Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

15 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices.

OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 

13 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lets hope  so

I peaked at the 18z GEFS; this was the best run all day. Had a few good hits between the 18th and 20th. Just needs some consistency as its earlier runs and even the 00z and 12z EPS were unremarkable. 

 

[RIC Airport]

I just peaked at the Euro weeklies, and everything looks favorable at h5 through March 22nd. These fluctuate daily, but the snow mean map had its highest numbers in about a week.

Maybe we can get something record breaking like Nova Scotia, @Stormpc.

[JB Fins]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

I found these in the RTD archives. They should have listed the location in the last photo, but it's probably the same area. I wasn't born until 6/1981, but I could recognize where these were taken. All the people, the buses, and the snow plows show how we were more accustomed to getting snow than we are today. 

The below was taken downtown after the January 2016 storm, notice no people, no cars/busses, no plows. 

Interestingly, there were already 3 to 4 inches of snow on the ground from a 6.4 inch snowstorm that hit back on 2/7/1979. Look at how deep the snow depth got on 2/19/1979. That was also a frigid month. Richmond hit -8°F a few days after that storm. It's too bad we haven't seen many months with this type of cold/snow combo since. February 2010 featured a 16-day stretch with snow on the ground, the longest stretch January 1996. 

That’s my building dead center JC1, where I work, I should say.

It’s funny how the area shuts down with an inch of snow where we went to school with it on the roads sometimes.  It had to be completely covered back then.

[Conway7305]

0z  GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day.  Northern VA has more.  Still plenty of time 

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z  GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day.  Northern VA has more.  Still plenty of time 

I dont like it, we are on the fringes. 

[RIC Airport]

Doesn’t seem to have much ensemble support. But like you said, @Conway7305there is plenty of time. Just not wanting us to be on the fringes like a few weeks ago. 
 

 

[ldub23]

RIC  has a shot but the  southern end  of  snow  never  verifies, nothing  here.

[RIC Airport]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

RIC  has a shot but the  southern end  of  snow  never  verifies, nothing  here.

The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 

6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they try to phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. 

 

Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run.

[RIC Airport]

21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 

6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. 

FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. 

[Conway7305]

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. 

Yeah looks like 14th storm jumped North.  Hopefully the suppressed storm threat for PD can trend further north.  

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run.

So, looking at the rest of the 6z GEFS run, I start this loop at 00z Monday, 2/19, and it ends at 6z Thursday, 2/22. Notice a handful of hits, especially around the 21st to the 22nd. But you can also see some rainy members and shut outs.

 

The map below is the entire 6z GEFS run. Notice how much more snow is on some of the members because of the hits later in the period. 

[RIC Airport]

12Z GFS was farther south than 6z, but was warmer and thus a rainstorm for all. 

[eaglesin2011]

Seems about right to me.. The cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now…

 

[RIC Airport]

 

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Seems about right to me.. cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now…

Yup, although the 12Z GEFS showed potential next Monday or Tuesday, I am more interested later on. The dates are fluctuating because of timing differences from run to run, but we are generally talking about the 19th (PD) and later. As @ldub23stated, Richmond has a shot, I am not as confident about the chances for SE VA, NE NC as there are more misses than hits on the ensemble runs through the end of the period. 

 

[eaglesin2011]

Yeah,  I saw the 19th chance too .. I  would like to see a few models in a row keep the snow chance around before calling it a real possibility…

[Conway7305]

Lots of coastal lows showing up PD. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Quite a few hits even for next week on the EPS. Things that makes you go hmmmmmm.
Then they pick up again around the 19th-21st at the end of the run. 
 

[mikeeng92]

19th looks very interesting 

[ldub23]

JB says the  cold will be  centered  over the east this  time when the  pattern changes and  i really  doubt the  pattern will change.

 

 

[Conway7305]

0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD.  Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run.  Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much as North central VA, maybe I am looking at it wrong. Wait till accumulation maps come out.

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD.  Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run.  Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much. 

We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change.

[mikeeng92]

You know this storm is real cause it’s showing the classic west end to RIC cutoff lol. 
 

just want to see a storm keep showing up, with blocking we’ll have chance 

[Conway7305]

8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change.

Just happy  to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line.  I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Just happy  to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line.  I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 

I agree, just have PTSD from PD II  because, verbatim, we are a rain changing to ZR, IP, then snow. I'm always nervous about that situation here because, about half the time, it doesn't get as cold as fast as we'd want, especially at the mid-levels. But, hopefully, this will trend better for us. Ideally, we'd get at least 6 inches, but something more would be even better. We haven't had a 6"+ snowstorm in almost 6 years, which is pretty long, even for us. 

 

Juicy system though. Somebody would get a lot of snow for sure.

[eaglesin2011]

Hell for how the last few years have been I’d cash out now for that result in a second if I could.

Especially with the marginal temps still on the 19th… 

[ldub23]

RIC jackpot

 

[RIC Airport]

Now this is more like it.  

 

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

RIC jackpot

It's too bad it's 300 hours away, but this is the outcome we need, even if there is a little bit of IP/ZR to deal with. 

[eaglesin2011]

Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens..

[RIC Airport]

25 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens..

Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air.  

 

6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start.