RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 33 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor. I added a few maps to my post after you quoted me. And as the saying goes, the models usually sniff out the big ones early. The GFS has shown this storm at our latitude for the last seven runs since yesterday's 00z run. This is how the 18z Tuesday GFS looked when it and earlier runs had the storm well south of us. So, I agree with everyone that things can change since we are still talking 300 hours out. Just hoping we aren't on the fringes and most of us are solidly in the game for 6"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 Still concerned there is no warm air. This PD storm could end up just like the VD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 16 minutes ago, RVAman said: Still concerned there is no warm air. This PD storm could end up just like the VD storm. I'm not going to lie and say I'm not concerned, given the persistence of this winter and the core of the coldest air staying just to our north and west. But, as @eaglesin2011 mentioned, we probably will know how the models will handle the storm around PD day when the VD storm passes. In the coming days, I'll look for clues at the 500 MB level. I try not to get into the nitty gritty details until closer to the event, like around Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 I was not overly impressed with the 12z GEFS. The below loop starts at 00z 2/16 and ends at 12z 2/23. Some hits, some misses, and quite a few rainy members for that period. p28 was the most snow for RIC with 11", and p13 dropped 5" at ORF, but there were just as many misses, if not more, than hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 5 hours ago, Shad said: nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong? A lot can go wrong, but there were better hits up your way on the 12z GEFS, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 There is the storm at Day 10 on the Euro. EPS will be interesting with this look. The flow is flat looking so hopefully it doesn't track too far south of us. But, verbatim this looks suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: There is the storm at Day 10 on the Euro. EPS will be interesting with this look. The flow is flat looking so hopefully it doesn't track too far south of us. But, verbatim this looks suppressed. Good news is both GFS and EURO show a storm (Potentially BIG) with juiced up STJ. We don’t want too much of a block, otherwise supression. To little of a block is a cutter or rainstorm. Hoping we find middle ground. NAO block has weakened a little past few runs but still there so that’s good news. Lots of waves coming on shore so no shortage of storms. We just need good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 46 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Good news is both GFS and EURO show a storm (Potentially BIG) with juiced up STJ. We don’t want too much of a block, otherwise supression. To little of a block is a cutter or rainstorm. Hoping we find middle ground. NAO block has weakened a little past few runs but still there so that’s good news. Lots of waves coming on shore so no shortage of storms. We just need good timing. I like the optimism, and I am trying to remain positive. While I understand that even the ensembles are subject to fluctuations, we had better looks going into the mid-January threats. I am not yet seeing that level as both the EPS/GEFS continues to look rather bleak as we approach mid-late February. I want to see a solid hit on at least 10 of 30 ensembles on the GEFS before I get confident. But, we've been maxing out at around 5 or so. For EPS, I think 18-20 hits would probably be ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 @Shad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Shad I remember the 2016 Storm models initially had a rain storm for 5-6 days in LR a then about a week before the storm it trended colder and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 @RIC Airportdidn’t the Dec 9 2018 big snow come after some pretty warm early Dec temps or no? I thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 7, 2024 Share Posted February 7, 2024 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. The pattern change advertised since mid dec still not happening especially with another big storm coming into California. Im still on board with a perfect winter storm pattern change occuring in late March when it doesnt matter. Hopefully the 18 gfs is just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportdidn’t the Dec 9 2018 big snow come after some pretty warm early Dec temps or no? I thought it was. Highs were in the 40s for five days before that storm. And don't forget, RIC reached 72°F on 1/2/2022 before 3-5" fell the next day. One of the best examples of extreme warmth here before a snowstorm was the 3/3/2014 storm when RIC reached 73°F on 3/2/2014 and recorded 3.0" the next day. It was a solid 4-8" event for most of the state, then RIC hit 11°F the following day. It was also 69°F two days before the March 1-2, 2009 storm, just as arctic air was pressing down. It was also a Miller A storm that even brought snow to Atlanta. So, those types of situations have had success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7, 2024 Author Share Posted February 7, 2024 33 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. As I mentioned earlier, it may not even be THE storm. When you look at the ensembles, if you believe they are useful, there appears to be more than one opportunity for snow around PD day and then beyond that around the 21st or 22nd, which is when the -NAO is slated to start weakening. 28 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The pattern change advertised since mid dec still not happening especially with another big storm coming into California. Im still on board with a perfect winter storm pattern change occuring in late March when it doesnt matter. Hopefully the 18 gfs is just a blip. It has been a frustrating winter for many. We are running out of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 18z GEFS is a nice improvement. It's not over, there are some nice hits, best looking chart of the day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 39 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z GEFS is a nice improvement. It's not over, there are some nice hits, best looking chart of the day. nice!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z GEFS is a nice improvement. It's not over, there are some nice hits, best looking chart of the day. Hopefully it will improve tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Hopefully it will improve tonight I will disengage from run-to-run monitoring until we see consistency. The 00z GFS introduces the idea of two storms. 18-19 and then another the 21st-22nd. The 1st storm is rain, but the second is a rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I will disengage from run-to-run monitoring until we see consistency. The 00z GFS introduces the idea of two storms. 18-19 and then another the 21st-22nd. The 1st storm is rain, but the second is a rain to snow scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 6z GFS somewhat more south for both 2/13 and 2/18-19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 56 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS somewhat more south for both 2/13 and 2/18-19. 6z map for 18th-19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 So looking at the 00z GEFS/EPS and the 6z GEFS, I am please to say that I are now seeing the ensemble mean approaching where we were heading toward the mid-January threats. So, my confidence about this pattern producing something of substance has increased since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: So looking at the 00z GEFS/EPS and the 6z GEFS, I am please to say that I are now seeing the ensemble mean approaching where we were heading toward the mid-January threats. So, my confidence about this pattern producing something of substance has increased since yesterday afternoon. The 6z GEFS snowfall mean was high. Hopefully the 12z EPS continues to catch up. We are headed in the right direction. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 I am not believing the 12z GFS for next week until the Euro is on board. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 GFS crushes us for PD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 Just now, Shad said: FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow Yup, waiting on the next couple panels before I post the maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8, 2024 Author Share Posted February 8, 2024 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: GFS crushes us for PD 11 minutes ago, Shad said: FOLKS....check out the GFS is you havnt.....wow 10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, waiting on the next couple panels before I post the maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2024 Share Posted February 8, 2024 lol damn that’s a HECS for Raleigh-RIC corridor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now