RVAman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We still need to be skeptical fellas. Euro is showing nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2024 at 4:22 PM, Conway7305 said: We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. Yup, usually around Montana is the golden spot. Also, and this is just for everyone's SA, the EPS only goes out to 360hrs while the GEFS goes out to 384. So, the EPS may catch up as we get closer within range. The window still seems to be the 18th-25th, and there could be just one or two different lows, something to keep in mind. Now that the operational Euro is within range, I'll start looking at more details at 500mb and comparing GFS/Euro. I prefer to avoid getting into the weeds beyond day 10 and look at the larger picture. i.e. teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 It's not like 12z, but at least we didnt lose the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Another hit for the area! I’m a little worried about suppression but I like how it’s trying to pull north up coast. Wish EURO would go out past 240 to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Nice look for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 18z ens snow maps and charts, fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z and 6z looked not great. Maybe we'll get lucky around PD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign. I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Oh where oh where could all the cold air be????!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The block is too strong for PD. Everything is suppressed. Need that block to weaken for storm to move North. Maybe when the block starts to weaken we can see storm chances increase later in week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, RVAman said: 0z and 6z looked not great. Maybe we'll get lucky around PD. 2 hours ago, JB Fins said: Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign. I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread. 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Oh where oh where could all the cold air be????!!!!! I decided to take a break until we see consistency. It's way too early to give up. As @Conway7305 alluded to, the ingredients are there, and every model will handle the features differently regarding strength and timing since we are still talking about 9-10 days away. Now that the operational Euro is within range let's focus on it and see how it handles everything. I understand the GFS runs before the Euro, but we tend to only focus on the GFS since it runs 4 times a day through 384 hours. The VD day storm is not even set in stone for places like NYC and BOS, and it's only a few days away. The GFS is still wobbling with that track, while the Euro has been more consistent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Whats interesting on 12z for PD was the NS and SJ almost phased but the block was too strong and squished it all. Had block been any weaker may have turned out pretty nice. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 The 12z GEFS 10 day snowfall mean ending 12z 2/25 shows that a farther north solution with accumulations around CLT up toward RIC and interior SE VA is still possible. If you watch the below animation closely, which starts at 00z 2/17 and ends at 12z 2/24, a few members have some snowfall hits. You may also notice some of them have us getting snowfall from more than one system between those dates. However, there are also many rainy members, but just trying to point out something positive, at least from a surface depiction, that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Whats interesting on 12z for PD was the NS and SJ almost phased but the block was too strong and squished it all. Had block been any weaker may have turned out pretty nice. Still time. The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Agreed, need to keep watching, the storms always trend north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A chase to Emerald Isle? I do like it down there. Yep, plenty of time for the inevitable northern trend but let's leave Tidewater and Currituck in there so we can all enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 So, looking at the EPS, I can identify the 18th-20th and the 23rd to 25th as the second threat. There are not many good snow hits for our region, and there are quite a few rainy members. I looked at places like PHL and NYC during this time frame, and some of the ensemble members have them performing very well, so there is still an outcome too far north on the table. My confidence at this time still needs to improve on whether or not this pattern will produce a satisfactory result. But it can still change in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If the MJO can scoot into phase 8 end of next week it will help with colder temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. There is still hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS gets some digital blue here PD, majority of precip still south but good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: GFS gets some digital blue here PD, majority of precip still south but good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits. But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc. Richmond: 11" Ashland/Hanover: 11" Chesterfield: 11" West Point: 13" Accomack: 18" Norfolk: 19" Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19" Chesapeake: 22" Petersburg: 23" Chesapeake (Fentress) 24" Wakefield: 24" Currituck, NC: 24" Elizabeth City, NC: 26" Franklin: 27" Williamsburg: 28" Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28" Suffolk: 28" Langley AFB: 28" Newport News: 28" Emporia: 32" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's like fantasizing what you would do if you won the Powerball jackpot of 500 million dollars. Exciting, then you realize it's never going to happen. But what if it does? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits. But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc. Richmond: 11" Ashland/Hanover: 11" Chesterfield: 11" West Point: 13" Accomack: 18" Norfolk: 19" Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19" Chesapeake: 22" Petersburg: 23" Chesapeake (Fentress) 24" Wakefield: 24" Currituck, NC: 24" Elizabeth City, NC: 26" Franklin: 27" Williamsburg: 28" Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28" Suffolk: 28" Langley AFB: 28" Newport News: 28" Emporia: 32" I will settle for 12.3 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: I will settle for 12.3 inches 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. Well, the 00z CMC did 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 49 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. I don't normally look at the Canadian, but fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Well, the 00z CMC did Maybe this will be one of the rare times it leads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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