Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. 

Yeah looks like 14th storm jumped North.  Hopefully the suppressed storm threat for PD can trend further north.  

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run.

So, looking at the rest of the 6z GEFS run, I start this loop at 00z Monday, 2/19, and it ends at 6z Thursday, 2/22. Notice a handful of hits, especially around the 21st to the 22nd. But you can also see some rainy members and shut outs.

 

The map below is the entire 6z GEFS run. Notice how much more snow is on some of the members because of the hits later in the period. 

[RIC Airport]

12Z GFS was farther south than 6z, but was warmer and thus a rainstorm for all. 

[eaglesin2011]

Seems about right to me.. The cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now…

 

[RIC Airport]

 

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Seems about right to me.. cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now…

Yup, although the 12Z GEFS showed potential next Monday or Tuesday, I am more interested later on. The dates are fluctuating because of timing differences from run to run, but we are generally talking about the 19th (PD) and later. As @ldub23stated, Richmond has a shot, I am not as confident about the chances for SE VA, NE NC as there are more misses than hits on the ensemble runs through the end of the period. 

 

[eaglesin2011]

Yeah,  I saw the 19th chance too .. I  would like to see a few models in a row keep the snow chance around before calling it a real possibility…

[Conway7305]

Lots of coastal lows showing up PD. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Quite a few hits even for next week on the EPS. Things that makes you go hmmmmmm.
Then they pick up again around the 19th-21st at the end of the run. 
 

[mikeeng92]

19th looks very interesting 

[ldub23]

JB says the  cold will be  centered  over the east this  time when the  pattern changes and  i really  doubt the  pattern will change.

 

 

[Conway7305]

0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD.  Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run.  Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much as North central VA, maybe I am looking at it wrong. Wait till accumulation maps come out.

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD.  Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run.  Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much. 

We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change.

[mikeeng92]

You know this storm is real cause it’s showing the classic west end to RIC cutoff lol. 
 

just want to see a storm keep showing up, with blocking we’ll have chance 

[Conway7305]

8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change.

Just happy  to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line.  I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Just happy  to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line.  I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 

I agree, just have PTSD from PD II  because, verbatim, we are a rain changing to ZR, IP, then snow. I'm always nervous about that situation here because, about half the time, it doesn't get as cold as fast as we'd want, especially at the mid-levels. But, hopefully, this will trend better for us. Ideally, we'd get at least 6 inches, but something more would be even better. We haven't had a 6"+ snowstorm in almost 6 years, which is pretty long, even for us. 

 

Juicy system though. Somebody would get a lot of snow for sure.

[eaglesin2011]

Hell for how the last few years have been I’d cash out now for that result in a second if I could.

Especially with the marginal temps still on the 19th… 

[ldub23]

RIC jackpot

 

[RIC Airport]

Now this is more like it.  

 

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

RIC jackpot

It's too bad it's 300 hours away, but this is the outcome we need, even if there is a little bit of IP/ZR to deal with. 

[eaglesin2011]

Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens..

[RIC Airport]

25 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens..

Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air.  

 

6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start.

[RIC Airport]

Last night's EPS was quite an improvement as well. I guess next week's threat isn't quite dead in the water.

I added OFP and PHF charts as well. 

[Shad]

nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong?

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air.  

 

6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start.

Good news is many of us have seen this multiple times in different places, where it’s in the 50s and even lower 60s one day, and a big snowstorm the next day.

[TampaMan]

41 minutes ago, Shad said:

nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong?

Better than absolutely nothing. 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Better than absolutely nothing. 

Also, with the pattern change, conditions will be much more ripe for possible snowstorms in our area than they have been for a very long time. So this adds to the confidence of swing at least a SECS or MECS. 

[eaglesin2011]

Problem  is the cold air just hasn’t set in & may not completely for any of these storms…

The V Day storm is pretty much certain to be all rain here. Hopefully it will start to pull the cold air down after it.. Then set up the storms starting  next weekend…

We also don’t want the 20th storm to go too far north .. could start & then end as rain if that happens..

Hate to say it but probably won’t know allot more until after the V day storm passes…

At least there looks to be a few more chances in the upcoming weeks…lol

 

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Good news is many of us have seen this multiple times in different places, where it’s in the 50s and even lower 60s one day, and a big snowstorm the next day.

Every setup is different; I can recall quite a few that had warm temperatures before. On 2/19/2012, RIC had 4" of snow, and the high reached 61°F on 2/18/2012. Also, on 12/5/2005, RIC recorded 4.2" of snow, and it hit 64°F the day before that. There are other examples.

But, there have been quite a few cases where it hasn't worked out, such as 2/11/2006 and 2/16/2003. We had accumulations from these events, but those storms were far below expectations because of a delay in cold either at the surface, or we got screwed because of warm air at the 700mb level. 

48 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Problem  is the cold air just hasn’t set in & may not completely for any of these storms…

The V Day storm is pretty much certain to be all rain here. Hopefully it will start to pull the cold air down after it.. Then set up the storms starting  next weekend…

We also don’t want the 20th storm to go too far north .. could start & then end as rain if that happens..

Hate to say it but probably won’t know allot more until after the V day storm passes…

At least there looks to be a few more chances in the upcoming weeks…lol

The VD storm is rain on the 12z GFS. I'm still surprised it was getting so much support on the ensembles. We've seen last-minute shifts, such as 1/3/2018, 12/9/2018, 12/26/2010, 1/25/2000, and 2/16/1996, but I'm not feeling that.

We are in deep trouble if the end of the month doesn't pan out. I always tell people snow season isn't over until March 31st,  but relying on March to save the winter isn't a great predicament to be in. That said, March has rivaled December, at least historically, for snowfall averages. It can produce. 

[RIC Airport]

12z GFS is back north for 2/18/ to 2/19. This will continue to fluctuate since it's so far out. The last 10 days of the month are still the window. There are different pieces of energy around, and who knows which one will even be the storm. 

[JFLETCHER]

4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z GFS is back north for 2/18/ to 2/19. This will continue to fluctuate since it's so far out. The last 10 days of the month are still the window. There are different pieces of energy around, and who knows which one will even be the storm. 

I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor.