RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 56 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS somewhat more south for both 2/13 and 2/18-19. 6z map for 18th-19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 So looking at the 00z GEFS/EPS and the 6z GEFS, I am please to say that I are now seeing the ensemble mean approaching where we were heading toward the mid-January threats. So, my confidence about this pattern producing something of substance has increased since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: So looking at the 00z GEFS/EPS and the 6z GEFS, I am please to say that I are now seeing the ensemble mean approaching where we were heading toward the mid-January threats. So, my confidence about this pattern producing something of substance has increased since yesterday afternoon. The 6z GEFS snowfall mean was high. Hopefully the 12z EPS continues to catch up. We are headed in the right direction. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 I am not believing the 12z GFS for next week until the Euro is on board. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 GFS crushes us for PD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, Shad said: FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow Yup, waiting on the next couple panels before I post the maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: GFS crushes us for PD 11 minutes ago, Shad said: FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow 10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, waiting on the next couple panels before I post the maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 lol damn that’s a HECS for Raleigh-RIC corridor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 I just added the full loop and removed the snow the GFS showed for the storm next week to my earlier post. This is a great sign for our area. Too bad it's still so far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Big time! However, I live in short pump and we only get 4 inches…lol I’m sure the ensemble members will be lit up. Really good to see a storm now and even the V Day storm is looking better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Too many hours out to get too excited just yet. Wait until after the V-Day storm before we drool. I'm skeptical of that storm as well, no other model is in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Super busy day but ..let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 32 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. Exactly what I was thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Exactly what I was thinking Not what I'm thinking. Let's get it down towards Charleston... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. The west / north trend has been happening this winter very similar to last years. I do agree it's in a good spot but a 100 miles shift NW could be killer for RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 This is a bit of a different setup from what we have seen this Winter.....id be a bit more worried about suppression at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Hey! do you happen to have the ensemble members for l2z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 32 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hey! do you happen to have the ensemble members for l2z GFS. Sorry, out and about today. Still a lot of support for next week’s storm, but I’m not believing it since the Euro is not in board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Sorry, out and about today. Still a lot of support for next week’s storm, but I’m not believing it since the Euro is not in board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 EPS is still very meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 For the love of God let this happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Long ways out still.. I still am ignoring next weeks V Day storm for here.. Maybe we will get some snow tv for a few secs at best (IMO) but again, looking to see what happends behind it and how much cold air it brings in is going to be Key.... The 19-20th storm could be a real boom or bust too... I Like the area it is in now but by this time next week we should have allot better idea of what may happen... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 We still need to be skeptical fellas. Euro is showing nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 4:22 PM, Conway7305 said: We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. Yup, usually around Montana is the golden spot. Also, and this is just for everyone's SA, the EPS only goes out to 360hrs while the GEFS goes out to 384. So, the EPS may catch up as we get closer within range. The window still seems to be the 18th-25th, and there could be just one or two different lows, something to keep in mind. Now that the operational Euro is within range, I'll start looking at more details at 500mb and comparing GFS/Euro. I prefer to avoid getting into the weeds beyond day 10 and look at the larger picture. i.e. teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 It's not like 12z, but at least we didnt lose the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Another hit for the area! I’m a little worried about suppression but I like how it’s trying to pull north up coast. Wish EURO would go out past 240 to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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