RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 I just added the full loop and removed the snow the GFS showed for the storm next week to my earlier post. This is a great sign for our area. Too bad it's still so far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Big time! However, I live in short pump and we only get 4 inches…lol I’m sure the ensemble members will be lit up. Really good to see a storm now and even the V Day storm is looking better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Too many hours out to get too excited just yet. Wait until after the V-Day storm before we drool. I'm skeptical of that storm as well, no other model is in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Super busy day but ..let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 32 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. Exactly what I was thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Exactly what I was thinking Not what I'm thinking. Let's get it down towards Charleston... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: Right where you want it this far out. We know what happens when we are in the bullseye this far out, DC gets jackpotted, applying the same non-scientific weenie logic to this, as we want NC in that zone before the inevitable jogging trend to the north. The west / north trend has been happening this winter very similar to last years. I do agree it's in a good spot but a 100 miles shift NW could be killer for RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 This is a bit of a different setup from what we have seen this Winter.....id be a bit more worried about suppression at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Hey! do you happen to have the ensemble members for l2z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 32 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hey! do you happen to have the ensemble members for l2z GFS. Sorry, out and about today. Still a lot of support for next week’s storm, but I’m not believing it since the Euro is not in board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Sorry, out and about today. Still a lot of support for next week’s storm, but I’m not believing it since the Euro is not in board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 EPS is still very meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 For the love of God let this happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 Long ways out still.. I still am ignoring next weeks V Day storm for here.. Maybe we will get some snow tv for a few secs at best (IMO) but again, looking to see what happends behind it and how much cold air it brings in is going to be Key.... The 19-20th storm could be a real boom or bust too... I Like the area it is in now but by this time next week we should have allot better idea of what may happen... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 We still need to be skeptical fellas. Euro is showing nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 On 2/8/2024 at 4:22 PM, Conway7305 said: We need ridge to setup more towards the plains and not rockies on the EURO. Still plenty of time. Yup, usually around Montana is the golden spot. Also, and this is just for everyone's SA, the EPS only goes out to 360hrs while the GEFS goes out to 384. So, the EPS may catch up as we get closer within range. The window still seems to be the 18th-25th, and there could be just one or two different lows, something to keep in mind. Now that the operational Euro is within range, I'll start looking at more details at 500mb and comparing GFS/Euro. I prefer to avoid getting into the weeds beyond day 10 and look at the larger picture. i.e. teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 It's not like 12z, but at least we didnt lose the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm. Another hit for the area! I’m a little worried about suppression but I like how it’s trying to pull north up coast. Wish EURO would go out past 240 to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Nice look for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 18z ens snow maps and charts, fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 0z and 6z looked not great. Maybe we'll get lucky around PD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign. I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Oh where oh where could all the cold air be????!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 The block is too strong for PD. Everything is suppressed. Need that block to weaken for storm to move North. Maybe when the block starts to weaken we can see storm chances increase later in week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 3 hours ago, RVAman said: 0z and 6z looked not great. Maybe we'll get lucky around PD. 2 hours ago, JB Fins said: Yeah, I figured when I login and check in the morning and RIC Airport has not posted, it's not a good sign. I have now reached a scary tipping point where I am almost rooting for our futility to continue and wallow in freakish misery (name the movie) so it can be worn as a red badge of courage in the main thread. 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Oh where oh where could all the cold air be????!!!!! I decided to take a break until we see consistency. It's way too early to give up. As @Conway7305 alluded to, the ingredients are there, and every model will handle the features differently regarding strength and timing since we are still talking about 9-10 days away. Now that the operational Euro is within range let's focus on it and see how it handles everything. I understand the GFS runs before the Euro, but we tend to only focus on the GFS since it runs 4 times a day through 384 hours. The VD day storm is not even set in stone for places like NYC and BOS, and it's only a few days away. The GFS is still wobbling with that track, while the Euro has been more consistent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Whats interesting on 12z for PD was the NS and SJ almost phased but the block was too strong and squished it all. Had block been any weaker may have turned out pretty nice. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 The 12z GEFS 10 day snowfall mean ending 12z 2/25 shows that a farther north solution with accumulations around CLT up toward RIC and interior SE VA is still possible. If you watch the below animation closely, which starts at 00z 2/17 and ends at 12z 2/24, a few members have some snowfall hits. You may also notice some of them have us getting snowfall from more than one system between those dates. However, there are also many rainy members, but just trying to point out something positive, at least from a surface depiction, that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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