac1e9b49a714cab.pngecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-snow_24hr-8322400.thumb.png.b018c730d4a9ca905b3ff394afbf1384.png

 

There  is still hope

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The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits.

But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. B)

members.thumb.png.6c9d2d668c644f133835dd3d62d4d197.png

HECS000.jpg.49bcae2816214835f92a62c3ba28b431.jpgHECS00.jpg.66d061b08a41feae28b3bc066e8021ba.jpgHECS0.jpg.ddb0d555b47cf78d990fc156828b9e81.jpgHECS1.jpg.78cc0527f50fff27d980d1f098b4e32f.jpgHECS2.jpg.679dc5d63e72c7df80ea50d721919142.jpgHECS3.jpg.0624066c70df38fd491ffaf7c80d64bc.jpg

                           152892447_HECSSNOW.jpg.7e4a7c9f62a4d92e5903242eed469510.jpg

I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc.

Richmond: 11"

Ashland/Hanover: 11"

Chesterfield: 11"

West Point: 13"

Accomack: 18"

Norfolk: 19"

Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19"

Chesapeake: 22"

Petersburg: 23"

Chesapeake (Fentress) 24"

Wakefield: 24"

Currituck, NC: 24"

Elizabeth City, NC: 26"

Franklin: 27"

Williamsburg: 28"

Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28"

Suffolk: 28"

Langley AFB: 28"

Newport News: 28"

Emporia: 32"

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1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits.

But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. B)

members.thumb.png.6c9d2d668c644f133835dd3d62d4d197.png

HECS000.jpg.49bcae2816214835f92a62c3ba28b431.jpgHECS00.jpg.66d061b08a41feae28b3bc066e8021ba.jpgHECS0.jpg.ddb0d555b47cf78d990fc156828b9e81.jpgHECS1.jpg.78cc0527f50fff27d980d1f098b4e32f.jpgHECS2.jpg.679dc5d63e72c7df80ea50d721919142.jpgHECS3.jpg.0624066c70df38fd491ffaf7c80d64bc.jpg

                           152892447_HECSSNOW.jpg.7e4a7c9f62a4d92e5903242eed469510.jpg

I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc.

Richmond: 11"

Ashland/Hanover: 11"

Chesterfield: 11"

West Point: 13"

Accomack: 18"

Norfolk: 19"

Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19"

Chesapeake: 22"

Petersburg: 23"

Chesapeake (Fentress) 24"

Wakefield: 24"

Currituck, NC: 24"

Elizabeth City, NC: 26"

Franklin: 27"

Williamsburg: 28"

Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28"

Suffolk: 28"

Langley AFB: 28"

Newport News: 28"

Emporia: 32"

I will settle  for  12.3 inches

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35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table. days out.

The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z.

ORF1.thumb.png.ed0ccc3a98f9260cb95e8f526bc9f4d5.png

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